The housing sector has put a shine on an otherwise scuffed-up national economy. But some economists now wonder if the gloss is starting to wear.

"Housing is not going to collapse, but it certainly is going to weaken," said Celia Chen, a housing economist at Economy.com in West Chester, Pa. "That will mean the sector is not going to be as much of an expansionary force on the economy as it has been the last year or so."

Still-brisk home sales will likely make 2002 another record year thanks to decades-low interest rates. The sector will continue to play a positive role driving the economy forward.

What concerns the economists is that the recent home-sales trend is pointed south. Nationally, sales of existing homes have dropped slightly from a little over 6.05 million in January, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Chen finds that trend somewhat troubling because it shows the weakening of a "growth driver for an economy that needs all the help it can get."

"Housing is playing a shock-absorber role for the U.S. economy," said Ethan Harris, co-chief U.S. economist at Lehman Brothers in New York. "Where housing is going is a big part of any economics call right now."

While most experts say the economy emerged from recession in January, actual proof is hard to see. The job market remains weak and few businesses are hiring or expanding.

Largely boosted by the booming housing market, consumers have spent the nation out of recession over the past two years.

The economic impact of one home sale goes beyond buyer and seller. Builders prosper, agents and bankers receive commissions, furniture and appliance vendors make sales.

But Chen is already seeing the persuasive force of low interest rates begin to buckle. "We've been depending on consumers for a long time," she said. "There is not much pent-up demand left."

And as the economy expands, interest rates will inevitably rise. That, in turn, will slow housing activity.

"If you're in a local economy that's lagging behind the nation, now your local housing market no longer has the drug fix of ever-falling mortgage rates and you don't have the income growth driving the local economy," Harris said. "Because mortgage rates are rising and incomes are not rising, they will have very vulnerable housing markets."

Housing bright spots do remain, of course. The average interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages dipped to 6.11 percent last week from 6.13 percent a week earlier, fueling real estate sales and refinancings, and industry observers expect a further drop as a result of last week's interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve Board. Sales of new homes hit a record seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.021 million units in September, up slightly from what had already been a record-breaking pace in August, the Commerce Department has reported. Adding to the positive news, the Commerce Department report also showed continuing strong house-price performance and a relatively slim inventory of new homes for sale.

Still, Chen points out that new-home sales account for only 15 percent of total sales.

"Housing activity will not expand further, but it will provide a stabilizing force for an economy this is struggling to maintain its expansion," she said. "For an economy increasingly at risk of returning to recession, however, this modest outlook for housing is not positive news."