WASHINGTON - Contrary to the claims of Pakistani ruler Gen. Pervez Musharraf, the recent parliamentary elections in Pakistan have hardly been a triumphant victory for democracy.
With a fractured mandate and a strong fundamentalist opposition, the new government will be a mere rubber stamp in the hands of General Musharraf. It's an unfortunate recurring theme in Pakistan, which has spent half of its 55-year existence under military dictatorships or corrupt politicians.
The election, instead of being a step toward restoring peace and stability in the region, has done just the opposite by creating an unstable government and catapulting pro-Taliban leaders to prominence. An alliance of six fundamentalist parties with close ties to the former Afghan regime and with fiery pro-Taliban clerics in its top leadership has emerged as the second-largest opposition group and has declared its intention of creating a system based on strict Islamic codes of conduct.
The Mutahida Majlis-e-Amal party, or United Action Forum religious coalition, controls 60 of the 342 seats in the Pakistani parliament and has formed the government in the conservative North West Frontier Province that borders Afghanistan - a region considered by the United States and the Pakistani government to be a safe haven for Taliban and al-Qaida operatives. This is cause for concern since influential leaders of the party have made no secret of their support for the Taliban and their opposition to U.S. operations in both countries.
The pro-Taliban government in recent days has begun to adopt the Sharia, the restrictive Islamic law that drove Afghanistan back to the Dark Ages.
The newly sworn-in chief minister of the province, Akram Khan Durrani, has already set alarm bells ringing with his anti-U.S. rhetoric and his intention to enforce strict Islamic laws, such as banning music on public transportation. Such extreme measures, with the rabid anti-Western sentiment in this lawless tribal area, will seriously hamper U.S.-led efforts to apprehend al-Qaida fugitives.
Interestingly, the divided mandate suits General Musharraf just fine. By dangling the threat of a pro-Taliban regime in Islamabad, the general can continue to extract military and economic aid from the West, in addition to the $230 million in subsidized military sales and the economic bonanza that he has already secured.
Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, who has been exiled by the current junta and conveniently kept out of the elections, has accused General Musharraf of conspiring to bring the pro-Taliban regime to power in the North West Frontier Province. In the corrupt Pakistani political environment, where politicians are often bribed to switch parties, Ms. Bhutto's accusation is not that far-fetched.
With the docile parliament behind him, General Musharraf will be anxious to quench the fires on the Afghan and Indian borders. The danger, however, is that he may use the mandate of the hard-liners as an excuse to dilute his operations against Islamic militants, especially those targeting Kashmir.
The killings of 10 Hindu worshippers and two policemen in Kashmir on Nov. 24 make it clear that Pakistan has done little to stem the flow of terrorists into India. With a hawkish party in opposition and pro-Taliban governments in two regional assemblies, this task will prove even more difficult.
The Bush administration must ensure that pressure is kept up on General Musharraf to rein in Islamic militants operating out of Pakistan. This is the only way to bring peace and stability to the region and avoid a deadly clash between Pakistan and India, its nuclear rival.
As U.S. policymakers shift their focus from Afghanistan to Iraq and interest in Pakistan declines, President Bush would do well to replace more of the military aid with incentives for real democratic reform.
George Bruno was ambassador to Belize during the Clinton administration. He has traveled extensively through India and Pakistan and is the international affairs adviser at the Western Hemisphere Center for Security Cooperation in Fort Benning, Ga.