WASHINGTON - The F/A-22 jet fighter program appears likely to emerge relatively unscathed - at least in the short term - from a Pentagon review due this month.
Defense Department planners probably won't reduce the current production plan through 2009 or make a decision on how many would be bought after that, according to Loren Thompson, an analyst at the Lexington Institute who has talked to numerous senior policy-makers involved in the process.
"The Pentagon has decided to punt on the F/A-22 by sticking with the current program for the time being," Thompson said.
Paul Nisbet, an aerospace analyst at JSA Research Inc. in Rhode Island, said he also would not be surprised to see the final decision delayed.
Currently, the Air Force is scheduled to get 339 F/A-22s, with about 80 of them to be built in 2009 and 2010.
The F/A-22, long a subject of controversy, is one of several major weapons systems being evaluated by the Pentagon.
Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld said this week that he expects the reports by Thanksgiving. The department's Future Years Defense plan, which covers the period through 2009, is to go to Congress early next year.
The current fiscal year defense budget contains $4 billion for 23 F/A-22s, which are assembled at Lockheed's Marietta, Ga., plant.
Initially, the Pentagon review was evaluating the impact of cutting the number to 180, but the figure is now likely to be closer to 240 through 2009. At 339, the current total cost of the F/A-22 program from beginning to end is about $67 billion, according to Lockheed.
That reduced number, which has been floated before, generated a letter last month to Rumsfeld from Georgia Democratic Sens. Zell Miller and Max Cleland, who wrote of their "great concern over reports that ... your staff will propose a significant downward adjustment" in the number of F/A-22s. Miller's office said he is awaiting a reply.
The weapons reviews are part of Rumsfeld's goal of transforming the military into a lighter, quicker and more lethal force. He and his top assistants have been looking for ways to save and reallocate money since the Bush administration took office.
Two moves generated considerable reaction on Capitol Hill: shrinking and consolidating the B-1 bomber force and killing the Crusader artillery system. Some observers believe the Defense Department may have expended so much political capital that leaders are reluctant to take on more.
Nisbet disagrees: "I think Rumsfeld would be likely to do what he thinks best, irrespective of the politics involved."
Several efforts to showcase the F/A-22 across the country are under way.
A high-tech simulator that replicates the feeling of flying the plane is being used in several locations, including a forthcoming display in Southern California, where prominent local politicians have been invited. Also in that area, an F/A-22 was displayed at an air show last month at Edwards Air Force Base, where the planes are being tested.
Last month, a ribbon cutting was held at Tyndall Air Force Base near Panama City, Fla., for the first base set up for pilot and maintenance training on the F/A-22.