Poll shows Cardin lead over Steele

The Baltimore Sun

With a down-to-the-wire primary behind him, Democratic Rep. Benjamin L. Cardin enters the U.S. Senate general election contest with an 11-point lead over his rival, Republican Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele, according to a new poll for The Sun.

Six weeks before the November vote, Cardin leads Steele, 51 percent to 40 percent, according to the statewide survey of 815 likely voters. But with Republican and Democratic parties expected to flood the state with money and appearances in the weeks to come, the race remains volatile.

"This is not the kind of lead that's insurmountable at this stage," said James G. Gimpel, a professor of government at the University of Maryland, College Park. "Cardin has a lead to protect, and Steele has to be the more aggressive campaigner, probably take a few more risks."

Cardin's support stretches across the state, according to the poll, and he dominates in Maryland's most solidly African-American communities: Baltimore and Prince George's County.

Cardin, who beat former NAACP chief Kweisi Mfume in the Democratic primary by fewer than 20,000 votes, holds a nearly 3-to-1 advantage over Steele among black voters, a traditionally Democratic constituency into which the lieutenant governor has attempted to make inroads.

Steele, the highest-ranking statewide black official, leads Cardin, who is white, in rural Maryland, a typically Republican stronghold, and with voters younger than 50. Self-described conservatives strongly favor Steele, a former chairman of the Maryland Republican Party.

Cardin has maintained an 11-point lead over Steele through three Sun polls taken during the past year. The number of undecided voters, meanwhile, has dwindled, from about one in four last November to fewer than one in 10 in the current poll.

The undecided could include supporters of Kevin Zeese, who is backed by the Green, Libertarian and Populist parties.

The telephone survey conducted Sept. 15 to Sept. 18 has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

Keith Haller of Potomac Inc. of Bethesda, the independent firm that conducted the survey for The Sun, said Cardin appears to have emerged from a tight primary race with Mfume "no worse for wear."

Cardin benefits from the 2-to-1 registration advantage Democrats enjoy over Republicans in Maryland and the unpopularity of President Bush and the Republican Party in the state, Haller said.

Thirty-five percent of those surveyed said they had more confidence in Republicans to handle the most important problems facing the state. Forty-nine percent believed the Democrats would do a better job.

Only 34 percent, meanwhile, approve of Bush's performance as president. Fifty-nine percent disapprove.

"Maryland remains one of his worst states," Haller said of the president. "He's kind of like raw meat for the Democratic wolf pack."

For that reason, Gimpel said he expects Steele to talk more like a Democrat and play down his ties to the Republican Party.

Elected with Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. in 2002, Steele, 47, has never won office on his own. During the Senate campaign, he has received fundraising help from Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney and a host of White House loyalists - support that Democrats regularly mention.

But Steele has a panache that Cardin lacks and is working to craft a likable, moderate persona in a series of quirky television ads that do not mention his party affiliation.

The poll shows Steele gaining unusually high support for a Republican among African-American voters. While Cardin is leading with 66 percent of the black vote, 24 percent now favor Steele.

"It's an unprecedented number for a Republican running statewide against a prominent Democrat," Haller said.

Temple Hills resident Robert W. Chandler, 53, is a registered Democrat who said he plans to vote for Ehrlich in the gubernatorial contest and Cardin for Senate. Chandler, who is black, said he believes Ehrlich has done a good job and cheered his pro-slots position. But Steele, he said, has yet to articulate where he stands on issues.

Steele "hasn't really come out of the shadow of the governor, and he said he wants to be a new type of politician, and I see him trying to distance himself from standard politicians, but I don't see much substance there," said Chandler, an information systems manager.

He added: "He doesn't get any points for being black."

But Elaine Rogers, also a black Democrat, says her support for Steele is based partly on her appreciation of the Ehrlich administration. A retired mental health research technician, she has also been impressed by Steele's campaign advertisements - which emphasize the lieutenant governor's engaging personality.

"I saw him on TV, ... and his message was very eye-opening," said Rogers, 65, of Clinton. "He came across as being a sincere person, and his programs consist of things that I thought would help my community."

Turnout among African-American voters could significantly affect the race, said Haller, the pollster. If the overwhelmingly Democratic bloc votes in smaller numbers in November, Steele gains an advantage, he said.

"Just the fallout in turnout could equalize the result on its own," Haller said.

A 20-year veteran of Congress and former speaker of the Maryland House of Delegates, Cardin, 62, leads among self-identified moderates, 58 percent to Steele's 34 percent. He is ahead among unaffiliated voters, 51 percent to 34 percent.

Silver Spring resident James Henley, 45, is a Libertarian who said he planned to vote for Cardin to balance power in Washington. It's nothing personal against Steele, he said.

"At the national level, the Republican Party has become such a repugnant institution that I would like to take as much of the control of Congress away from the Republicans as possible," said Henley, who works in finance for a telecommunications company.

Cardin holds wide leads in jurisdictions where Democrats typically perform well. He leads Steele by about 30 percentage points in Montgomery, Howard and Prince George's counties, and by more than 50 percentage points in Baltimore City.

Steele has a 5-point advantage in Anne Arundel County, which includes a portion of Cardin's congressional district. The nominees are deadlocked in Baltimore County, segments of which Cardin also represents.

Haller said Steele, a Largo resident, should focus on voters in his own backyard - Prince George's County - because he is polling better there against Cardin than in Baltimore. High turnout in more conservative rural Maryland - the western part of the state and the Eastern Shore - could help Steele, too.

Haller said the lieutenant governor needs to capitalize on black voter discontent with the Democratic Party. Democrats nominated for statewide office this year include four white men and Del. Anthony G. Brown of Prince George's, the candidate for lieutenant governor, who is black.

"If [Steele] can lower the vote that Cardin is likely to get out of a place like Prince George's, then again, it gives him another insurance policy," Haller said.

Cardin, meanwhile, should continue to hammer Steele for his ties to the White House and the national GOP, Haller said. But both men could rise or fall with the likely influx of party cash and advertisements.

"There's too much megatonnage that's going to be dropped on Maryland," Haller said. "You've got national political influences that are ultimately going to come in and direct things here. There's a lot of unpredictability, there's a lot of volatility."

jennifer.skalka@baltsun.com matthew.brown@baltsun.com

For past poll stories, go to baltimoresun.com/sunpoll

How the poll was conducted

The Sun poll was conducted by Potomac Inc., an independent survey research firm based in Bethesda that has been polling for the newspaper since 1998 and has been surveying Maryland voters on issues and politics for more than 20 years.

The survey is based on 815 telephone interviews conducted statewide from Sept. 15 to Sept. 18 among a random sampling of likely-to-vote Maryland registered voters. For its sample, Potomac used a current statewide list of registered voters matched with telephone numbers.

Multiple attempts were made to contact each qualified respondent. Throughout the interviewing process, quotas were established for geography, political party, gender and race to more accurately reflect the statewide electorate.

According to statistical standards, the statewide sample produces a margin of error of no more than 3.5 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level. This means that 95 times out of 100, the "true figure" for the survey result would fall within 3.5 percentage points of the answer obtained if every likely voter in the state had been interviewed.

For smaller subgroups, the potential sampling error is higher. Margin of sampling error is only one of many potential sources of error in this or any other public opinion survey.

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