WASHINGTON - Heading into the campaign's final hours, the Republicans appear better positioned than the Democrats to gain control of a closely divided Congress in Tuesday's elections.

But many analysts are predicting that control of Congress will remain split between the parties, a reflection of the nation's 50-50 partisan balance and a recipe for continued stalemate on important issues.

"When we come out of this, I think it'll be similar to the numbers when we went in," said Stu Rothenberg, who publishes an independent newsletter on congressional elections.

The Republicans hold a 15-seat advantage in the House of Representatives. In the Senate, the Democrats had a one-seat edge before the recent death of Sen. Paul Wellstone of Minnesota.

The Republicans are heavily favored to retain their razor-thin House majority. But neither party has a clear advantage in the fight for Senate control.

In 20 years of tracking Senate elections, "this is the toughest one to call," Rothenberg said. It is "simply impossible to know" which party will have more senators after this week, he said.

At least seven Senate contests could go either way. Three tossup races - in Arkansas, Colorado and New Hampshire - are for Republican seats. The others - in Missouri, South Dakota, Minnesota and Georgia - have been in Democratic hands.

Thirty-six states, including Maryland, are electing governors. Democratic candidates are favored in many of the largest states, including California, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Illinois. Republicans are seen as winners in Texas, New York and Florida, where President Bush's brother Jeb seeks re-election.

Bush campaigning

The president, leading what may be the most extensive White House mid-term effort ever, is to campaign for Republican candidates in at least six tight Senate races as he touches down in 13 states between Friday and tomorrow night.

"We need to change the United States Senate," Bush told cheering Republicans in East Tennessee yesterday. The president also stumped in two Georgia cities for Rep. Saxby Chambliss - who is threatening to unseat Democratic Sen. Max Cleland - before winding up at a rally in Tampa, Fla., for his brother.

In one indication of the lengths to which Bush is going, he is making last-minute stops on behalf of endangered Republican House members in Pennsylvania, Kentucky and Iowa. Bush has also raised a record $200 million-plus for the Republicans over the past two years.

Politicians in both parties said they saw no indication that a surge was building for either party in the campaign's final weekend.

"We can't see it or find it. There doesn't seem to be any wind, any partisan tide out there," Jim Jordan, executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said yesterday.

In the battle for control of the House, the Democrats have an outside chance to take over for the first time since 1994. But that can happen only if there is an unexpectedly heavy Democratic turnout that tips virtually all the close contests the Democrats' way.

Rep. Thomas M. Davis III of Virginia, the Republicans' leading strategist in the House campaign, was confident that his party would keep control. "We're more likely to pick up seats than lose seats," he said.

The sluggish national economy, which typically would hurt candidates from the president's party in an off-year election, "is not an overwhelming issue" in House races this time, Davis noted. "The Democrats haven't been able to dominate the electorate with their message."

A lopsided Republican advantage in campaign cash is also giving GOP candidates a pivotal boost in close races, according to strategists in both parties.

With no national trend favoring either party, 2002 is shaping up as a traditional mid-term election, in which candidate strengths and weaknesses will determine the outcome.

Because of redistricting, which protected House incumbents this year more than ever, there are fewer than 50 competitive congressional contests nationwide. Two are in Maryland, where Democrats have a chance to unseat Rep. Constance A. Morella in the Washington suburbs and to pick up the suburban Baltimore seat being vacated by Republican Rep. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr., who is running for governor.

Analysts closely tracking individual House match-ups foresee an overall change of fewer than five House seats either way. Charles Cook, an independent handicapper, estimated a gain of up to four seats for the Republicans or a Democratic pickup of perhaps two.

Democrats need to gain at least six seats overall to take the House. That's "tough but doable," said Jenny Backus, a spokeswoman for the party's House campaign committee.

But Alan Secrest, a top pollster for House Democratic candidates, said it appears his party "will come up a little bit short" again.

Door-to-door drive

Voter turnout will be decisive, as it is in every election. At the instigation of White House political adviser Karl Rove, the Republican Party is making a major push between now and Tuesday to improve the party's get-out-the-vote performance at the grass roots.

The door-to-door drive is a response to organized labor's highly successful efforts at turning out union families on behalf of Democratic candidates.

Democrats are hoping that former President Bill Clinton, who headlined a Maryland rally on Friday, can persuade more African-Americans and Hispanics to head for the voting booth in key states.

Minorities are historically less likely than others to vote in nonpresidential elections, though they turned out for Democrats in unusually strong numbers four years ago. This year, there are indications that voter intensity among African-Americans might be weaker, at least in part because the party did not wage an aggressive early campaign for their support.

"This year is going to be a wake-up call for Democrats," said Donna Brazille, manager of Al Gore's 2000 presidential campaign and a key figure in the party's 2002 voter effort. "If you don't talk to the base, you're not going to turn them out."

If Republicans succeed in picking up congressional seats, it would be the first time since 1934 that a new president's party made gains in the House in a mid-term election. The only other time since the Civil War that a president's party added House seats was in 1998, when the Republican strategy of using Clinton's impeachment to rally voters backfired, and Democrats managed to shrink the Republicans' edge.

This time, Republican leaders have been cautious about predicting they'll defy history. "I worked in the Nixon White House in 1970," said Davis, the House Republican campaign chief. "We thought we were going to pick up seats, and we lost seats. You know, this mid-term trend of [the president's party] losing seats is a strong one."

That historical pattern is much weaker in Senate contests. They typically feature better-known candidates who seem better able to sail against national trends.

Key Senate races

Here are states with Senate contests that will determine which party holds sway on Capitol Hill going into the second half of Bush's term and the 2004 presidential election.

Minnesota

One of the state's most revered figures, former Vice President Walter F. Mondale, stepped in last week for Wellstone as the Democratic nominee. Republican Norm Coleman, former mayor of St. Paul, is trailing.

Arkansas

Elected six years ago as a family-values candidate, Republican Sen. Tim Hutchinson disappointed conservatives when he left his wife and married a former aide. Democrat Mark Pryor, son of a popular former senator, is his party's best bet to unseat an incumbent senator.

Colorado

Republican freshman Wayne Allard is the other incumbent keeping GOP leaders awake at night. Democrat Tom Strickland, a lawyer-lobbyist who lost to Allard by 5 points in 1996, is running even with him in the latest polls.

Missouri

Sen. Jean Carnahan, appointed to office after her husband was killed in a plane crash in 2000, has long been regarded as the Democrats' most endangered incumbent senator. Republican James M. Talent, a former congressman from the St. Louis suburbs, holds a tiny lead in the polls.

New Hampshire

Republican chances of retaining this seat improved when moderate Rep. John E. Sununu defeated conservative Sen. Bob Smith in the primary. Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, governor for the past six years, had been struggling against the same anti-incumbent tide that is hurting governors - and lieutenant governors hoping to become governors - around the country. But Shaheen has rallied and made the race a virtual dead heat.

North Carolina

Native daughter Elizabeth Dole has been favored to keep the seat of retiring Sen. Jesse Helms for Republicans. But both parties say the race has tightened as voters warm to former Clinton aide Erskine Bowles.

Georgia

If Republicans succeed in knocking off Democrat Cleland, the cheers from 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. will be audible all the way to Atlanta. Rove, the White House political chief, has tirelessly promoted Chambliss, providing him with ample campaign cash and sending Bush and other top administration bigwigs into the state. Popular Democratic Sen. Zell Miller has made a campaign ad calling Cleland, a triple amputee from the Vietnam War, his "hero." A strong minority turnout is key to the Democrat's survival.

South Dakota

More dollars, per capita, have been spent on this race than any in the country. Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson is relying on help from fellow South Dakotan Tom Daschle, whose future as majority leader could depend on who wins in his home state. Republican Rep. John Thune, who represents the entire state, has run a strong race and would surprise few if he won.

Louisiana

Freshman Democratic Sen. Mary L. Landrieu is expected to finish first against three Republican opponents Tuesday. But unless she gets a majority of the vote, which could be difficult, she'll face the second-place finisher in a runoff next month. If control of the Senate hangs on the outcome, money from both parties will pour into the Bayou State, and all bets would be off.