Carroll Democrats woke up Tuesday thinking they might win a few offices in an increasingly moderate county. They went to bed demoralized, having watched Republican candidates win big on every level of county and state government.
The whupping started at the top of the ticket, with GOP gubernatorial candidate Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. winning 79 percent of the county vote, and extended to the most obscure courthouse race. County voters elected three Republican commissioners, a Republican sheriff and an all-Republican delegation to Annapolis, just as they did in 1998.
Their triumph was part of one that resounded across the state, where Ehrlich won and Maryland's Democratic Speaker of the House Casper R. Taylor appeared on the way to losing his seat after 28 years, and the nation, where Republicans recaptured control of the Senate and retained firm control of the House of Representatives.
"I never doubted that we would sweep the races again," said Robert Wolfing, chairman of the county's Republican State Central Committee. "But the margin was unbelievable."
Wolfing, like many county political observers, said Ehrlich's popularity in Carroll accounted for the degree of dominance.
"I told all our candidates from the beginning that he would have incredibly long coattails," Wolfing said. "I told them the best thing they could do was to join the Ehrlich team. I told them it would pay big dividends, and it did."
Democrats couldn't have overcome Ehrlich's margin no matter how persuasive they were on local issues, said Herb Smith, political scientist at McDaniel College.
"When the margin gets that high, there's almost no way the Democrats ... on the rest of the ticket can win," Smith said. "The ratio is just too much."
Democrats offered similar explanations.
"We had weakness at the top of our ticket and that's hard to overcome," said Thomas McCarron, chairman of the county's Democratic State Central Committee. "I think it was a Republican day statewide and nationally, but to be honest, we really don't have all the answers as to why we had a poor showing."
Few questioned that Ehrlich would win in Carroll, but many observers, including Republicans, expected closer races for the three commissioner seats and for the delegate seats in District 5A, which covers northern and central Carroll, and District 9B, which covers South Carroll.
Republicans outnumber Democrats by about 14,000 among the county's 87,000 registered voters.
But the theory went that even GOP voters were fed up with commissioners and legislators who couldn't get along with state Democratic leaders or keep growth from speeding ahead of county services.
Democrats took particular hope from a Republican commissioners primary in which the moderate trio of Julia Walsh Gouge, Dean L. Minnich and Perry L. Jones Jr. soundly defeated conservative incumbents Donald I. Dell and Robin Bartlett Frazier.
But whatever qualms county voters had with Dell and Frazier did not extend to the remaining Republicans. Gouge, Minnich and Jones ran away from their Democratic foes, sweeping almost every precinct in Carroll.
"This election confirms what a lot of people have said privately about this county for a long time, which is that it has a one-party system," said Ross Dangel, spokesman for Freedom Area Citizens' Council, an Eldersburg-based community group that has often criticized Carroll conservatives. "There was a mandate for change in the primary, but I think Democrats made a mistake by thinking that was a party thing. I think it was more like, 'Hey, these people have to go.'"
In other county races that some thought might be close, incumbent Dels. Carmen Amedori and Nancy Stocksdale easily defeated a challenge by Westminster pediatrician Dr. Robert Wack in District 5A. Smith mentioned Wack as a candidate who ran an excellent campaign but was buried by the Ehrlich landslide.
Many observers also expected a competitive race between Republican Susan W. Krebs and Democrat Kenneth Holniker in District 9B, but Krebs, the departing president of the county school board, won easily.
Carroll County
44 of 44 precincts reporting
County commissioner
(3 seats)
Julia Walsh Gouge, GOP (i) 38,570.......26
Dean L. Minnich, GOP..............36,020......24
Perry L. Jones Jr., GOP............30,335......20
Neil Ridgely, Dem. .....................14,358.......9
Jeannie Nichols, Dem. .............13,750.......9
Betty L. Smith, Dem. .................12,675.......8
Vince DePalmer............................5,484.......4
George W. Murphy, Green......... 2,776
State's attorney
Jerry F. Barnes, GOP (i) 42,125..........77
Richard Nacewicz, Dem. 12,399....... 23
Circuit Court clerk
Larry W. Shipley, GOP (i) 40,302.......76
James McCarron, Dem. 13,003.........24
Register of wills
Paul G. Zimmerman, GOP ....... 38,094.........73
John Lockard Barnes, Dem. ..14,274........27
Orphans' Court judge
(3 seats)
Dorothy V. Utz, GOP (i) .............. 38,808......34
John David Carbaugh, GOP (i) 30,232......26
Herbert J. Reisig, GOP (i) ..........29,976......26
George E. Maloney, Dem. .........16,667......14
Sheriff
Kenneth L. Tregoning, GOP (i) 38,192.......71
Charles C. Paulsen Jr., Dem. 15,250..........29
Board of Education
(3 seats)
Laura Kelly Rhodes 27,358.....24
Gary W. Bauer (i) .....22,698.......20
C. Scott Stone (i) .....21,311.......19
James E. Reter ........16,982.......15
William Bowen .........13,680.......12
John Frederick Murray Jr. .....12,968........11
(i) = incumbent