Maryland's budget woes have grown so pervasive that an overwhelming majority of voters believe that Gov.-elect Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. won't be able to balance the state's books without raising taxes, a new poll for The Sun released today shows.
Nearly six in 10 registered voters say Ehrlich will be forced to violate his campaign pledge during his four-year term. And before granting him another signature election-year initiative - installing slot machines at state racetracks - they say they want to decide the issue for themselves at the ballot box.
Marylanders aren't wholly opposed to paying more out of their pockets to solve the budget crunch. More than two-thirds of poll respondents say state residents who earn more than $100,000 yearly should temporarily contribute higher income taxes to ease the crisis and fund services provided by the state.
The Maryland Poll, conducted for the newspaper by Potomac Survey Research, illustrates the vexing choices faced by a new General Assembly that convenes today for its annual legislative session.
Budget issues have become the second-leading concern of state residents, behind the quality of public schools. Lawmakers will spend the next 90 days wrangling over how to fill a projected $1.2 billion gap in a $22 billion state budget.
A year ago, the shortfall barely intruded on the consciousness of state residents: Three percent of voters said it was the most pressing issue in the state.
Today, however, more than one in six voters say it's the top concern that political leaders should address during the next three months.
The telephone survey of 1,200 randomly selected likely voters was conducted Dec. 30 through Saturday, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
Henry Fawell, a spokesman for Ehrlich, ruled out tax increases again yesterday, trying to assuage skeptics.
But the governor-elect's promises - which include leaving aid to counties untouched and avoiding employee layoffs - could soon change, predicted Del. Howard P. Rawlings of Baltimore, chairman of the House Appropriations Committee.
"I think reality will hit him and he will make certain adjustments," Rawlings said. "I don't see how he is going to address some of these fiscal problems without additional adjustments to our tax structure."
The General Assembly's budget debate is expected to center on slot machines, with Ehrlich asserting that 10,000 terminals at four racetracks could generate $800 million yearly for the state.
The governor-elect says his election victory over Democrat Kathleen Kennedy Townsend showed that residents want slots, but poll results indicate anything but unanimity, said Keith Haller, president of Potomac.
'Not a strong mandate'
Forty-eight percent of residents say they favor slots at tracks, with 39 percent in opposition. But two of three Marylanders say voters should decide through a referendum whether to expand gambling - a position at odds with the governor-elect and legislative leaders.
"There is not a strong mandate for slots, nor is it being viewed as a panacea for all the state's ills," Haller said. "Public support is there, but it's not strong and it's not locked down.
"Most people see it as a big issue and would prefer to have it addressed in an election context where they would have a final say. ... "
Ehrlich and top legislative leaders say that slots can't be delayed until a 2004 referendum. The money is needed, they say, sooner than that.
"This is a no-brainer," said Ehrlich in an interview yesterday. "There's a lot of dollars here. Our plan is to fund Thornton [mandated education increases] completely. We think it can be done, given the stakes."
Last year, legislators adopted the recommendations of a school funding task force known as the Thornton Commission, and plan to spend $147 million more on education this year.
Voters are split on whether the state can afford the commitment. More than half say the plan should be implemented at all costs - either through spending cuts or tax increases - yet 34 percent believe that it should be delayed until fiscal conditions improve.
While tying slots to education has much support, ambivalence about gambling is widespread. Joy Stow, a Severna Park homemaker, is among the 66 percent of voters who say that if slots are approved, gambling will spread beyond tracks. Stow fears for the future of Baltimore's family-oriented Inner Harbor. "I can see it being like New Orleans, where they have a casino in the French Quarter," she said. "I could see something like that going up, and I just don't think it is wise."
Needed diversion
But James Depfer, 60, of Severn said horse tracks need the boost that an added diversion would deliver.
"I go to the racetracks twice a year, and you can see they have gone downhill without slots," Depfer said. "There used to be a lot of people there, but now you go during the week and there is hardly any people. ... "
The legislature, Depfer said, should act immediately. "A billion dollars is a lot of money to be in debt," he said.
Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller concurs. "The budget situation dictates action now. The economy dictates action now. The slots on our border in Delaware, West Virginia and soon to be Pennsylvania dictates action now," he said. "So I say vote it up or vote it down now."
Though Maryland's political landscape has changed drastically with the election of the first GOP governor since Spiro T. Agnew in 1966 - swept into office on the strength of Baltimore-area suburbs and exurbs - the poll found that the state remains liberal on issues such as gun control, the environment and health insurance.
Asked how to prevent crimes such as the recent Washington-area sniper attacks, 43 percent of poll respondents said stronger gun-control laws would work better, while 33 percent said expanding the death penalty is the better choice.
Republicans supported greater use of the death penalty by a 47-25 percent margin, while Democrats backed tighter gun laws 52-27 percent.
Environmental views
Marylanders continue to be strong advocates of environmental protection. Nearly two-thirds of voters say natural resources should be protected even at the expense of jobs, a finding similar to that of previous surveys. A majority of Republicans agree.
Also, more than half of voters say taxpayer dollars should be used to provide health insurance to all state residents without insurance. Support for an insurance safety net rebounded from a year ago.
Marylanders' desire for public spending on a range of issues offers limited guidance to lawmakers seeking to shrink the state budget.
Three-quarters of voters say the state should not cut higher education funds, and an almost identical number say environmental programs should not be touched.
Voters are clear, however, about where they think additional money should and shouldn't come from.
A majority of them - 56 percent - say they oppose raising the gasoline tax 10 cents a gallon to pay for road projects. But voters in populous and traffic-choked Montgomery County support a gas-tax increase 56 percent to 41 percent.
A temporary income-tax increase for people earning more than $100,000 yearly - a solution used by lawmakers 10 years ago facing a similar crisis - received broad support.
Sixty-eight percent of respondents said they favored a temporary increase. Republicans and Ehrlich voters support the idea, though Ehrlich aide Fawell rules it out.
Legislative analysts estimate that increasing the top income tax rate from 4.75 percent to 6 percent for incomes over $100,000 (or $150,000 for joint returns) would generate $200 million yearly.
Donna Winslow, a Woodlawn resident who voted for Townsend, supports such an increase.
"I don't have any tax breaks, tax cuts. I have nothing," said Winslow, 57. "I am going to be paying probably more taxes than the person who makes $100,000 because they can find the loopholes. I can't."
Winslow is backed by leading lawmakers such as Sen. Ulysses Currie of Prince George's County, the new chairman of the Budget and Taxation Committee, who said the increase should be debated.
"I think it is something we definitely should do," Currie said. "We are going to tax people with slots, and by and large they are not people earning more than $100,000."
Death penalty
Another issue confronting lawmakers - whether to continue a moratorium on the death penalty - appears immensely divisive. A comprehensive study from the University of Maryland, College Park released yesterday shows that prosecutors seek the death penalty in cases involving white victims more often than those with black victims, findings sure to be debated in coming weeks.
Equal numbers of voters support and oppose a moratorium, the poll shows. "It does remain one of the most vexing issues in Maryland," Haller said, "and it has the potential to become hugely polarizing."
The pace of development in Maryland is rising as a concern: 49 percent of voters say the state is growing too fast, up from 41 percent two years ago. All regions share the concern.
As always, the Maryland Poll indicates that voters' top concerns vary sharply depending on where they live. While the state's fiscal health is the top concern in Baltimore County (mentioned by 20 percent of voters), crime and drugs ranks highest in Baltimore City (31 percent say it's their top issue).
Statewide, crime has declined as a worry, with 69 percent of state voters saying it's not much of a problem in their neighborhoods. But among African-Americans, 52 percent say it's a serious concern.
In Montgomery County, traffic is the top issue, while education is the ranking concern in Prince George's.
Sun staff writer Ivan Penn contributed to this article.