Terrorism's silver lining

The Baltimore Sun

WASHINGTON -- Where there's a terrorist, there's a business opportunity.

If you're new to that concept, no worries. There's still plenty of money to be made in the homeland security industry.

You've heard of improvised explosive devices - those nasty roadside bombs that have killed too many American sons and daughters. Well, here's worse news (or maybe good news for your investment portfolio): IEDs may be coming to America.

And this means that counter-IED technology will be the newest market segment in homeland security. Thrilling, isn't it?

So goes the newest prediction from a Washington-based consultancy group that caters to businesses and governments. Some of its clients include the U.S. House of Representatives, NATO, the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute and the governments of Japan and Sweden, as well as such corporations as Boeing, DuPont, Panasonic and Cisco, just to name a few.

The business of homeland security is nothing new. In fact, some market observers wonder if the boom is already past. Venture capitalists who had hoped to make big gains in the markets created by terrorism began expressing doubts about sustainability of earnings growth at least a year ago.

But then there's always something new around the corner. With each new terrorist innovation comes a new market. One company predicts a robust business in homeland security, figuring the U.S. market share will reach $115 billion by 2011. Another Washington-based investment firm specializing in security puts the U.S. share of the global homeland security market at $140 billion during the next five years.

The trick is keeping one's eye on, well, everybody, apparently. Figure out what's coming down the road and invest in countermeasures. It is also wise to watch Washington.

Much of what's predicted is common sense. Essentially, whatever causes fear and loathing in the American populace is where you should put your money. Hint: Mexican Border Fence. The border and perimeter protection market is forecast to hit $13.9 billion by 2011.

The beautiful thing about the capitalist-driven marketplace is that needs are met with speed, innovation and entrepreneurship. The ugly thing is that sometimes what drives the market is also what aims to kill us. We loathe terrorists because of their cowardice, brutality, narcissism and utter disregard for civilization. Yet, in trying to thwart them, we become invested in their success.

The sustainability of our investments depends on the sustainability of terror - or at least the fear of terror.

Without a major terrorist attack, markets can expect an infusion of $178 billion by 2015, according to a homeland security contractor. But with a major attack in the United States, Europe or Japan, the global security market could increase to $730 billion.

Maybe this, and not global warming, is how the world ends: terrorism and capitalism colliding in an explosion of irony. Capitalism, the only system that respects the individual, and terrorism, an instrument of pathological individualism, are locked in a circular codependency without a foreseeable cure.

The cynic's question isn't, "Are the terrorists winning?" but rather, "Can we afford to defeat them?"

Kathleen Parker's syndicated column appears Mondays and Fridays in The Sun. Her e-mail is kparker@kparker.com.

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