While the political consequences of firing a police commissioner two months before an election remain unclear, several experts predicted yesterday that the potentially risky decision may ultimately pay off for Mayor Sheila Dixon's campaign.
She as already ahead in the polls, and her ouster of Leonard D. Hamm seemed to have an instant effect on the tenor of the race, neutralizing criticism by her leading opponents and presenting the image, at least, that the mayor is taking decisive action.
Dixon's decision to replace Hamm came after her opponents in the Democratic primary race - including City Councilman Keiffer J. Mitchell Jr. and Del. Jill P. Carter - spent weeks demanding change in the Police Department's leadership and trumpeting their own proposals for how to deal with violence in the city.
"I think it was an essential move," said Donald F. Norris, a professor of public policy at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County. "The [crime] trend began essentially around the time that she took office, and she has not been seen doing anything about it so she has to do something; otherwise, it could hurt her in the election."
There have been 178 homicides in Baltimore this year, up from 149 at the same point last year, police said.
Dixon said politics played no role in Hamm's departure, but her decision came days after a poll conducted for The Sun showed that more than two-thirds of likely Democratic voters named crime as the top issue facing the city. The same poll found that 38 percent of voters thought that Hamm was ineffective as police chief and that 26 percent thought that he was effective.
Dixon said her campaign has conducted its own poll on crime. Yesterday, during an interview at City Hall, she called the decision to replace Hamm "difficult, but not because of Keiffer telling me to do this."
"They're only looking from the outside," she said of her opponents. "And there are so many factors that they don't even see or understand."
Both Carter and Mitchell attributed Dixon's decision to the poll.
"Now that our city is in the throes of death and all of these homicides, I think that the failure of the mayor to take leadership on it is indicative of the ineptness and the lack of leadership we have in the city," said Carter, standing on a street corner at a campaign event in East Baltimore yesterday.
Mitchell, who rescheduled his news conference on crime yesterday, also said he believed Dixon made her move for the wrong reasons. He pointed to myriad problems facing the Police Department, such as low morale, a growing gang problem and Dixon's flip-flopping on strategies, such as pulling back foot patrols for homicide detectives.
"The bottom line is I believe this had to do more with politics than public safety," said Mitchell. "It came out after the Sun poll. She said that she was constantly evaluating and deliberating, and if you look at it, this is the first Cabinet appointment that's changed since she's been in office, and it came after a poll."
The Sun's poll, conducted by Annapolis-based OpinionWorks, showed that 47 percent of likely voters support Dixon, while 15 percent are backing Mitchell. Schools administrator Andrey Bundley received 4 percent, while Carter and Circuit Court Clerk Frank M. Conaway received 2 percent each.
"We can tell that residents are extremely worried and frustrated about crime, and we can tell that there is a tremendous desire for firm action on this difficult issue," said Steve Raabe, president and founder of OpinionWorks. "This move probably is going to help her. She'll be seen as taking some action and trying to make a change."
What happens next is crucial, experts said. If the number of homicides and shootings continues to rise, blame could quickly shift from the Police Department's command staff to the mayor herself.
"Whether she is going to be able to replace him with someone who will be able to get the murder rate back under control is another question," said Norris.
Matthew Crenson, a political scientist at the Johns Hopkins University, said firing Hamm has pluses and negatives for Dixon's reputation and political future. Ultimately, he thinks, the impact will be "a plus, by a very slender margin."
"On the one hand, Commissioner Hamm has become a target for opponents in the election, and his resignation eliminates that target," he said. "On the other hand, by asking for Hamm's resignation, she acknowledges the validity of the criticisms that have been leveled at her and the commissioner about management problems in the Police Department, and she also reopens the long-running issue of excessive turnover of police commissioners."
Turnover of city police commissioners has been a political issue in the past, including in last year's gubernatorial election. Then-Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. often noted that Mayor Martin O'Malley had burned through three police commissioners before settling on Hamm in 2004. One of O'Malley's staunchest enemies, Baltimore State's Attorney Patricia C. Jessamy, was quick to bring up the issue again yesterday.
"For the first time, after a succession of eight police commissioners serving the Mayor O'Malley administration, Mayor Dixon has sought my opinion and counsel on how we can work together, in the best interest of our citizens," Jessamy said in a statement. "I believe that this type of partnership will make a difference and end this deadly grip of violence on our city."
O'Malley had four, not eight, commissioners over seven years. The other commissioners she referred to were interim.
Still unclear is whether there could be any political repercussions for allowing Deputy Commissioner Frederick H. Bealefeld III - who is white - to take over as an acting commissioner in a city that is predominantly black.
In The Sun's poll, for example, white voters were significantly more undecided than black voters about Hamm's effectiveness. Only 19 percent of white voters said he was effective, compared with 30 percent of black voters. Forty-one percent of white voters were unsure about Hamm, compared with 33 percent of blacks.
john.fritze@baltsun.com sumathi.reddy@baltsun.com