Support for building a high-speed floating train that would whisk passengers between Baltimore and Washington in 20 minutes appears to be eroding as the state confronts its massive budget deficit and the loss of the region's Olympic bid.
The $4.4 billion magnetic levitation train, seen as a way to fuse two urban centers and as the first link in a new Eastern rail system, is being edged off the list of Maryland's transportation priorities, officials say.
"Maglev right now -- with the bumps it's encountered, including the loss of the Olympics and the economy and the continued citizen opposition -- just doesn't have legs," Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller said last week.
It's also unlikely that the project will receive a positive review from the state's 27-member maglev task force, which is preparing a final report to be delivered next month to the governor and lawmakers.
Maryland is competing with Pittsburgh to win $950 million in federal money to build the nation's first maglev line. The Federal Railroad Administration plans to pick a winner by next fall, and the futuristic train could be in service by the end of the decade.
Some wonder whether Maryland should be competing at all.
"A decision needs to be made soon: Do we really want to compete, or just let Pittsburgh have it?" said task force member Edgar Gonzalez of Montgomery County, reflecting the ambivalence of many on the panel.
The group's 22-page draft report, released last week, details the challenges of the project, including raising the necessary state and private money and working with an untested, unproven technology that is available from only one supplier.
According to the report, "The Task Force is concerned about the ability and willingness of Maryland, the District of Columbia and local government to contribute the necessary $500 million." The remaining billions of dollars needed to build the train would have to be raised from private investors.
But maglev is not dead. Proponents point out that the project won't need state approval until 2004 -- when the economy might look rosier and lawmakers could be better informed. They also say traffic congestion will only get worse, and the state cannot build roads forever.
Maglev trains -- which float several inches over an elevated track and travel at up to 280 mph -- are not carrying passengers anywhere in the world, even though the technology has been around for more than a decade.
State planners say that's not necessarily a bad thing. If Maryland builds the project, it will show a commitment to the high-tech industry that could draw like-minded businesses, they say. It could also attract tourists because of its sheer novelty.
And that bodes best for Baltimore. Supporters say the train will boost city housing values by making it easy for commuters to reach Washington. They also envision Washington-based companies opening back offices in Baltimore, where land and office space are cheaper.
"I think it could be a major shot in the arm," said Mayor Martin O'Malley. He said the $4.4 billion price must be viewed in comparison with the money spent on highways, airports and airport security. Trains, he noted, are a lot easier to defend.
"This is far more economical and far more defensible," O'Malley said. "It's exactly the mode of travel that this nation, with the vast expanses we have, should be investing in."
But even a true believer like O'Malley acknowledges that support for the experimental train is not strong, in Annapolis or elsewhere in the state. He suggested taking some lawmakers to Germany, where a demonstration maglev track has been built, to give them a ride.
"It's something totally new, and it's hard to develop support for a new mode of transportation that nobody's ever ridden or even seen," the mayor said. "Given the budget, you can see why everyone's reluctant to go out on a limb."
The state faces a $1.8 billion shortfall over the next two years, and some county officials are worried they won't get enough money to keep up with basic road projects, never mind building a floating train.
Gov.-elect Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. has not taken a firm position on maglev -- supporters hope to get to him before he makes up his mind -- but has said his first job is to build a new highway in Montgomery County.
Ehrlich spokesman Paul Schurick said in a recent interview, "His No. 1 transportation priority has been and will continue to be the construction of the Intercounty Connector in Montgomery County, and any commitments beyond that are premature."
Plans call for the maglev trains to run between Washington's Union Station and Baltimore's Camden Yards, with a stop at the airport. The state estimates about 33,600 people would ride the train daily -- most of them going to and from the airport.
A trip from Baltimore to Washington is projected to cost $24, compared with the $5.50 now charged on the MARC trains. Some worry that the ticket cost might doom the project, but planners say they can't go any lower. The federal government is requiring the train to be self-sufficient. Public transit in the United States generally operates with at least a 50 percent government subsidy.
Maglev will be on its own.
"To me, it just doesn't appear practical that people are going to be able to afford this thing," said state Sen. Edward J. Kasemeyer, a Howard County Democrat and task force member. "It's not a priority issue in any way. When [the Olympics] fell apart, it seems like the whole effort lost some momentum."
Other task force members wonder why maglev technology has never taken off. The only maglev manufacturer in the world is the German company Transrapid. It has built the test track in Germany, but the train has not been tested in daily service. China, however, plans to open a maglev train line in Shanghai next year.
"Europe is accustomed to using rail, and they haven't stepped up to buy this system," said Sen. James E. DeGrange Sr., an Anne Arundel Democrat. "I don't see why we should be the guinea pigs."
Senate President Miller said the project will be an especially tough sell for lawmakers from rural parts of the state, who will see no benefit for them. Miller and others say the state has transportation needs -- such as the new Woodrow Wilson Bridge, the Intercounty Connector, the new Washington Metro Purple Line and the Baltimore Regional Rail Plan -- that must come first.
"The transportation trust fund is certainly not flush," Miller said. "We have more roads to be built. We need an ICC built. That's a billion-dollar road. Maglev is just not on the radar screen of legislators at this point in time."