Without a Democrat in the governor's mansion for the first time in more than three decades, speculation already has begun over who might step forward to challenge Gov.-elect Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. in 2006.

Topping the list of potential candidates are Montgomery County Executive Douglas M. Duncan and Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley - though both insist that four years is a long way off and that they have no interest in anything other than their current positions.

"They're clearly the front-runners, the leaders," said Donald F. Norris, a policy sciences professor at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County. "If the party is going to have a future, it's going to be with young guys like them."

Even as Maryland Democrats expressed bitter disappointment over Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend's loss, they insisted yesterday that the election was not a repudiation of their party's philosophy or agenda.

"It certainly was not a referendum on the party," said Montgomery County State's Attorney Douglas F. Gansler. "Montgomery County and the state are still very much Democratic. I think Ehrlich's election is an aberration. It was a blip on the screen."

Democrats C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger and Christopher Van Hollen Jr. picked up two congressional seats that had been held by Republicans. The party won the other two statewide offices that were up for election. And Democrats maintained large majorities in both chambers of the General Assembly.

"If Dutch and Chris had lost, or even if one of them had lost, then it would have been time for a severe, introspective, 'Where have we gone wrong?' period," said Herbert C. Smith, a political science professor at McDaniel College.

In fact, Democrats now have one more state Senate seat than they had after the 1998 election - though the mid-term party switch of two GOP senators means there will be one fewer Democratic senator than in the most recent Assembly session.

"The Democrats from Maryland are still very strong. Name another state which gained congressmen," said Secretary of State John T. Willis, a longtime party strategist. "This was not a party thing."

Though Maryland has many veteran Democratic legislators on the federal level - including Sens. Paul S. Sarbanes and Barbara A. Mikulski, and Reps. Benjamin L. Cardin, Albert R. Wynn, Elijah E. Cummings and Steny H. Hoyer - the Democratic governor has traditionally led state politics.

"I think you've got a full range of leaders who are going to do exceptionally well," said Gov. Parris N. Glendening, who is also head of the Democratic Governors Association. "Our congressional delegation gives us a lot of great leadership. ... At the local level, you've got some very good leaders, and then within the legislature itself."

Del. Howard P. Rawlings, a longtime leader in the House, said he sees several potential leaders emerging to lead the Democrats. "We have Dutch Ruppersberger and Chris Van Hollen. Doug Duncan and Martin O'Malley are veterans. Doug Duncan would be a great leader of the Democratic Party," the Baltimore Democrat said.

Most Democrats say it is far too early for campaigning to begin in earnest for the 2006 gubernatorial election.

"I think you'll see a lot of that jockeying for position for governor deferred for a couple of years as we look at resolving the deficit and work on the other big issues," said Del. Peter Franchot, a Montgomery Democrat. "I think that will take priority."

But Duncan and O'Malley are already seen as leading candidates, particularly because both strongly considered gubernatorial campaigns before stepping aside for Townsend.

"They both bring substantial political bases," said pollster Keith Haller, president of Potomac Survey Research. "O'Malley would have the edge for his ability to penetrate the Baltimore suburbs against Ehrlich. I think Duncan would have a broader appeal either as a fiscal conservative or being able to run an efficient ship, keeping taxes down while still delivering essential services."

Cardin - who flirted with challenging Glendening in 1998 - also is mentioned as a potential candidate. So is Prince George's County Executive Wayne K. Curry, who is taking a break from politics after being prohibited by term limits from seeking a third term.

Besides the governorship, party officials mention other plum prizes that have long been held by Democrats and are eyed by the party's rising stars: the Senate seats held by Mikulski and Sarbanes. Mikulski is up for re-election in 2004 and Sarbanes in 2006, but they have given no indication that they're contemplating retirement.

As Democrats look toward at least four years without control of Maryland's top office, many are talking about a need for the party to correct mistakes from this week's election.

"I think in the long run, this is going to be healthy," said Del. Cheryl C. Kagan, a Montgomery Democrat and campaign consultant who did not seek re-election this year. "This kind of shake-up is going to force the Democratic Party to listen more carefully and work harder in order to reflect the Maryland voters' priorities better."

Duncan hopes that other jurisdictions will look to Montgomery as a model because of big Democratic wins at the local level - leaving just one Republican on the County Council and one Republican in the legislative delegation. "We've got a message here for parties across the state of Maryland," he said.

Many of the state's more liberal Democrats say they hope Townsend's loss forces the party to focus on a more traditional agenda, rather than pushing it toward the political center. They point out that registered Democrats still outnumber Republicans 2-to-1.

"The Democratic Party has got to be about something other than a smorgasbord for interest groups," O'Malley said. "We just never were able to click on that, though we started making some strides in the end, at least in our core areas.

"I don't think we need two Republican parties. The guys that do tax cuts for the rich and believe that less and less government is the way to go - they've got their party. They do it fine," O'Malley said. "We need to articulate a more progressive view. We didn't do that as well as we could have."

Sun staff writers Ivan Penn and Eric Siegel contributed to this article.