Economists expect Federal Reserve policy-makers to give the sputtering economy a boost today by shaving a key interest rate a quarter point.

Experts said yesterday that they expect the Federal Open Market Committee - the Federal Reserve's rate-setting arm - to trim the benchmark overnight rate to 1.5 percent from its 40-year low of 1.75 percent, given the economy's fragility.

"I think it is pretty much a foregone conclusion that they are going to ease another 25 basis points," said Robert T. Sweet, chief economist at Allied Investment Advisors in Baltimore. "I think it will be a symbolic thing because the [stock] market suspects it. I don't think they want to surprise the market by not cutting now."

Even though it is down considerably for the year, the stock market has been on a roll in recent weeks. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 10.6 percent last month and rose 106.67 points to close at 8,678.27 yesterday.

If the market keeps rising, confidence among consumers and businesses could be restored and corporations might expand and hire, economists said.

The Fed sifts through many economic factors before making its decisions, however.

"I don't think the Fed needs to do what the market wants it to do," said Carl R. Tannenbaum, chief economist at LaSalle/ABN AMRO Bank in Chicago. "However, they are concerned that in an environment where investors are already quite nervous, it might not be the best time to stand on principles."

Tannenbaum said the financial markets have "moved in expectation that the Fed would be cutting interest rates.

"If the Fed does not deliver on that expectation, the market repercussions could be quite severe," he said.

Economists said yesterday that the economy is growing, but that the growth is likely to slow in the fourth quarter to an annual rate of 1.5 percent to 2.5 percent.

The gross domestic product - the total value of goods and services produced in the United States - grew at a 3.1 percent annual rate in the third quarter, slower than the 3.4 percent average rate of growth over the last 50 years.

"The economy has really fallen back to neutral from a nice forward gear six months ago," said Tannenbaum, who is expecting a quarter-point cut. "Consumers seem to be pulling back just a bit right in front of the all-important holiday season."

Recent government and industry reports have suggested that the economy, which grew briskly in the first quarter of the year, is stuck.

Factory orders slipped 2.3 percent in September after dipping 0.4 percent in August. The September decline was the third decrease in four months.

Consumer confidence fell last month to its lowest level since late 1993. And the unemployment rate rose to 5.7 percent last month, up from 5.6 percent the prior month as businesses continued to trim jobs for a second straight month.

There are also concerns that the United States could become embroiled in a war with Iraq.

"When that gets started, it will be the case that consumers are going to be glued to their TV sets; they are not going to be shopping in malls and auto dealer show rooms," said Kenneth Mayland, an economist at ClearView Economics in Pepper Pike, Ohio.

Even if the Fed lowers rates, it will have limited impact on the economy, especially because the cut is likely to be small, experts said. Nevertheless, it would be seen as a positive sign by consumers and corporate executives and could help restore some confidence that has been lost.

"The real impact is relatively limited, but the psychological impact probably would be a little bit more significant," said Patrick Fearon, an economist at A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis.

Mayland said he expects the Fed to reduce rates today but doesn't think it's the right move.

"What they should do is nothing," Mayland said. "By any reasonable measure, interest rates are already lower than a snake's belly."

Mayland said it would take as long as 12 months for a cut to filter through the economy.

"The economic picture is not bleak," he said. "A year ago you could understand ... the fears and the worries. We have had four consecutive quarters of growth. It is a positive thing."

Economists think it will be next year before the economy starts growing at a steady clip.