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Home construction and manufacturing advance

THE BALTIMORE SUN

WASHINGTON - Home construction rose in November; manufacturing pulled out of a three-month slide; and inflation was tame as low borrowing costs and discounts kept the U.S. recovery going.

There's no evidence of a "double dip" back into a recession, Jeffrey Immelt, chairman and chief executive officer of General Electric Co., said in a conference call with analysts to discuss the company's earnings outlook.

"If the consumer pulled back, that would [affect] everyone. We don't see that in our data," Immelt said.

Builders broke ground on new homes at an annual pace of 1.697 million units, up 2.4 percent from October, the Commerce Department said.

A 0.1 percent increase in November's Consumer Price Index, the most widely followed gauge of U.S. inflation, followed a 0.3 percent rise. Prices were 2.2 percent higher than they were in November 2001.

Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates, close to three-decade lows, are buoying home sales. Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the economy, is holding up as low prices lure shoppers.

Best Buy Co. Inc. said yesterday that its third-quarter profit rose as it offered discounts on DVDs, CDs and electronics.

Such demand was enough to boost industrial production by 0.1 percent last month.

Production picked up at makers of automobiles, electronics, appliances and other consumer goods. For the economic recovery to gain strength, companies need to boost spending on equipment, Federal Reserve officials have said.

The Fed's manufacturing report showed that's not happening. Business equipment production fell 0.4 percent in November after declining 0.7 percent in October and 1.1 percent in September.

"This was a business recession, it wasn't a consumer recession, so that requires companies to be able to build stronger profit margins and we'll need companies to boost capital spending and hiring," said John Ryding, chief economist at Bear Stearns & Co., which has underwritten about $9 billion in corporate bond sales this year.

Production at the nation's factories, mines and utilities had last increased in July. Last month, manufacturing rose 0.1 percent, while mining output increased 1.3 percent. Utility production was unchanged, the Fed said. The November plant-use rate was 75.6 percent, up from 75.5 percent a month earlier, the Fed's figures show.

To maintain profit margins, companies are having to boost productivity because it's difficult to raise prices.

The November rise in consumer prices was the smallest since July, Labor Department figures showed.

So far this year, the CPI is rising at a 2.6 percent annual pace, compared with a 1.8 percent pace in the corresponding period in 2001.

The core rate, which excludes food and energy, is increasing at a 2.1 percent clip, compared with a 2.9 percent rate through November 2001.

The Commerce Department said construction of single-family houses and apartment buildings and other multifamily homes increased last month. The pace of construction starts is close to the record 1.808 million rate reached in September.

Some 1.576 million homes have been started so far this year compared with 1.498 million in the first 11 months of 2001.

The rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage has averaged 6.56 percent so far this year, the lowest since Freddie Mac, the No. 2 buyer of U.S. mortgages, began keeping records in 1971.

Rates have fallen as Fed policy makers reduced their benchmark interest rate 12 times since the start of last year.

Last month's starts of single-family homes rose 0.9 percent to 1.390 million rate from October's 1.378 million pace.

Construction of apartments and other multifamily homes increased 10 percent to a 307,000 annual rate.

By region, starts rose 10.1 percent in the South and 10.9 percent in the Midwest. Construction fell 11.9 percent in the West and 5.6 percent in the Northeast.

Building permits last month, a gauge of future construction, fell 2.7 percent to a 1.725 million annual rate.

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