Anne Arundel County
Annapolis is the favorite to capture its fifth county title in a row, but Southern returns a strong enough nucleus to challenge the Panthers.
The athletic group that captured the 20th county title in 25 seasons under coach John Brady's tenure is back for Annapolis (25-1 last season). The Panthers, who suffered a 70-68 overtime loss to Gwynn Park of Prince George's County in last year's regional final, are the favorite to return the state final four out of the Class 3A East region.
At Southern, All-County forward Adrian Gross and swingman Justin Holland lead a good supporting cast. The 6-foot-6 Gross averaged 17.3 points last season and led the county in rebounding (13.3 a game). The 6-1 Holland averaged 19.2 points. If Southern (15-8) keeps everyone eligible, the Bulldogs can win the 2A South region.
No matter what graduation takes, Meade (19-7) always seems to stand among the contenders, and the Mustangs should be there again along with Glen Burnie (14-9), led by junior guard Mitch Guest.
The most improved teams should be Arundel (8-16), Broadneck (6-17) and possibly a pair of 10-14 teams from last year in Old Mill and South River.
Baltimore City
Defending city and 3A state champion Douglass (28-0) lost all five starters from last season, but with the addition of three transfers, along with holdovers Lonnie Embry and Devine Morris, the West Baltimore school expects to be formidable once again.
Walbrook (18-6) was the area's No. 1 team before Douglass claimed the position with a victory over the Warriors. Expect them to again pose the biggest challenge to Douglass in Division II.
Last year, Southern-Baltimore (14-7) missed the city final for the first time in five seasons. The Bulldogs sense they will rebound.
The Division I race should involve three teams: Mervo, Lake Clifton and Dunbar. The East Baltimore schools will be serious contenders to reach the state semifinals in March.
Mervo (17-9) returns four starters from a team that lost to eventual 4A state champion Eleanor Roosevelt. The Mustangs will get early tests against Washington powers Gonzaga and Dunbar.
Lake Clifton (16-10), which fell to Mervo in last season's South region final, has an experienced backcourt to complement its powerful frontline. The Lakers, Mustangs and Warriors will figure prominently in the region playoffs.
Dunbar lost to Pocomoke of Wicomico County in the 1A state final last season -- only the Poets' second defeat in a state final in nine tries. They then lost All-Metro guard James Taylor and second-team All-City/County guard JuJuan Robinson to graduation. But Dunbar should have enough talent to get back to the state final four.
Baltimore County
Only a loss to Douglass kept Randallstown from defending its 3A state championship last season. The Rams (25-1) will again be the team to beat in the county with All-Metro guard Levi Stukes, and Douglass likely will stand in their way of the North region title again.
Milford Mill could challenge the Rams for the Division I title with four holdovers and several promising players from the JV.
Eastern Tech advanced to the state semifinals for the first time last season. The Mavericks lost Rudy Gay, who transferred to Archbishop Spalding, but they still retain have 6-7 center/forward Josh McKay.
With four returning starters, Lansdowne believes it can finally contend for the county title. Woodlawn (14-9) nearly upended Randallstown in the county championship game last season. The Warriors return only one starter, but four performers 6-4 and taller are up from JV.
Teams to watch in Division II are Hereford and Pikesville.
Defending Division III champion Owings Mills should get a stern challenge from Loch Raven, which has Towson Catholic transfer Matt Stevenson.
Carroll County
The county will feature three new coaches, a new team in first-year Century and, perhaps most importantly, a wide-open race.
Greg Mihalko, a 1995 South Carroll graduate, takes over the helm at his alma mater, which returns plenty of experience in the backcourt in second-team All-County guard Shane Beccio and top reserve Corey Greene. What the defending county champion is missing, however, is someone to fill the large shoes of departed All-Metro center Josh Boone, who led the Cavaliers to the 3A state semifinals.
With their tallest player just 6-3, look for the Cavaliers to press more and look to run the ball. Westminster (12-11) could be South Carroll's successor as the team to beat. The Owls will feature a quick, open offense with three or sometimes even four guards, led by second-team All-County choice Ryan Carr.
With games against Calvert Hall, Cardinal Gibbons and Thomas Johnson to open the season, the Owls will quickly know what they're made of.
Led by 6-5 Chris Bassler, the top big man in the Monocacy Valley Athletic League, and first-team All-County fullback Josh Rutter, Francis Scott Key could have the best frontcourt in the county. Guard play will determine if the Eagles can improve on last season's 12-12 mark.
Harford County
Aberdeen will be a marked team this season. The defending co-champion (17-7) is a deep and has a lot of size. The Eagles' 7-foot center, sophomore Robbie Jackson, will give opponents fits in the paint.
The other co-champ, Edgewood (19-6), will be in the hunt again but lacks size. The Rams beat Aberdeen three times last season, including a lopsided win in a 2A regional semifinal.
From there, the county is wide-open. Havre de Grace returns forward Richard Johnson, along with five other seniors. Fallston boasts size with a trio of 6-6 players and a pair that stands at 6-5. Matt Jurgensen takes over for the Cougars as their coach.
Bel Air second-year coach Chris Harney has a sophomore-heavy squad that should surprise. Junior guard Randy Jones is the lone returning starter for the Bobcats (6-17); he is a potent three-point shooter (43 percent last season).
C. Milton Wright (10-13) is an inexperienced, scrappy team that finished tied for fourth last season with Joppatowne (10-10), which returns three starters and seven seniors this season.
Howard County
Long Reach and River Hill pulled away from the pack last season, with the Hawks winning the county title by one game.
Those teams could again be the class of the county. Nearly every other team will feature many new faces.
Long Reach is the preseason favorite on paper, especially since the Hawks graduated 6-10 Player of the Year Kevin Steenberge, who is now playing at the University of Richmond.
The Lightning (18-6) has a pair of outstanding returning guards, the tallest team in the county and plenty of experience. Point guard Mike Smelkinson is coming off a sophomore season in which he earned first-team All-County honors after averaging 12.5 points and 6.2 assists.
Long Reach also has a pair of experienced 6-5 players: senior Terrell Blackwell and junior Zach Hines.
River Hill (17-6) returns two strong guards, Wes McCoy and Richie Jackson, along with 6-6 center Matt Glover.
Oakland Mills also returns two good guards, Bryce Gaeng and C.J. King. Glenelg has fourth-year player Kevin Ganascioli and 6-5 junior Dallas Davidson.
Atholton returns leading scorer and rebounder Micah Mbah and looks to be much improved.
Private schools
Archbishop Spalding is clearly the top contender in the Baltimore Catholic League/Maryland Interscholastic Athletic Association A Conference. What's up in the air: Which team will finish second to the loaded Cavaliers?
Spalding returns a host of key players from a team that won both the combined league regular-season and tournament championships.
The trio of St. Maria Goretti of Hagerstown, Calvert Hall and Mount St. Joseph is expected to be at the top again, but look out for an improved St. Frances.
St. Paul's is the defending MIAA B Conference champion and should be challenged again by Gilman, last year's runner-up, Archbishop Curley, Boys' Latin and an improved St. Mary's.
A pair of 6-5 seniors in Pat Mahoney and Jeff Postell of Boys' Latin and St. Mary's, respectively, will be among the league's best players.
Arlington Baptist finished fourth in the C Conference regular season at 11-5, but buzzed through the playoffs and defeated Annapolis Area Christian School in the tournament final. AACS tied Glenelg Country for second place at 12-4 behind first-place Chapelgate Christian (14-2).
All four of those schools have key returnees, which should make the C Conference very competitive once again.