You've been here before, right? This little midseason crossroads where you hope that whatever transpires the next three months of the baseball season makes you forget everything that transpired the previous three months. It's where you gaze up at the top row of warehouse windows and beg, plead and bargain. I'll dress my kid like an Oriole Bird bobblehead for the next 10 Halloweens if you can just sign a cleanup hitter.
The on-field story lines are yawn material at this point. Almost all of the intrigue surrounding the Orioles over the second half of the season will take place away from the playing field. But what remains to be seen is how much intrigue will actually be generated.
A little more than three weeks has passed since Andy MacPhail took over as Orioles president of baseball operations and nary a critical word has been written about him since. That's because he hasn't done much to criticize. He hasn't done much at all, in fact.
But depending on what exactly you think of the Orioles' roster, the next few weeks could finally reveal what MacPhail's plans are for this team. Long-suffering fans will be looking at every decision between now and the non-waiver trade deadline at the end of the month for hints. Unfortunately, there might not be nearly as many as they would like.
Inside the warehouse and out, not a lot is known about MacPhail's initial impressions of the ballclub or what his priorities might be in returning the team to competitive form. Not only was the recruitment and hiring of MacPhail conducted like a covert military exercise, but everything since also has taken place in the shadows. Even the guys who were sitting at the controls just a month ago have no idea about their job security or how they'll ultimately fit into the team's future. Don't think that some of these guys aren't overcome with a brief sense of relief when the key still unlocks that office door each morning.
Thus far, we can say three things about MacPhail's tenure: He likes the Orioles' young pitchers, he likes Joe Girardi and he dislikes having a backup plan in case Girardi doesn't want to manage in Baltimore, which - gasp! - is exactly what happened. Because MacPhail seems content with interim manager Dave Trembley holding the reins indefinitely, the way MacPhail navigates the trade season could offer the first real glimpse of what he thinks of his new team.
Unless, of course, these waters are just too shallow to navigate.
There's no shortage of players to whom fans wouldn't mind donating some personal frequent-flyer miles to ship out of town. In fact, if a player doesn't look to be a contributor on the roster two years from now, he has little business being on the roster two weeks from now. Which means the Orioles theoretically have trade bait filling their bucket to the brim.
While the Orioles are definitely sellers in this market, is it reasonable to expect there will be takers? And is it fair to think the Orioles could land anyone who might become a contributor?
The years blend together for fans, but the circumstances are noticeably similar. Just think back to last year and how difficult it was to unload Jeff Conine and Javy Lopez. Now imagine what the Orioles should expect to get in return for Melvin Mora and his ridiculous contract or for Steve Trachsel, a player every team passed on just a couple of months ago, or for Corey Patterson, Jay Payton, Kevin Millar or Jay Gibbons.
It's possible the Orioles can part ways with some dead weight, but it's probably not too realistic to think they're going to attract much in return.
One guy the Orioles would love to shop is Miguel Tejada, but his injury last month threw a major wrench into those plans. Even if he comes back sooner than expected, before the non-waiver deadline, scouts have spoiled on him, and no one is going to take a chance until knowing that he's healthy.
The best possible scenario is that Tejada comes back and immediately starts posting numbers. The Orioles can try to pass him through waivers in August - that meaty contract should help - and then deal him off. But the offers for Tejada won't be nearly what they were a year ago.
This is a long way of saying that simply studying the transactions each morning might not reveal as much about MacPhail's long-term intentions as fans might like. You'll more likely have to read between the lines.
There are too many dispensable players on the Orioles' roster for MacPhail and his staff to not at least attempt to be active in the next 1 1/2 months. All the trade proposals won't go through, but we'll learn a lot by noting which positions they chase, whom they offer and the experience level of the players MacPhail covets.
Hopefully, MacPhail already has accepted the one truth previous leadership failed to acknowledge - that this team is not just a couple of signings away from competing. And it would be wise to temper expectations the next couple of months and realize the Orioles are probably not just a few trades away either.
rick.maese@baltsun.com