Buehrle smiling while O's grimace

The Baltimore Sun

It was my intention to ride into the non-mathematical midpoint of the 2007 baseball season on a tiny wave of good feeling, based on the more upbeat performance of the Orioles and the organizational changes they've made over the past month.

Then I saw the contract extension the Chicago White Sox gave to Mark Buehrle and it put me right back into a fatalistic funk.

No disrespect to Buehrle, who is a terrific left-handed pitcher in a sport that puts a premium on that particular demographic. The White Sox were happy to give him a four-year deal worth $56 million, and he was happy to take it, albeit with fancy contract language thrown in to discourage the team from trading him.

I'm not going to debate whether he is a $14 million player. In the greater scheme of things, nobody is. In the out-of-proportion world of professional sports, it's starting to seem like everybody is. The guy averaged nearly 16 wins the previous six seasons, so I'm more than willing to tip my cap to him and congratulate him for winning life's lottery.

If Buehrle didn't get that money, Jerry Reinsdorf wasn't going to refund it to season-ticket holders.

What bothers me is not the amount of the contract, but the standard it sets for pending free-agent pitchers of his caliber, particularly with regard to the Orioles and their hopes of becoming a playoff contender in my lifetime.

The Orioles, as you might have noticed, have a very good young left-hander named Erik Bedard who will need his contract extended in the next couple of years, and it's anybody's guess what the price might be if he continues to progress at his current rate.

If you need some kind of yardstick, you might compare his numbers with Buehrle's for the past season and a half. I think you'd take Bedard's statistics, though Buehrle is the same age (28) and is far more established. Everybody got to see how good Bedard can be his last time out, and if you listen to the scouts who pass through town each homestand, that two-hit, 15-strikeout complete game was not a fluke.

Bedard still is 2 1/2 years away from free-agent eligibility, but the Orioles might want to move on him pretty soon if they are to have any hope of keeping him past his walk year.

My recurring sense of fatalism, however, is only peripherally related to Bedard's future in Baltimore. The Orioles probably will make every attempt to keep him, and they might even succeed. It's more about how the maturation of the young pitching staff will run headlong into the club's need to add star-quality position players to have any chance of returning to prominence in the American League East.

Think about it. If the Orioles have to set aside, say, $17 million per year for Bedard starting two years from now, how willing is Peter Angelos going to be to sign a top-dollar run producer this winter or next? I can see him letting new club president Andy MacPhail sign a marquee outfielder to bat behind Miguel Tejada, but I can also see him wondering just what the payroll might be with Bedard on board long term and a couple of other young pitchers lurking in the economic shadows.

Daniel Cabrera also will be eligible for free agency after the 2009 season, though it's anybody's guess whether he'll be a $10 million pitcher by that time or a midsummer salary dump. If all goes according to plan, that might be just the beginning of a parade of potential free agents with their hands out.

So the Orioles could spend the next few years rebalancing their minor league system to produce more position prospects, only to find themselves strapped for pitching talent right when the whole thing is supposed to come together.

That's why it's important to heed the lesson of Mike Mussina and get Bedard under a long-term contract (or, failing that, on his way to Texas) by next summer at the latest. And that's why MacPhail should move aggressively this winter to shore up the offense while he's still the exciting new guy in the front office.

The recent change in organizational attitude - at both the field and front-office levels - has perked up the fans. You can hear it in the stands and on the talk shows. MacPhail needs to keep that flicker of hope alive by making the short-term decisions that will give the team a chance to be competitive next year without losing sight of the big picture.

It's a balancing act that will test his considerable administrative talents, and Buehrle's new contract certainly didn't make it any easier.

peter.schmuck@baltsun.com

Listen to Peter Schmuck on WBAL (1090 AM) at noon on Saturdays and Sundays.

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