Why Sandy Schrader?
Why did voters in Howard County's new Legislative District 13 pick three Democrats to be delegates and two Democrats for the County Council, but elect Republican Sandra B. Schrader to the Maryland Senate - instead of Democratic political institution C. Vernon Gray?
And since the 59 percent of Howard voters who went to the polls also backed Republican Robert L. Ehrlich for governor, why didn't those coattails help GOP candidates Bob Adams and Mary Beth Tung, who ran for delegate with Schrader?
The final election night tally showed Schrader with 731 more votes than Gray, though there are 1,329 District 13 absentee ballots uncounted, according to election board officials.
That means Gray is not mathematically eliminated, but he would need about 75 percent of those ballots to win - a highly unlikely outcome, observers said.
Gray has not conceded, however, and he said yesterday, "We'll see what happens," when absentee ballots are counted. "We ran a positive campaign," he said.
Democrats Shane Pendergrass, Frank S. Turner and Neil Quinter won the three seats in the House of Delegates - with a gap of 2,000 votes between Quinter and Tung, the Republican with the highest total.
With nearly 11,000 more registered Democrats in the district than Republicans, Gray started with a big advantage, not to mention his pervasive name recognition as Howard County's longest-serving and first African-American elected official.
But the outcome of this close contest, like those for most major events, stems from a complex combination of circumstances.
"When you run a campaign, you don't just do literature and a TV commercial - it's all the pieces that fit together that wins or loses it. It's not just one thing," said Pendergrass, one of those successful Democrats.
One major piece was the Court of Appeals redistricting that removed District 13 from a portion of western Anne Arundel County and extended it west through Fulton to Clarksville.
That meant Howard residents angry about Gray's support for huge, new mixed-use developments such as Emerson and Maple Lawn Farms would vote in the district.
"Vernon's never run down there before," while the delegates have, Turner said. "A Senate race is a much more difficult race."
Unofficial precinct results show how badly that hurt Gray and helped Schrader. Three key precincts alone built Schrader a 1,591-vote margin.
At Gorman Crossing Elementary School, which is amid the construction of the Rouse Co.'s big Emerson mixed-use development, Schrader got 662 more votes than Gray - the largest single precinct margin in the district.
At the Schooley Mill Park precinct in Fulton, west of the equally large Maple Lawn Farms project site, Schrader got 430 votes more than Gray, and she picked up 499 votes more than he did at the Fifth District Volunteer Fire Department in Clarksville.
Gray won by 200- to 300-vote margins in his east Columbia base, but he could not overcome his losses outside Columbia.
Schrader and other county politicians said her nearly one year as an appointed senator also helped immensely, as did her support from the county's environmental groups, which labeled Gray with an "F" - mainly for his land-use votes as a member of the county's Zoning Board.
Ehrlich's popularity - he took Howard County with 55 percent of the vote - also helped, as did Schrader's name recognition based on her husband Dennis' four years as a county councilman and his 1998 run for county executive.
"There were coattails. There were people who came up to me who said, 'I'm a Democrat, but I'm voting for you and him [Ehrlich],'" Schrader said.
"Incumbency helped tremendously. It gave me access. All those little things. You're just treated differently," she added.
Schrader was appointed to the state Senate in January when Martin G. Madden resigned - a move he calculated to help his replacement win a full term.
Because Republicans saw Schrader as perhaps their best hope to defeat a prominent Democrat, they helped her, too.
State Sen. Robert H. Kittleman and his son, county Councilman Allan H. Kittleman, both western county Republicans, worked hard for her.
"Allen worked the last month almost exclusively for Sandy. It was a team effort because people sensed it was close enough for her to win," Senator Kittleman said.
Wendy Fiedler, Howard's Democratic Party leader, acknowledged that over 20 years, Gray has taken votes that have not pleased everyone.
"You can't be in public service for 20 years and not have incurred the wrath of some individuals. Vernon clearly has a great record of getting things done. He stood by what he believed in. The only way to avoid that is by being wishy-washy," she said.
Louis M. Pope, the county GOP leader, also noted that "every single incumbent was successful, including Sandy," Pope said.
"Sandy's victory is a significant accomplishment," said Adams, the unsuccessful GOP delegate candidate. "The deck was definitely stacked against her. Vernon is a formidable opponent."
Howard County
93 of 93 precincts reporting
County Executive
James N. Robey, Dem. (i) 52,802.......58
Steven H. Adler, GOP 38,028..............42
Board Of Education
(nonpartisan)
Courtney Watson 48,606.......68
Barry Tevelow 22,990............32
1st Council District
Christopher Joseph Merdon, GOP (i) 12,245.......66
Lynne Bergling, Dem. 6,325..........34
2nd Council District
Dave Rakes, Dem. 8,917......60
Brian Harlin, GOP 5,864.......40
3rd Council District
Guy Guzzone, Dem. 9,512......66
Diane Wilson, GOP 4,913........34
4th Council District
Ken Ulman, Dem. 11,100......59
Joan C. Lancos, GOP 7,854.....41
5th Council District
Allan H. Kittleman, GOP (i) 15,974......72
Stephen Musselman, Dem. 6,193.......28
State's Attorney
Timothy J. McCrone, Dem. 48,321......56
Robert Ryan Tousey, GOP 37,802......44
Circuit Court Clerk
Margaret D. Rappaport, GOP (i) 50,916.....59
Leslie J. Cale, Dem. 35,581.......41
Register of Wills
Kay K. Hartleb (i) 67,928
Orphans' Court Judge
(3 seats)
Joyce Pope, GOP (i) 47,342..........23
Charles M. Coles Jr., GOP (i) 41,278.......20
Sherae M. McNeal, Dem. (i) 40,298.......20
Paul L. Bush, Dem. 36,708........18
Eva-Mae Lloyd, GOP 36,260......18
Sheriff
Charles M. Cave, Dem. (i) 47,753......58
Edward Armanas, GOP 34,983.........42
(i) = incumbent