The nation's great used-car sale - which has provided consumers the lowest prices in years - is drawing to a close, according to industry officials.
"I said it a year ago and I'll say it again: There has never been a better time to buy a used car," said Raymond C. Nichols, chairman and chief executive of Bel Air-based BSCAmerica Inc., which operates car auctions in Maryland and other parts of the country. "But those days are coming to an end."
He said that prices on popular-model used cars, which have been falling 3 percent to 5 percent annually in recent years, and even more on less-popular models, "are expected to flatten out in 2003."
"The great bargains are about to become a thing of the past," said George E. Hoffer, an economics professor at Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond, and an automotive analyst.
Hoffer and Nichols point to the same factor in supporting their projection of higher prices in the year ahead: a meaningful decline in the number of used cars on the market.
Nichols said that the auto rental companies cut back sharply on the number of cars in their fleets in response to the sudden drop-off in travel as a result of the terrorists attacks Sept. 11 last year. That means there will be fewer rental cars showing up on used-car lots this summer.
Hoffer said a decline in the popularity of leasing in recent years also is cutting into the number of used cars that will be available in the years ahead.
David E. Cole, president of the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Mich., said the anticipated dip in new-car sales in 2003 will also have an impact on used-car prices.
"Zero-percent financing resulted in a lot of trade-ins in recent years," he said. "The industry expects the number of trade-ins to decline in the year ahead."
According to Nichols, the cost of 3-year-old used cars has been declining 3 percent to 5 percent annually since 1998.
He said prices of some of the less-popular models, including mid-size domestic sedans in unpopular colors and lacking popular options, have been falling 7 percent to 8 percent a year.
While this has been a boon to used-car buyers, it has increased the cost of buying a new car.
"A lot of consumers have been getting less money for their trade-ins than they expected," said Nichols.
He said that in recent years, cars have been depreciating at a faster rate than at any time in the past three decades.
Nichols' advice to buyers looking for maximum trade-in value on their cars: Buy what is popular. "Pick the most popular color. Equip it will with all the options that Americans like on their cars - all the bells and whistles."
Nichols said the hottest segment of the used-car market today is vehicles selling for $10,000 or less.
He said there is no stigma attached to owning a 2- or 3-year-old car.
"Body styles change so little that, unless you're a real car person, it is difficult to tell that a car is a couple of years old," Nichols said.
Although used-car prices are expected to rise next year, Hoffer said, the consumer will still have some negotiating room. "Used cars are like a tomato," he said. "The dealer has to move them fast. They have lots of money tied up in them. They are difficult to store, and a car sitting on a lot ages rapidly."