As the Howard County Council prepares for tomorrow's vote on the first school enrollment projections in 15 years that show no overcrowded classrooms, newer figures are troubling officials.
A more recent set of estimates for 2010 -- newer than the charts the council is to vote on -- show crowding popping up more quickly than expected at Northfield Elementary School in Ellicott City and at three middle schools, including Harper's Choice in west Columbia. Northfield is to embark on a major renovation by next summer, but no new seats were planned.
Under Howard's growth-control laws, that could mean development delays in areas such as central Columbia, where thousands of new residences are planned, and heightened political pressure to find more tax revenue to build classrooms and renovate older schools.
"History would point out that the county won't be able to [afford] both," said Councilwoman Mary Kay Sigaty, a west Columbia Democrat.
Schools are considered overcrowded if they are at least 15 percent over capacity.
In the chart that the County Council is set to approve, Northfield is shown as being 10 percent over capacity in 2010. But in the newer survey, the school is projected to be 25 percent over capacity that year -- a difference of 81 children. School officials said younger families are replacing older couples in the area faster than earlier estimates showed.
"It is a tremendous change," said Northfield's new PTA president, Deby Sweren. "There's a huge discrepancy in the numbers."
At the same time, the new estimates show Mount View Middle 17 percent over capacity in 2012, with Harper's Choice Middle 20 percent over capacity in 2013 and Ellicott Mills Middle 26 percent over capacity in 2013.
But in the western county, where two new elementary school buildings -- each with 788 seats -- were built to house Bushy Park and Dayton Oaks, the new charts show many empty seats in 2010.
Dayton Oaks is predicted to be at 66 percent of capacity, while Bushy Park would be at 83 percent in the building that is set to open next month.
Rather than celebrating this year's charts as a triumphant end to years of school crowding problems, Councilwoman Courtney Watson, an Ellicott City Democrat and former school board member, said she is seeing a different message.
"To me, it's definitely more of a lull," she said. "We just don't know yet. With the new growth in Columbia, that is certainly going to impact that chart."
School Superintendent Sydney L. Cousin took an even broader view.
"This is a community concern, not just a school concern," he said. "We have to find a sustainable revenue source for the county budget."
That's a battle that likely will come to a head just as the state's budget crunch could crimp, not expand, the county's treasury.
The school board is facing major new expenses for renovations at four older high schools -- starting with Mount Hebron, which could cost as much as $90 million to renovate or replace.
The newest enrollment charts, compiled as the first step in a yearlong process that will end with a similar County Council vote next July, do not count any of the thousands of new residences planned for west Columbia because rezoning for that has not taken place.
Joel Gallihew, manager of school planning, who is responsible for the charts, said the new estimates are the beginning of a new capital budget process but should not be substituted for the chart that the County Council is to vote on tomorrow.
"To go back and slip in [new] numbers is only going to confuse people," he said.
Sigaty agreed.
"We have to have something that we've set up as our 'official' numbers," she said. "Otherwise we're chasing our tails."
The school board will spend the next several months considering the new results in crafting a building plan for fiscal 2009, which starts July 1 next year.
Gallihew said he is also concerned about the U.S. 1 corridor, where land for schools is scarce, but where hundreds of new townhouses and apartments are scheduled for construction in the next few years.
Under Howard County law, school enrollment projections trigger development delays of up to four years around schools that are more than 15 percent over their rated capacities. That gives the county time to redistrict or build classrooms.
Diane Mikulis, the school board chairman, noted that the newest figures point to problems three to five years from now.
"The good news is we're not even looking at redistricting for the next couple years," she said.
The board could move some middle school students from Harper's Choice to underused Folly Quarter by 2013 to solve that problem, she said.
Other council votes
Besides the school enrollment projection charts, the County Council is scheduled to vote on a number of important bills and resolutions tomorrow night.
One bill, sponsored by Councilwoman Jen Terrasa, a North Laurel-Savage Democrat, would provide binding arbitration for contract disputes between county firefighters and police officers and the county administration. Voters overwhelmingly approved this in concept in the November 2006 election.
Another bill, sponsored by Chairman Calvin Ball, an east Columbia Democrat, and Terrasa, would establish a living wage of $12.41 an hour -- which is 25 percent higher than the federal poverty level -- for employees of firms with at least five workers doing at least $100,000 in business with the county.
Ball said at a work session last week that the bill would mainly affect contract janitorial workers and would likely have a minimal financial impact, perhaps $100,000 the first year.
Votes also are scheduled on a package of five bills and resolutions that would push and pull developers toward County Executive Ken Ulman's goal of having more environmentally friendly "green" buildings constructed in the county.
larry.carson@baltsun.com