Home sales in the Baltimore metropolitan area rose slightly last month compared with November of last year, and average sale prices jumped more than 17 percent, an industry group said yesterday.

Experts said sales often slow toward the end of the year as buyers and sellers wait out the holidays. They added that the area is on pace to break last year's home sales record.

Real estate in Baltimore and the five surrounding counties continues to be a strong piece of the local economy, and experts said they see no evidence that it is about to stop, given low mortgage rates and a limited supply of homes for sale.

Baltimore metropolitan housing sales increased 0.43 percent last month, to 2,805 homes, compared with November of last year, according to figures collected by the Metropolitan Regional Information Systems Inc., the Rockville multiple-listing service that tracks sales. The average sales price increased 17.25 percent to $194,830.

Mortgage brokers point to people such as Robin and Rob Meredith, who moved into a new Ellicott City home last month. The couple bought their first house four years ago for $175,000 and sold the townhouse last month for $277,500. They purchased a single-family home for $419,900.

"We were just trying to see where we stood financially," said Robin Meredith, 31, an editor at a consulting firm. "And with rates being what they were, we just decided that now was the time."

They chose to "trade up" on their Ellicott City home for another one a few miles away. They exchanged their 7 percent loan over 30 years for one at 5.88 percent.

"We tried to catch it at the right moment where we could get as much house as we could get," she said. "The timing worked out well for us."

Pending sales in the region, which offer a snapshot of future settlements, were up 4.98 percent from last November.

Housing values in the region continue to rise despite new evidence from the federal government that the national rate is not as strong as it was in past quarters.

The federal government said this month that U.S. housing prices rose 6.16 percent in the third quarter over the comparable period a year ago. Those prices were 0.84 percent higher when compared with the second quarter. Prices in the second quarter were 2.39 percent higher than those in the first quarter. Some economists said that indicates the housing market is weakening.

According to the report by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, housing values in Maryland, Washington, Virginia and West Virginia increased 11.31 percent from a year earlier. In Baltimore, values rose 9.52 percent, according to the federal figures.

A November Gallup Poll found that six in 10 homeowners expect their housing values to increase during the next year. Almost 30 percent said they expected no change and about 6 percent of the respondents said they expect their housing values to decrease.

But some in the industry said they worry about a housing bubble that could burst since they believe some buyers are paying too much for houses.

Some economists, however, insist that the housing industry is not like the stock market, where buying and selling is as easy as picking up the telephone or punching a few buttons on a computer keyboard.

"I don't think we're in a bubble," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac's chief economist. "Market value is what market value is, and given low mortgage rates, there's been pretty strong demand for housing."

Economists and real estate brokers point to the Baltimore area's inventory of homes for sale, which is down 24 percent from a year ago. There were 7,424 homes for sale last month, down 383 from October.

Real estate brokers said they expect the market to cool a bit next year because mortgage rates are expected to rise closer to 7 percent for 30-year fixed rates, the most popular financing tool. However, those rates still will be at three-decade lows. Rates this week averaged 6.04 percent on a 30-year loan, according to Freddie Mac.

Real estate agents said the market is not as strong as it was this summer, when houses in markets like Howard County could fetch a half-dozen offers within hours of going on sale and sellers were getting thousands more than the asking price. Homes stayed on the market an average of 58 days last month - the same amount of time they did a year ago.

"We're only getting two contracts to bid on a house when we were getting nine this past summer," said Jan Hayden, president of the Greater Baltimore Board of Realtors.