"Well, that's easy for you to say," might be the words out of many investors' mouths these days when presented with a list of stocks to avoid. Any market, including a bear market, is rife with crummy companies that aren't worth a dime. However, many stocks our analysts follow are worth plenty, just a lot less than the market is offering.
Below, you'll find six widely followed, industry-leading companies that we think have substantially overvalued share prices. Whether it's deteriorating fundamentals, declining market share or just plain irrational pricing, our analysts think the stocks below don't make the grade as smart investments now. Some of these stocks are expensive enough that we believe they could be headed for a fall, possibly to prices at which they'd be a lot more attractive.
eBay. The company has executed its business plan flawlessly, but it remains quite expensive by just about any measure. The company would have to keep growing at a breakneck pace while improving profitability to justify its current price. Our best estimate of eBay's fair value is $47 a share. The stock would have to come down considerably before we could recommend investing.
Starbucks. We're starting to see cracks in Starbucks' growth story. Without enough cash on hand to fund alternative strategies, Starbucks has no choice but to license. We wouldn't buy the shares unless they fell to around $10.
Nokia. The cellular phone industry's growth has hit a wall, making Nokia's rapid growth history. The company's September quarter looked like the story of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, and a recent run in the stock keeps us on the sidelines. We estimate the stock to be worth about $14 a share.
Gap. A successful turnaround might still be possible, but we think it's a long shot. The Gap brand's pricing power is largely gone, and we expect the company's gross margins to remain well below their average. We view its shares as risky, and wouldn't touch them until they hit $3.
Electronic Arts. Given the cyclical nature of the electronic-games industry, we think taking a slightly more conservative view of the stock is justified. Our fair value estimate of $58 is based on the assumption that the company will achieve economies of scale that allow it to improve margins. We'd suggest waiting for a lower price -- preferably a 30 percent discount to our fair value estimate -- before buying.
Harley-Davidson. We're big believers in strong consumer brands and find Harley-Davidson to be one of the most robust of all, but the prospect of lower returns makes it hard for us to put a premium valuation on Harley stock. We believe the company's wide economic moat makes Harley an attractive investment, but only in the mid-$30s.
Don't get us wrong: These are all great companies that have had a lot of success in the past. But a great company and a great stock are two different things. We think these stocks are just too expensive to make them worth buying right now.