Four years ago, Anne Arundel County Executive Janet S. Owens easily ousted Republican incumbent John G. Gary Jr. even though most of her constituents backed Republican Ellen R. Sauerbrey for governor.
This year, Owens again bucked a strong Republican voting trend -- with 65 percent of county voters backing Republican Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. in the general election Tuesday.
Owens squeaked by GOP challenger Phillip D. Bissett by just 6,175 votes out of 172,405 cast.
Her supporters say that she survived the Republican tsunami that overwhelmed other local Democrats, including a popular state senator from Annapolis, because she is well-liked by voters across the political spectrum.
"The Ehrlich tidal wave should have put her under," Bob DiPietro, Owens' campaign spokesman, said Friday. "But she rode the wave to success. That's outstanding."
But some say Owens' narrow win, coupled with Ehrlich's strong showing and the GOP's retaking of the County Council, illustrates how the fast-growing county is becoming more conservative.
Nearly 22,000 more voters cast ballots this year than in 1998. Of those who've registered since 2000, more than 3,000 are Republicans and 427 are Democrats.
And while county Democrats still outnumber Republicans 124,072 to 105,739 (with about 40,000 unaffiliated), they have a long history of voting for Republican nominees for president and governor.
"As a county with an impressive stretch of bay, we have been able to draw a certain crowd," said Terry R. Gilleland, chairman of the Anne Arundel County Republican Central Committee.
He noted that Republican enclaves have emerged in the Pasadena and Annapolis areas.
"These are people who vote for elected officials who will ensure that we have a smaller government, less taxes and less of a burden on businesses."
Still others say that Owens' popularity ratings have taken a nose-dive.
Even her closest advisers, some of whom participated in an Election Day pool, were surprised that she didn't win by a wider margin than 52 percent to 48 percent. The winner of the pool had predicted 55 percent.
"The fact that an incumbent won by such a narrow margin could certainly mean that there is some dissatisfaction," said Gilleland.
In fact, a precinct-by-precinct breakdown prepared by the county board of elections shows that some residents may have lost faith in Owens, who ran as an agent of change in 1998 but was criticized for making some of the same mistakes as her predecessor.
Like Gary, Owens also looked to developers to fill her campaign coffers, and upset some voters who wanted less growth in environmentally sensitive areas.
In precincts near the former David Taylor Research Center, where homeowners criticized Owens for supporting a redevelopment plan that they said could increase traffic on local roads, voters supported Bissett over Owens.
At St. Margaret's Episcopal Church, located north of the shuttered military base, Bissett got 667 votes. Owens received 365.
Southern rebellion
Voters also rebelled in precincts in the southern part of the county.
In Deale, Shady Side and Traceys Landing, voters cast more ballots for Bissett than the Democratic incumbent, who was born and raised in Bristol. At Deale Elementary School, Bissett won 671 votes to Owens' 544. Residents in Deale were upset when Owens wavered on a plan to build a large Safeway near established wetlands.
Bissett, a former legislator who waited three days after Tuesday's election to concede the race, and only after elections officials had tallied about 6,000 absentee ballots, said that election results proved Owens' base of support has dwindled.
Bissett said that if he had received earlier support from party leaders and more money to spend in his campaign against Owens -- she collected $582,000 to his $96,000 -- he might have won.
Bissett said he doesn't believe that Ehrlich's popularity helped him gain on Owens.
"There were no coattails in my race that we saw," he said.
Owens' margin of victory in the 2002 election was slimmer than the one she boasted in 1998.
In that year, Owens, a political upstart who offered a stark contrast to Gary's bully attitude, received 58 percent of the vote; Gary took 42 percent.
The incumbent's win also was less decisive than those of Democratic county executive candidates in Howard and Baltimore counties, where suburban voters also chose Ehrlich to be their next governor.
In Howard County, Democratic incumbent James N. Robey won 58 percent of the vote in defeating Republican Steven H. Adler.
In Baltimore County, Democrat James T. Smith received 56 percent in outpacing Republican Douglas B. Riley.
Less GOP support
It may have helped Robey and Smith that voters in their jurisdictions were less receptive to the GOP.
Ehrlich won 65 percent of the vote in Anne Arundel compared to 61 percent and 55 percent in Baltimore and Howard counties respectively.
In this month's balloting, Owens actually garnered 1,614 more votes than she did in 1998.
She also won almost one-third more votes than Democratic gubernatorial candidate Kathleen Kennedy Townsend got in the county, a fact that campaign officials say proves that her popularity is rock-solid and widespread among Republicans and Democrats.
Owens survived, while other Democrats, including a state senator, two delegates and two council members fell.
"For her to have survived this effort on the part of the Republicans and her political adversaries who thought they could knock her off is significant," said Carl O. Snowden, a member of Owens' cabinet and a close adviser.
"There are state-level players who are calling her to congratulate her."
DiPietro boasted that despite an onslaught of residents who rushed to the polls to vote for Ehrlich, Owens managed to keep her roost.
Owens campaign officials suggested that her success at the polls Tuesday puts her in a strong position to vie for statewide office, should she choose that route.
"This election proves that she was acceptable to both parties," DiPietro said.
"She has a lot of potential for the future."