Although Baltimore County Executive James T. Smith Jr.'s campaign was successful in winning over the white, blue-collar precincts on the east side, an analysis of voting data shows that his entire margin of victory came from the rapidly growing and heavily African-American and Jewish precincts to the west, a drastic reversal of the electoral patterns that dominated county politics for decades.
A Sun analysis combining final election results with census data shows that if all the precincts with above-average concentrations of black voters were subtracted from the county vote totals, Smith's opponent, Republican Douglas B. Riley, would be county executive.
Winning those precincts, which are mostly in Woodlawn, Randallstown and Owings Mills, Smith cruised to a 28,000-vote victory.
The east side's population and influence have been dwindling for years, but no election before this one so thoroughly demonstrated the emergence of the west side as the dominant bloc in county politics. If Smith had lost every vote south and east of Philadelphia Road, he still would have won the election by about 2,000 votes.
The shift did not result in a change in the party that has dominated county politics for decades, but political observers from the east and west say it could have a more subtle effect as power shifts to the more racially and ethnically diverse - and more liberal - Democrats on the west side.
That could mean anything from a shift of county resources to an increased likelihood that a Jewish or black candidate could become county executive.
"The numbers clearly state that the African-American population is growing, and we're talking middle-class growth," said Anthony Fugett, president of the Baltimore County chapter of the NAACP. "They're going to be politically astute and are going to be active in local politics, so I think that says that naturally they're going to be playing more and more of a role in Baltimore County government."
Between the last competitive county executive election in 1994 and the 2000 Census, the county's black population grew by more than 52 percent, while the white population dropped by about 5 percent. African-Americans constitute more than 20 percent of the county's population.
But while the election of Smith and of Kenneth N. Oliver, the county's first African-American councilman, heralds the emergence of black voters as a power bloc in county politics, the limitations of their influence are evident in the loss of Alexander Wright Jr. in the Circuit Court race.
Wright, a sitting judge who is black, did well in the county's African-American precincts but finished last countywide in a four-way race.
Heavy politicking
The campaign generated an unusual amount of politicking as some courthouse insiders, including the wife of a judge, criticized Judge Michael J. Finifter as a political hack appointed by Gov. Parris N. Glendening. Patrick Cavanaugh, a Dundalk attorney, entered the race ostensibly to knock Finifter out.
The data don't point to a single reason for Wright's loss. Wright and Finifter did well, and Cavanaugh poorly, in the Liberty and Reisterstown road corridors, where Wright and Finifter are well-known.
The opposite was true on the east side, where Cavanaugh was better known and where Gov.-elect Robert L. Ehrlich Jr., who also had a strongly anti-Glendening message, won by a crushing margin.
Judge Ruth A. Jakubowski, who was not involved in the politicking and was spared the misfortune of being listed last alphabetically, didn't finish fourth in a single precinct.
Fugett said he's sure that race was a factor for some voters and that Wright's being listed last on the ballot hurt him with others.
"I didn't think there would be any conclusive evidence that it was one thing vs. the other when it came to the general election," he said.
But African-American support was key for Smith, who has lived all his life in the west-side community of Reisterstown. Some of his earliest endorsements came from African-American politicians on the west side, including state Sen. Delores G. Kelley, Del. Adrienne A.W. Jones and Oliver.
Their support helped him win several thousand more votes in the county's African-American precincts than Democratic gubernatorial nominee Kathleen Kennedy Townsend received.
Although Smith played down the central role of African-American voters in his victory - "You could say that of any group. I couldn't have won without women either" - he said the increased voting strength of the west side generally played heavily in his strategy.
Former County Executive Donald P. Hutchinson said that when he was considering a bid for the office 25 years ago, he figured that if he ran strong in all the precincts east of York Road, he could forget about the rest of the county and win the Democratic primary. He did, and served two terms as executive.
When Smith was considering his run two years ago, he figured that if he ran strong in all the precincts west of York Road, he could win the Democratic primary, even against a strong east-side candidate like former state Sen. Thomas L. Bromwell.
"That's where the number of people are, that's where the number of registered voters are," Smith said. "Things have changed."
That change from the old days of east-side dominance means more than geography.
In the early years of county charter government, elections were won and lost in the political clubs of the east side, Hutchinson said, where the patronage system and political favors made fiercely loyal Democrats in places such as Dundalk, Essex and Middle River.
Much of that influence has waned over the years as the political clubs became less important, the patronage system was largely eliminated and the population of those communities dwindled.
The new bloc on the west side is composed of more "traditional, hard-core Democrats," Hutchinson said, referring to black and Jewish residents, and they will provide a tremendous advantage for the party in general elections.
"But in the primary, who knows what any particular community will do?" he said. "They're all up for grabs, but in general you're always going to have to have a Pikesville-Randallstown-Owings Mills strategy, and it's going to be more important than the traditional east side."
Gauging the impact
While Smith and others agreed that voters in the new Democratic bloc are more liberal than those in the old, no clear consensus has emerged on what, if anything, that would mean in county politics.
Smith said he is probably less liberal than Riley on some issues, but such matters of political philosophy have only rarely surfaced in county races.
A notable exception, he said, was the "Taxmussen" campaign against former County Executive Dennis F. Rasmussen in 1990, when a conservative, anti-tax fervor swept Rasmussen out of office.
Although the west-side African-American community votes heavily Democratic, it is not knee-jerk liberal - as evidenced by the support there for Del. Emmett C. Burns Jr., a socially conservative Democrat.
Some west-side political leaders who supported Smith said Riley made a good impression in a few appearances on the west side, and many in the African-American community were willing to give him a chance. However, they said, he was hurt by his endorsement of Oliver's Republican opponent and by not campaigning enough in the area.
Jones, the delegate from Randallstown, said that in hard economic times, being more liberal might be important in the county, but generally such distinctions don't matter.
"Nobody wants higher taxes, no matter if you're a liberal," she said. "Everybody basically wants the same things - good schools, public safety, quality of life, no matter where you live."
City-county relations
A possible result of the emergence of the county's black community is more cooperation with Baltimore City, said Theodore G. Venetoulis, who was county executive from 1974 to 1978.
C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger showed in his eight years as county executive that regionalism is no longer a dirty word for county politicians, and west-side black voters, who often maintain a strong interest in the city's fortunes, could encourage more action, Venetoulis said.
West-side leaders, particularly in the Liberty Road corridor and in Woodlawn, said they hope Smith will bring a greater focus on education, economic development and community conservation to their part of the county.
Fugett said the NAACP will also closely watch Smith's appointments to see if they reflect the diversity of the county.
"The bottom line is, Smith would not be county executive had it not been for the overwhelming vote that came from the west side of the county," said Ella White Campbell, an African-American community activist from Randallstown. "He's quite aware of it because I've already had a lengthy conversation with him about the crisis in education here."
Revitalization
Still, Smith doesn't appear likely to abandon his predecessor's efforts at east-side revitalization. When freshmen Maryland legislators stopped by the county on their tour of the state last week, Smith showed off Middle River projects made possible by the county, the state and the private sector.
But he has also long talked about the strength Baltimore County gains from its increased diversity and the need to make the county's new African-American residents feel welcome.
"That is a high-quality community, well educated, good jobs. They are a real asset," Smith said. "I want to capture their talents for the benefit of the northwest area but also for the benefit of the county generally, and bringing them in and including them as players, getting the benefit of their ideas and initiative and energy, will enable us to promote and improve the quality of life."