MOUNT VERNON, N.Y. -- Peter Angelos got an early Christmas present from his 28 fellow owners. The Lords of Baseball have decided that San Juan, Puerto Rico, is a better place to stage some of the Montreal Expos "home" games than Washington, D.C., next year.
But if Mr. Angelos thinks he has avoided getting competition in his back yard, he may be in for a surprise. Baseball could move the Expos to Washington in time for the 2004 season, and that's not only bad news for him but also for potential Washington fans because of how major-league sports is structured.
It's all about money. Big money from government, cable TV and corporations.
Sometime during 2003, Major League Baseball, which owns the Montreal Expos, will put the team up for sale. The prevailing wisdom is that baseball will accept a bid from a Washington and/or a Northern Virginia group of businessmen backed by government officials, cable TV executives and corporate leaders who will promise baseball a new taxpayer-supported stadium and an open checkbook.
The Expos will then relocate within an hour of Baltimore. But there is no need for Orioles fans to worry. It won't hurt the O's bottom line that much.
Yeah, right.
Mr. Angelos was absolutely correct when he said, "You wouldn't put another team in the same market with Boston or in the same market with St. Louis or in the same market with Minnesota. Why, then, 30 miles from Camden Yards?"
But he should be worried. He knows a successful franchise needs four ingredients: government support, a large cable TV contract, corporate support and, last and least, fan support.
Mr. Angelos has government support; after all, Maryland did build Camden Yards for the Orioles. At the moment, he has corporate support, because companies are buying his luxury boxes and club seating. And he controls his cable TV product on Comcast's regional sports network.
But should the Expos move to Washington, Mr. Angelos' revenue sources will be hurt -- and prospects for the transplanted Washington team won't be that much better than the previous two Washington baseball franchises, which moved in 1960 and 1971.
The Orioles' large market will shrink in a hurry. Officially, its "territory" will consist of just Baltimore and six surrounding counties. The TV market figures to be downsized as well.
As the area's only current baseball franchise, the Orioles get an enormous amount of money from cable TV. The team has lined up some 4.2 million households in Maryland, Virginia, Delaware, Washington and parts of West Virginia and Pennsylvania that can receive Oriole baseball.
If Washington were to get a team, the Orioles would lose a significant number of households in the capital region because Major League Baseball would give the transplanted team cable rights in Washington and parts of Virginia that are now part of the Orioles cable network.
Additionally, the Orioles could not televise games on broadcast Washington TV or market in Washington. That would cost Mr. Angelos and the Orioles millions of dollars annually and depress Washington's potential TV earnings.
Moreover, if Robert Johnson, the founder of Black Entertainment Television, ends up with the Washington franchise, he wants to start his own cable network to bring in much-needed revenues.
Will Comcast allow a Johnson/Washington sports cable network on its systems throughout the mid-Atlantic to compete with the Comcast regional sports network? It's universally known that the federal government-allowed cable monopoly doesn't take kindly to competition.
The Orioles are also battling for corporate dollars with the Ravens, Redskins, Wizards, Capitals, Mystics, D.C. United, University of Maryland and other colleges and a number of minor-league teams. The Orioles and a Washington team would go after the same clients, and there are just so many companies that are interested in sports in the area. This would also cost the Orioles millions of dollars annually and hurt Washington's corporate support.
Without those revenue streams, teams become non-competitive and perennial losers, like baseball Commissioner Bud Selig's Milwaukee Brewers.
The Orioles and Senators didn't work between 1954 and 1971 when the state and local governments weren't partners with teams and cable TV was nothing more than someone running a wire up a mountain. The Orioles and Expos won't work in 2004, either.
Evan Weiner is a commentator on the "Business of Sports" for Westwood One's Metro Networks. He lives in Mount Vernon, N.Y.