WASHINGTON - There are some indelible truths about Washington: Summers are humid. Restaurants are empty when Congress is not in session. And the president will shake up his team about every two years.
President Bush enjoys high public approval ratings and is basking in the glow of a Republican election victory. Even so, changes are likely in Bush's Cabinet or among his top advisers over the next few months, White House aides and others say.
Even popular presidents, they note, tend to replace some senior officials as they retool their administrations and fine-tune their messages. The midpoint of a four-year term is a natural time to do that, especially if a president is preparing for a possible re-election run, as Bush is.
Typically, a few Cabinet secretaries leave on their own every two years or so, eager to say goodbye to the tough demands and grueling hours, and forcing the president to make new appointments.
"Bush is in good shape politically - so, really, there is no reason to sack any Cabinet member for political reasons right now," said Charles Black, a Republican strategist who is close to the White House. "But history tells you, you lose one or two Cabinet officers after two years. It's the law of averages, and someone will pop up."
Bush has made it clear that he wants Vice President Dick Cheney to be his running mate in 2004. And there is no discussion, White House aides say, about replacement of prominent members of the Bush team, such as Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, Attorney General John Ashcroft, national security adviser Condoleezza Rice or chief political adviser Karl Rove.
The rumor mill
Speculation has instead focused on lesser-known Cabinet members, such as Tommy G. Thompson, the secretary of health and human services, and Norman Y. Mineta, the transportation secretary. Neither has a long history of serving the Bush family - as, for example, do Cheney, Powell and Andrew H. Card Jr., the White House chief of staff. Nor do Thompson or Mineta have roots in Texas, as does Education Secretary Rod Paige, the former Houston schools chief. Rather, Thompson and Mineta have long been viewed as relative outsiders.
Thompson, the former governor of Wisconsin, openly expressed unhappiness with his job early on and said he missed his home state.
Meanwhile, sources say the White House has floated the idea of replacing Mineta - a former Democratic congressman who served as commerce secretary under President Bill Clinton and who, at 70, is the oldest person in the Bush Cabinet - with Spencer Abraham, the current energy secretary. Abraham had originally lobbied for the transportation post, but Bush offered him the energy job after settling on Mineta two years ago.
Another truth about Washington, of course, is that speculation is always rampant - and sometimes wrong.
Agriculture Secretary Ann M. Veneman, another Cabinet member without longstanding ties to Bush, was rumored to be leaving a year ago. In September, Veneman announced that she had an early form of breast cancer and would undergo treatment. But she is still on the job and has said that she has no plans to leave.
Numerous reports a year ago indicated that Treasury Secretary Paul H. O'Neill was about to be axed. The often quirky O'Neill had embarrassed the administration on several occasions, publicly showcasing disagreements with Bush or appearing unconcerned by a struggling economy. But O'Neill remains on board, laying the groundwork for a possible Bush overhaul of the federal tax code. And sources say he is staying put for now.
Some presidents have faced political pressure to shake up their Cabinets, to energize their agenda or build trust with voters. But Bush, who enjoys approval ratings near 65 percent and is fresh off a Republican election sweep, has no such imperative.
"When you're flush with victory, I don't see changing many horses," said Tom Korologos, a Republican lobbyist. "Because this thing has worked."
The exception might be the Bush economics team. A sagging economy can damage even a popular president, as Bush's father learned all too well.
Critics have called for the president to bring in an economic adviser who is eloquent in public and could go in front of cameras to calm Americans worried about their jobs and pocketbooks.
Bush's top economic adviser, Lawrence Lindsey, has been criticized for failing to inspire confidence and to reassure the public. Bush said recently that he has faith in his economic team, though he did not rule out changes.
One move that Bush did make was to pressure Harvey L. Pitt to resign this month as chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission. At a time when investors and other Americans are suspicious of the behavior of business executives, Pitt had gained an image of being too lax on corporate abuses.
The final straw was Pitt's failure to inform other SEC commissioners that his selection for chairman of a board to monitor the accounting industry had led the audit committee of a company accused of fraud.
Those close to Bush say that he, like his father, places a premium on loyalty, but that he became convinced that Pitt was a growing political liability.
"He does not feel any personal need for someone to take the fall or take blame," said one longtime Bush adviser and friend. "But if you've got a pervasive problem, like with Pitt, there may be a need for someone to go."
One guaranteed change in the Cabinet will be the appointment of a secretary of homeland security, leading a new 170,000-employee department that Congress is expected to create soon. News reports suggest that Bush has settled on Tom Ridge, the White House homeland security adviser, to head the department.
At least two others were also being considered for the job: Joe M. Allbaugh, a former aide to Bush in Texas and current director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and Paul McHale, a former Democratic congressman from Pennsylvania and Marine colonel in the Vietnam and Persian Gulf wars.
Two Cabinet members - Mitchell E. Daniels Jr., the White House budget director, and Mel Martinez, the secretary of housing and urban development - are being urged to run for governor in their home states. Neither appears likely to leave soon, though Martinez is said to be under consideration for a different Cabinet post.
In Indiana, Republicans are laying the groundwork for Daniels to run for governor in 2004.
And in Florida, Martinez is widely assumed to be a leading candidate to run in 2006, when Gov. Jeb Bush will be barred from seeking a third term. One potential challenger joked in public about how much he wants Martinez to keep enjoying his job in Washington.
Loyalty and purpose
So far, Bush has seen fewer defections from his administration - and he has fired fewer people - than many previous presidents. The only high-level departure this year was that of Karen P. Hughes, Bush's longtime senior adviser, who returned to Texas with her homesick family. But she has made frequent trips to Washington, still travels with the president and writes some of his speeches.
Administration officials say Bush demands loyalty from those working for him, and that he returns that loyalty. He has stood by people, such as O'Neill and Army Secretary Thomas E. White, who have come under intense criticism.
Aides say that the Bush personal qualities that attract many voters also play well with his staff. His plain-spoken style, they say, makes it enjoyable to work for him, easier to understand what he expects and harder to quit. One aide spoke of how the president talks often with staff members about how they serve the American people and about their sense of duty.
Bill Greener, a Republican consultant, said the Sept. 11 attacks gave pause to administration officials who had considered leaving but who felt that their jobs now had a higher purpose.
"For some, you're in an administration, working ungodly hours, grinding away, and you finally say, 'What for?'" Greener said. "After Sept. 11, that discussion took on a whole new equation. Sept. 11 really reshaped people's emotions and sentiments about public service."