Sales of existing homes nationally rose 6.1 percent in October, surprising several economists who attribute projections for a second consecutive record-breaking year to mortgage rates that have hit four-decade lows.

The National Association of Realtors said yesterday that sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million homes last month - up from 5.44 million in September and tied with April for the third-highest annual rate on record. Most economists had expected the numbers to fall, given a summer of strong sales and a record year in 2001.

The Chicago-based Realtors' association is projecting a record year for sales in 2002, saying the figures will rise at least 3.4 percent above 2001, which set a record.

Celia Chen, a senior economist with West Chester, Pa.-based Economy.com, said she expected sales to slow, believing the record homebuying pace could not be sustained. But Chen said that as mortgage rates dropped further, many buyers and sellers believed that they should act now or miss out on the historic lows.

The average interest rate last week in the Baltimore metropolitan area was 6.21 percent for a 30-year fixed mortgage, according to HSH Associates in Butler, N.J. The average 15-year rate was 5.61 percent. The Mortgage Bankers Association of America said this month that 30-year rates - which fell as low as 5.74 percent - reached lows not seen since the 1960s.

Sales in the Baltimore metropolitan area were 10.64 percent above where they were the previous October, according to figures collected by Metropolitan Regional Information Systems Inc., the Rockville-based multiple-listing service. The median sales price of existing homes in the Baltimore area last month was $151,950, a 15.82 percent increase from a year earlier. Nationally, the median price was $159,600 - a 9.8 percent increase from a year ago.

Baltimore-area real estate representatives said the national figures make sense given the volume of business they have been recording locally. But some real estate agents said home values are not rising as fast as they did a few months ago, and homes are staying on the market longer than in the past.

"Based on what I'm hearing from our brokers and our lenders, we're finding that the volume has just been unprecedented throughout the year, and they just don't see an end in sight," said Barbara Schmitt, president of the Maryland Mortgage Bankers Association.

The nation's strong housing market has been one of the few bright spots in an economy that has struggled to recover. Besides home sales, low mortgage rates have helped fuel a record number of refinancings, giving consumers access to home equity dollars. Also, a volatile stock market has moved more investments into real estate, where many buyers said they feel more comfortable parking their money.

John Waldhauser and his family recently sold their home in Fallston for the $212,000 asking price. The family will build a home in Bethany Beach, Del. Waldhauser said he was concerned that home values were rising and that if he didn't move now, the family could get priced out of the market. Waldhauser has never invested in stocks, saying he has more confidence that certain property values will rise given the neighborhoods where they are located.

"Typically, it's easier to see what's going to go up and what's going to go down in value," Waldhauser said.

Real estate agents said they expected a slowdown last weekend because buyers and sellers typically take the time around Thanksgiving and the end of the year to put their home shopping on hold. Pat Hiban, an associate broker with Re/Max Advantage Real Estate in Howard County, said prices are not holding as strong as they did this summer and some sellers are being forced to lower their initial listing prices. Even so, he said, open houses last weekend were busy.

"Every time you think it's going to slow down, you get a little spike and things get busy again," Hiban said.