NAIROBI, Kenya - As Kenyans head to the polls today to elect their third president in 40 years, ending the long rule of one of Africa's strongmen, about the only thing that can stop opposition leader Mwai Kibaki, 71, from winning is electoral fraud.
And in Kenya's corrupt political system, that is all too possible, analysts say.
Western diplomats and election observers have reported wide-scale buying of votes and other transgressions in recent days. Yesterday, the opposition alleged that pro-government police killed two of its supporters. Police said the men died while being chased because their vehicle had no registration papers.
The anti-corruption group Transparency International sponsored a full-page ad in Kenya's Daily Nation newspaper, urging citizens to look out for people voting more than once. It also urged them to report suspicious government officials near polling stations, missing ballot papers and people offering bribes or promises of jobs.
Unlike previous elections, Kibaki and his chief opponent, Uhuru Kenyatta, 42, son of Kenya's independence leader, Jomo Kenyatta, have been campaigning until the last minute, greeting boisterous crowds.
"We believe we shall win," Kibaki told several hundred supporters yesterday outside his house in Muthaiga, an affluent Nairobi neighborhood.
Recent polls give Kibaki a strong lead, and analysts expect him to win.
Kenyatta, who's pledging "a fresh start," is the hand-picked successor to Daniel T. arap Moi, who is constitutionally barred from seeking re-election after 24 years in power. But Kenyatta, a political novice, has been hurt by his close association to Moi, whose rule was marked by graft, weak rule of law and economic decline.
Many seeking change are backing Kibaki and his National Rainbow Coalition to revive Kenya, once described as Africa's brightest star. Today, Kenyans earn about $350 a year - the same as in 1963, when Kenya won independence from Great Britain. The economy is growing at an annual rate of 1.8 percent, far less than many other African countries.
In 1991, Kibaki formed the opposition Democratic Party. He lost to Moi in the 1992 and 1997 presidential elections.
If Kibaki wins this time, he has promised to tackle corruption and rebuild Kenya's crumbling roads and poor telephone lines. The economy, he says, will be a key focus.