Baltimore recorded fewer homicides last month than in any other January in 30 years, continuing a slowed pace of killings that began last summer. City leaders say that one death is tragic but that they hope the downturn will continue and erase the image of a city burdened by crime.
The 14 homicides last month were the fewest for the first month of the year since 1978, when there were 13, and half the number in January last year. There were 29 homicides in January 2006 and 32 in January 2005.
Law enforcement officials say it is too early to tell whether measures they have taken to deter gun violence have changed behavior on city streets, but they note that the 112 homicides in Baltimore since Aug. 1 are the fewest for that stretch since 1988.
"Now is not the time to sit back and bask in six months' worth of accomplishment," Police Commissioner Frederick H. Bealefeld III said in an interview yesterday. "Now is the time to push harder.
"Have people lost their will for violence? Are people getting the message? Is there a shift in culture? I just don't think so - not this quickly. We're talking about a city with a history of violence that goes back for quite some time."
Mayor Sheila Dixon said the numbers are positive but "nothing to celebrate."
"One death is too many," she said. "What this tells us is that for the last eight months, a plan has been in place that focuses on the most violent offenders, and that it's working."
Dixon and law enforcement officials pointed to better collaboration in recent months among police, prosecutors and other local, state and federal agencies, which have become more focused on reducing homicides and gun crimes.
As homicides and nonfatal shootings declined in the last half of 2007, city police spent $4.7 million less on overtime than in the corresponding period in 2006.
"There is no disconnect in what the mission is," Dixon said. "The police are out there, and they're visible. All these are factors, but we all have a long way to go, and we're going to continue to build on this."
Sharp swings in violent crime patterns in many U.S. cities have been common in recent years, according to a study released in November by the Police Executive Research Forum.
Richard Rosenfeld, a professor of criminology and criminal justice at the University of Missouri-St. Louis, said Baltimore's recent downturn in homicides and shootings reflects the sharp swings in other cities, including St. Louis.
"Join the club," he said.
Rosenfeld said he thinks Baltimore is in the midst of a short-term lull and predicted that crime will worsen if the economy sours. "I wouldn't expect it to last long," he said. "I think that there's no question that the economy is going to make itself felt in rising crime rates by the end of 2008. So, it's a respite is my best guess, and probably brief."
Rosenfeld did say there are indicators that could show that law enforcement efforts are paying off.
If the biggest declines are in categories involving firearms, it could indicate that violence-suppression efforts are working, he said. In January, Baltimore recorded significant declines in homicides, nonfatal shootings and aggravated assaults, and common assaults were down slightly.
Other officials and experts involved in addressing Baltimore's crime problem agreed yesterday that police, prosecutors, parole and probation agents, and other city and nongovernmental entities have been collaborating much better in recent months.
Gov. Martin O'Malley said he thinks a new focus on crime prevention in the Division of Parole and Probation, plus a renewed sense of cooperation between the major players in the city and state governments and the U.S. attorney's office, has made a real difference in public safety.
"It's just a lot better now," O'Malley said. "It almost seemed for the last four years if we were trying to improve public safety, it was somehow contradictory to other statewide political agendas, but now we're all aligned with the reality that if the city becomes safer, it's better for the whole state."
The city's law enforcement efforts have been more sharply focused on criminals who carry guns. Last spring, city police formed a gun-tracing task force, which investigates ways to target gun offenders. By mid-2007, the number of nonfatal shootings had risen 35 percent. By the end of the year, however, police reported an increase of 2 percent.
The city's homicide rate during the first six months of last year was on a pace to surpass 300 by the end of the year. But gun violence slowed, and the city ended the year with 282 homicides.
"I think that [Bealefeld] has appropriately set his sights on gun violence and gun offenders, and that's where you need to focus your sights if the objective is to reduce homicides," said Daniel Webster, an associate professor and co-director of the Johns Hopkins University's Center for Gun Policy and Research.
"I think that way of thinking is starting to go through the ranks and how the police go about their business," he said.
Officials with the city state's attorney's office and the Maryland Division of Parole and Probation said they are working more closely with each other and with the city Police Department.
Margaret T. Burns, a spokeswoman for the city state's attorney's office, credited Dixon with helping improve communication between prosecutors, police and City Hall, relationships that had grown strained under the O'Malley administration.
"It's beyond better," Burns said. "It's really so exciting and positive. I have not seen this level of cooperation in the past. We've been moving in this direction, but over the last several months there's a new level of trust between our agencies."
Burns said city prosecutors have pushed harder for higher bail - or no bail - for criminals caught with guns, which has helped keep violent offenders locked up until trial. She also credited the expanding influence of Maryland U.S. Attorney Rod J. Rosenstein, whose federal prosecutors have aggressively pursued repeat violent offenders through a program called Project Exile.
Patrick McGee, acting director of the state Division of Parole and Probation, said his agency was asked by the O'Malley administration early last year to sharpen its focus on the offenders it tracked who were involved with gun crimes. Last summer, the division reviewed its caseload of violent offenders and worked closely with a consultant and city police to determine trends among victims and killers who had been under supervision, he said.
gus.sentementes@baltsun.com
Sun reporter Nick Madigan contributed to this article.