CHICAGO - If Miami defeats Virginia Tech today, there will be no debate over the Bowl Championship Series title game pairing for the first time in three years.
The top-ranked Hurricanes would play No. 2 Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl. The only unbeaten Division I-A college football teams would settle the national championship on the field.
But what happens if the Hurricanes lose?
The result could be another BCS meltdown. Soon after the Hurricanes meet the Hokies in Miami, another chapter in the BCS story will unfold in Pasadena, Calif., where UCLA plays host to No. 7 Washington State. The outcome will affect the other BCS pairings, as well as a slew of minor bowls.
If the Bruins win, third-ranked Iowa appears headed to the Rose Bowl against Southern California. That would clear the way for No. 11 Notre Dame to go to the Orange Bowl. But there is increasing speculation the Orange is leaning toward another twice-beaten team, Kansas State.
The No. 6 Wildcats are five rungs ahead of the Fighting Irish in the Associated Press poll, and their fans' history of huge bowl ticket sales has impressed Orange Bowl committee members.
Notre Dame's fallback plan is the Gator Bowl.
If Washington State wins, the Hawkeyes appear to be headed for the Orange, while USC would go to the Sugar and the winner of today's Colorado-Oklahoma Big 12 championship would play the Cougars in the Rose.
Sound confusing? It's nothing compared to the chaos that could ensue if the Hokies were to upset their Big East rival.
Some might assume a loss would knock Miami out of the Fiesta. But the Byzantine BCS formula might absorb the data and still spit out a Hurricanes-Buckeyes showdown in Tempe.
Consider last year's bizarre climax. When Nebraska walked off the field after its last game, a 62-36 loss to Colorado, the Cornhuskers assumed they had no shot at the title game. But a few upsets later they were back in contention. They edged those same Buffaloes by .05 for the second Rose Bowl slot.
If Miami stumbles, the Hurricanes would have to hope they don't drop far in the AP and ESPN/USA Today coaches polls. Were they to remain ahead of once-beaten Georgia, they might have enough margin to squeak into the Fiesta. Of course, the Bulldogs won't have a sniff of the title unless they beat Arkansas in the Southeastern Conference playoff today in Atlanta.
If that happens, tomorrow's BCS announcement figures to be accompanied by plenty of shouting - just as has been the case the past two years. USC, though twice-beaten, would stake its claim to a BCS slot, as would the Hawkeyes, though they appear doomed by a weak schedule.
The Hokies probably don't care whether they create havoc. They only want to beat their Big East rivals and end a disappointing season on a positive note.
Tech's chances for the upset seem to have improved with the return of tailback Kevin Jones, who missed three games (all Tech losses) with a hamstring injury. Jones and starter Lee Suggs have combined to rush for 2,035 yards this year; Jones needs 165 today to join Suggs as the first Hokies to rush for 1,000 in the same season. The two have averaged a combined 169.6 yards a game.
"If Miami has a weakness, it's the run defense," Suggs told reporters. "Greg Jones and Nick Maddox [of Florida State] had big games against them. We can do the same thing.
"We have nothing to lose," Suggs added. "Because everyone is expecting us to lose, anyway."
Andrew Bagnato is a reporter for the Chicago Tribune.