Iraq, down under

The Baltimore Sun

There was a time when pundits liked to argue that only lunatic conspiracy theorists could imagine that the war in Iraq was about the oil. Yesterday, Australia's defense minister said it was about the oil. And he said it was because of that oil that Australian soldiers would have to stay on in Iraq and keep fighting.

"Energy security is extremely important to all nations throughout the world, and of course, in protecting and securing Australia's interests," said Brendan Nelson. "The Middle East itself, not only Iraq but the entire region, is an important supplier of energy oil, in particular, to the rest of the world."

Prime Minister John Howard, who is President Bush's most faithful ally, rejected Mr. Nelson's assertion. But maybe he hasn't been paying close enough attention. Here's what Mr. Bush said at an Independence Day address in nearby Martinsburg, W.Va.:

"If we were to quit Iraq before the job is done, the terrorists we are fighting would not declare victory and lay down their arms - they would follow us here, home. If we were to allow them to gain control of Iraq, they would have control of a nation with massive oil reserves - which they could use to fund new attacks and exhort economic blackmail on those who didn't kowtow to their wishes."

So maybe it wasn't about the oil then. But now that the war has been thoroughly botched - now the war is about the oil.

That at least makes some sense, because the war is clearly not about fighting the terrorists there so we don't have to fight them here. Britain's recent experience is evidence of that. There are plenty of would-be terrorists as it is, more than enough to keep busy in Iraq and the rest of the world at the same time - and in fact the war in Iraq simply inspires even more terrorists, as, again, the recent British incident shows.

But the oil argument has some substance to it; however, here's what both Mr. Nelson and Mr. Bush are overlooking: There are terrorists in Iraq, and there are foreign troops from Western powers, but the primary conflict there is not between those two groups. It is among Iraqis themselves.

And however that conflict plays out, terrorists are hardly likely to gain control of Iraq's oil reserves. In truth, the most potent threat to Middle Eastern "energy security" lies in the anger and lawlessness kicked up by the president's determination to keep American troops fighting in perpetuity against an ever-shifting variety of foes.

It might be better to figure out how to live without the oil than to keep shedding blood trying to defend it.

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