A week after thanking the Houston Texans for keeping them in the playoff hunt, the Ravens can't afford to give them any gifts today.
With an outside shot at the AFC North title, the Ravens (6-7) understand there's little margin for error left in the season and no room for turnovers against the expansion Texans (4-9) at Reliant Stadium.
Watching last week's game film reinforced the power of mistakes. The Ravens turned the ball over five times in a loss to New Orleans; Houston scored three touchdowns off turnovers in an upset win over Pittsburgh.
"Turnovers are going to be key," Ravens coach Brian Billick said. "That's the way the Texans have won. They know that. They work hard for them. And they know without them, it's going to be uphill. It's pivotal."
A Ravens loss would seriously jeopardize their already slim playoff chances.
The Ravens are 1 1/2 games behind the AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5-1) with three games left in the regular season. If the Steelers beat the Carolina Panthers and the Ravens lose, the Ravens are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.
That's why the mind-set has to be winning the rest of their games.
"We either win or we're out," said tight end Todd Heap, the Ravens' leading receiver. "If you're not focused this week, you probably don't deserve to be out on the field. I think it's going to be a test for our team to see what we've learned throughout the year and if we can respond from last week."
Last week's disaster magnified a season-long problem.
The Ravens have turned the ball over 27 times, which opponents have converted into 81 points. In all but three games - the Panthers and the Cincinnati Bengals twice - has a team failed to score points off a Ravens turnover.
The mistakes have been piling up recently. Turnovers have ended seven of the Ravens' past 30 possessions.
"When you turn the ball over, you can't win. Period," Ravens quarterback Jeff Blake said. "We feel like if we go in and protect the ball, we have a good chance of winning the game."
The two high-risk Ravens have been Blake (eight interceptions and six fumbles in seven starts) and running back Jamal Lewis (seven fumbles in 293 touches).
Lewis' problems boil down to technique and properly protecting the ball in traffic. Blake gets himself in trouble when he throws on the run, rushing the pass without having his feet set.
Sloppy ball handling - in addition to careless penalties by veterans Chris McAlister and Peter Boulware - is a dangerous trend heading into a game against the Texans. In its past five games, Houston has forced three fumbles and made seven interceptions.
"Fumbles become just a personal attitude that you're not going to let that happen," Billick said. "But interceptions are not happenstance. [Houston] does an excellent job of putting people in situations to trap you. It looks like one thing, you throw back the other way and, all of a sudden, there is a guy sitting underneath the ball. So, you have to be very aware of what your vulnerabilities are in that regard."
Capitalizing on miscues has been the winning formula for the Texans, who actually have a worse offense than the Ravens' 29th-ranked attack. Houston, last in the NFL in offense, has not scored an offensive touchdown in nine quarters.
While points have been scarce, the Texans' offense has racked up the sacks. Houston quarterback David Carr has been sacked 68 times, which is five shy of breaking the NFL record of 72 by Philadelphia's Randall Cunningham in 1986.
"There were times when I got up and didn't know where I was," said Carr, the first pick of the 2002 NFL draft.
Despite the abuse, Carr doesn't get easily rattled. He hasn't thrown an interception in 92 straight passes.
Meanwhile, the Ravens are in an interception drought despite leading the AFC in picks. The defense hasn't come up with an interception in 60 consecutive throws.
"[Carr] will make rookie mistakes like all rookies do," said McAlister, the Ravens' starting cornerback. "Hopefully, we'll get a little pressure on him and that will stir it up."
The Ravens are still trying to stir some life into their offense.
The running game has been the team's biggest weapon, but it has been unpredictable. In the past eight games, Lewis has rushed for more than 94 yards four times and has been held under 49 yards four times.
The passing game remains a mess. From the receivers dropping passes to Blake's erratic throws, the Ravens have surpassed 100 yards net passing just once in four weeks.
"You can try too hard," Blake said. "That may be the problem. That's part of having that focus and being in that zone. We have yet to see our offense in a zone, at a point where nobody can stop us. Until we get into that zone, we'll never be the offense that we're capable of being."
The Ravens, though, don't have to be in a zone to win today. They must stay focused.
If they spin out of control with turnovers and penalties, they'll likely take themselves out of the playoff race.
"For us, this is do-or-die," defensive end Adalius Thomas said. "There's no way to sugarcoat it."
Ravens today
Matchup: Ravens (6-7) vs. Houston Texans (4-9)
Site: Reliant Stadium, Houston
Time: 1 p.m.
TV/Radio: Ch. 13/WJFK (1300 AM), WQSR (102.7 FM)
Line: Ravens by 3
SunSpot: For more coverage, visit sunspot.net/ravens