LIKE MILLIONS before him, Rob Vallese three years ago made the big move to a spacious new suburban home. But he did it by going against the last half-century's tide - by moving closer to the city, shortening his work commute and garaging his beloved car.
Mr. Vallese, a Montgomery County pension manager, moved from a Germantown townhouse to a luxury home in King Farm, a large mixed-use development rising in Rockville, about 10 miles closer to his downtown Washington job. Since then, he's only put 5,000 miles on his BMW roadster, commuting instead via the nearby Shady Grove Metrorail station.
Maryland needs many more suburbanites like Mr. Vallese, living in small-lot, closer-in, mixed-use, transit-oriented communities. Otherwise, 20 years from now, even with the state's relatively strong growth-management efforts, a million more people in Maryland will result in 50 percent more developed land in central Maryland - and more sprawl, pollution, congested roads and statewide economic burdens.
To prevent that will take a major state commitment to more transit and related development. That's beginning to happen along the 103-mile Washington Metrorail system, but it's not so evident in the Baltimore region because - despite opening 43 miles of subway and light-rail lines since 1983 - Baltimore still has only pieces of a system.
The lack of a full-scale system retards the development of Baltimore, its region and Maryland. It's not that mass transit by itself would transform Baltimore, it's that the city and its region can't progress without it. The paucity of transit and the reality of highway building to ever distant suburbs are among the strongest forces leading residents and jobs into high-cost, low-density land-use patterns. More transit would not only get cars off roads but also provide a comprehensive blueprint for sparking private redevelopment in the city and inner-ring suburbs.
On election night last month, Lt. Gov.-elect Michael S. Steele declared an end to the state's transportation problems. During his campaign, Gov.-elect Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. vowed to build the Intercounty Connector and study a new Metrorail line, both in Washington's suburbs. He's made no such major commitments to the Baltimore region.
But Baltimore's suburbs were key to his election and, just as in the Washington area, traffic here now regularly shows up in polls as a top concern. In the 1990s, the Baltimore region's traffic volume grew by 23 percent and commuting time lengthened by 15 percent. Ozone levels already are among the nation's worst. And over the next 20 years, regional road congestion is expected to drastically worsen.
Mr. Ehrlich frequently attributes traffic problems to the more than $20 billion of planned but unfunded state highway projects. But by itself, adding highway lane-miles actually brings matching traffic congestion: Increased capacity provides more places to drive, inducing more driving until roads are packed again. In the 1990s, traffic on Interstate 270 in Montgomery doubled within a few years of widening the highway - because that led to a building boom farther out.
A far more promising approach would include a commitment by Mr. Ehrlich to the first stage of the Baltimore Region Rail Plan. The 20- to 40-year, $12 billion plan to add new light-rail or subway lines, 66 miles in all, would more tightly knit White Marsh, Middle River, Dundalk, Glen Burnie, BWI, Columbia, the Route 1 and I-70 corridors, Owings Mills, Hunt Valley and Towson - all through downtown.
The rail plan would only slow the region's traffic growth. But it would be a wise investment because - as cities like Dallas have discovered - transit lines now serve as powerful catalysts for private investment, pulling jobs, shopping and housing back toward regional centers. That's why, despite tight times, two dozen major transit issues were on ballots across the country this fall.
In Baltimore, rail advocates have identified at least 2,000 acres along the rail plan's routes where new development could provide housing and 40 percent of the region's job growth. Baltimore County wants to develop 46 acres at the Owings Mills subway terminus; Howard County eyes Route 1 MARC stations. And on Baltimore's west side, $750 million is being poured into the shells of the state's once-great retail center along Howard Street. With easy access to Interstate 95, the MARC line to Washington, and the city's light-rail and subway lines, developers lay claim to the state's transportation center - particularly if Baltimore develops a substantial transit system.
That can't happen without Mr. Ehrlich aggressively backing the rail plan's first new lines, which could receive at least 50 percent federal funding in next year's authorization - leaving the state with perhaps $1 billion to finance over the next decade. Given Maryland's projected budget deficit, that looks like a huge cost right now, but not over the long term and not compared with, say, plans to spend more than $200 million on widening Route 32 in Howard - a road that would be packed again in five years.
Right now, the Baltimore region is stuck: It can't afford a real transit system without getting stronger, but it can't get stronger without such a system. A political breakthrough is needed - one that's now up to Mr. Ehrlich.
Tomorrow: Region