Now is not the time to have any illusions about an American military withdrawal from Iraq. The Democratic candidates for president, in particular, act as though U.S. soldiers and Marines can depart in a way that will minimize the turmoil in the country they leave behind. That's wishful thinking; it's likely to get very ugly. A reasonably planned withdrawal is nonetheless the right thing to do.
We have argued in the past that there are no good options in Iraq. That's not just a turn of phrase. If there were a course of action that would bring about stability, promote reconciliation and stop the damage to America's interests and reputation, pursuing it would be an easy choice. We don't see such a course.
As David Wood of The Sun reported on Sunday, getting out of Iraq is going to be an enormously complicated job, and if it takes place under fire, it will be a perilous one, as well. The 20 battalions in Iraq have brought in a huge amount of equipment over the past four years - some of it could be turned over to America's Iraqi allies, if they can be reliably identified. Most of the materiel would have to be extricated.
Pentagon war games, as reported in yesterday's Washington Post, suggest that Iraq during and after a U.S. withdrawal would divide into three parts, with plenty of ethnic cleansing accompanying the division. It's difficult to predict the level of violence. Iran might be dragged into an intra-Shiite conflict in the south. Other neighbors would try to play roles as well. Al-Qaida in Iraq would be unlikely to gain a free hand in Sunni areas.
President Bush and his dwindling band of supporters believe victory and reconciliation are achievable. Last week, he cited "bottom-up reconciliation" in Anbar province, and said, "The same thing is now beginning to happen in Diyala province." But on Monday night, gunmen in police uniforms massacred the residents of a Shiite village in Diyala, leaving 29 men, women and children dead. Gen. Peter Pace, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the Associated Press yesterday that Iraq is undergoing a "sea change" for the better. This is wishful thinking that is even more dangerous than the sort that imagines a withdrawal can be accomplished without negative consequences.
Iraq is destined for a crackup. Continuing the current American mission there (we'll leave it to others to try to define what that mission is) can delay the crackup but can't avert it. It may make the explosion worse when it finally comes. It will, in the meantime, continue to sap American authority, American strength, American dollars and of course American lives.
Iraqis are not through killing each other, and, driven by forces let loose by the U.S. invasion, they won't be for a long time to come. Their country has an unhappy future. The U.S. military should stop trying to keep the lid on, because it does no good - but Americans should understand that when the lid comes off, Iraq will be at full boil.