WASHINGTON - Saddam Hussein has always been a unique political creature - a combination of Don Corleone and Donald Duck.
He's always been capable of the most shrewd, but brutal, survival tactics, a la the Godfather, and the most cartoonish miscalculations, a la the Donald. At the moment, we are witnessing his Donald Duck side.
Imagine if instead of stiffing the United Nations and the United States by issuing a report that he had no weapons of mass destruction, Mr. Hussein had simply said: "Oh my gosh, we just found eight Scud missiles and four barrels of chemicals hidden under some blankets in the basement. I had no idea they were there! Please, take them away. I've already executed the general who was hiding them."
That would have created a huge problem for the Bush war team. Instead, by playing totally (and unbelievably) innocent, Mr. Hussein is helping the United States make the case for war. But does that mean war is inevitable? Not yet. I believe Mr. Hussein will have one more exit opportunity, and the Bush team needs to be ready for it. I call it: "the Primakov moment."
Yevgeny Primakov was the Russian envoy and KGB veteran who made several trips to Baghdad in 1990-91 to try to talk Mr. Hussein out of Kuwait to avoid a war - 11th-hour diplomacy that drove the first Bush administration crazy. Mr. Hussein probably could have kept half of Kuwait had he played along with Mr. Primakov. But he wouldn't compromise and, in the end, got smashed.
My guess is that we will see this play again. Before Gulf War II is launched, there will be a Russian-French or Arab delegation that flies to Baghdad and tries to persuade Mr. Hussein to spare his family, and everyone else, from a war - either by disclosing his weapons or by going into exile under Arab or European protection.
Why? Because, unlike Gulf War I, too many nations don't want Gulf War II to happen.
Think about it. Egypt got two-thirds of its debts to the West forgiven for participating in Gulf War I. But today Egypt is terrified about a popular backlash against a Gulf War II, and Cairo is refusing to participate. Syria reportedly got paid $1 billion from Saudi Arabia for joining Gulf War I, but the regime in Damascus has no interest in Gulf War II, because it could be the next target. Turkey got $3 billion for its help in Gulf War I, but it will only get a headache from Gulf War II - which will choke its critical trade with Iraq and possibly bring a huge influx of Kurdish refugees across the Iraq-Turkey border.
Iran enjoyed watching Mr. Hussein get shellacked in Gulf War I, but the last thing its hard-liners want now is Mr. Hussein toppled and a pro-U.S. Iraqi democracy next door. Saudi Arabia had to fight Gulf War I to survive. But Saudi public opinion today is strongly against this war. Ditto the Russians and Europeans, who are not keen on Iraq becoming part of Pax Americana, with all the economic benefits that could entail.
And then there are the Iraqi Kurds, who have established their own quasi-independent state in northern Iraq, with their own oil revenues. They are not at all keen on having some new "democratic" regime in Baghdad emerge that tries to reassert control over them.
Finally, the Sunni Muslim-dominated Arab world knows that there is not a single credible Sunni Muslim among the whole U.S.-funded Iraqi opposition front. They are virtually all Iraqi Shiites and Kurds. The Arab Sunnis are worried that if Iraq becomes a democracy, Iraq's Shiite majority - which has always been under the thumb of Iraq's Sunni minority - will take over and energize Shiites in Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria and Bahrain to start challenging Sunni domination.
The United States needs to be both cool and prepared for anything. As we approach the climax of this story, an Arab or European delegation could show up in Baghdad and forge a deal for Mr. Hussein to back down or go into exile.
The Don Corleone side of Mr. Hussein just might say yes. Or, once again, the Donald Duck in him could miscalculate - in which case, it will be his last cartoon.
Thomas L. Friedman is a columnist for The New York Times. His column appears Tuesdays and Thursdays in The Sun.