Republican Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. holds a 4-percentage point lead over Democrat Kathleen Kennedy Townsend with one week to go in Maryland's race for governor, according to a new poll released today.
The Maryland Poll - conducted for The Sun and The Gazette newspapers - found the Baltimore County congressman ahead of the lieutenant governor 48 percent to 44 percent among likely voters in Tuesday's election, with 8 percent undecided.
The results show a 6-point shift in support since the last Maryland Poll a month ago, when Townsend led by 2 percentage points. Ehrlich's lead just exceeds the poll's margin of error, which is 3.4 percentage points.
"Ehrlich has made some strides since early October, and this is how the campaign is breaking in the final week," said Keith Haller, president of Potomac Survey Research Inc. of Bethesda, which conducted the poll for the newspapers. "To be cautious, it is still a very close election by all objective counts. Either party nominee can win it.
"It comes down to how they play their cards, how good they'll be motivating their own respective hard-core supporters."
The poll of 869 likely voters was conducted by telephone Saturday through Monday. Quotas were used to make sure the sample reflected the racial, partisan, age and geographic breakdown of the likely November voters.
The results paint a picture of a geographically fractured state, deeply divided between the "Big Three" Democratic jurisdictions - Baltimore City and Montgomery and Prince George's counties - and everywhere else.
Townsend leads among likely voters in those three areas 64 percent to 28 percent; in the other 21 jurisdictions, Ehrlich is ahead 62 percent to 29 percent. The "Big Three" represent about 44 percent of the state's population and about 41 percent of likely voters, indicating that Townsend's mission in the final week is to emphasize turnout in those areas - following the formula that Gov. Parris N. Glendening used in 1994.
"Townsend must boost voter turnout, especially in the Big Democratic Three among the infrequent voters," Haller said. "But if Ehrlich continues to hold this big lead everywhere else, that might not be enough for her."
Townsend also holds a crushing 82 percent to 6 percent lead among African-American voters. Said retired steel worker Willie Lane, 77, of Cherry Hill: "She's a Democrat and they do a lot for the poor, but Republicans don't do a damn thing for the poor. Education, gun control, his whole philosophy. It's not something I can support."
The poll results suggest Ehrlich's effort throughout the campaign to break racial barriers as a Republican - including choosing an African-American running mate - has had little effect.
"It's not so much a question of message or of picking Michael Steele, but it's a question that he is a Republican," said Ronald Walters, a government and politics professor at the University of Maryland, College Park and director of the African American Leadership Institute. "To a greater extent, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend's message is more trusted. He was a lieutenant of the Republican right. That whole era has scared the hell out of black people."
But Townsend's advertising campaign to paint Ehrlich as being too conservative for Maryland has not changed the minds of many likely voters. Only 32 percent agreed with the statement that "Bob Ehrlich is too conservative for Maryland," while 53 percent disagreed. A month ago, 30 percent agreed with that statement and 54 percent disagreed.
In contrast, Ehrlich is having more success. His efforts to tie Townsend to Glendening - who is unpopular everywhere in Maryland except Baltimore City, Montgomery and Prince George's - seem to have struck a chord among voters.
"I didn't like the fiscal policies that Townsend-Glendening had," said Karin Buchanan, 45, a nurse and registered Democrat who lives in Parkville. "I just don't care for her policies or the things I've heard. I want to try something different.
"I like Ehrlich, and I'm willing to invest four years to see what happens."
Likely voters were asked whether they agreed with the statement: "Kathleen Kennedy Townsend would just continue the policies of the Glendening administration. It's time for a change." About half agreed, while 38 percent disagreed.
"Neither of these candidates has done a very good job of why they should be the governor of Maryland," said Donald F. Norris, a policy sciences professor at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County. "But Bob has done a better job telling voters why she shouldn't be governor, and he has tied her effectively to a very unpopular governor."
The poll found only 37 percent of voters approve of the way Glendening is handling his job as governor, while 48 percent disapprove. His support is strongest in Baltimore City, Montgomery and Prince George's.
A week before the 1998 election, Glendening's job approval was 49 percent in the Maryland Poll, and he led Republican Ellen R. Sauerbrey 52 percent to 44 percent. A month earlier, he had been in a statistical tie with Sauerbrey according to the poll, and he built his lead through gains among African-Americans, women and other traditional Democratic voters.
But today's poll found that Townsend has failed to pick up similar support among many of the same groups. For example, Townsend's lead over Ehrlich among female voters - 49 percent to 42 percent - is less than the 14-point margin that Glendening held over Sauerbrey a week before the 1998 election. The one exception is among African-American voters, where Ehrlich's support of 6 percent is less than the 11 percent that Sauerbrey had with a week to go.
Townsend "just cannot detach herself from Parris Glendening at this time, even among women," said Steve R. Raabe, Potomac's executive vice president.
Similarly, even though Townsend has actively sought support among senior citizens by emphasizing her proposal for prescription drug discounts, Ehrlich leads among voters 65 and older by 49 percent to 44 percent.
Townsend can find hope among the 8 percent of likely voters who remain undecided. Compared to the average likely voter, undecided voters have a more favorable view of both Townsend and her political mentor, Glendening. The poll found that voters who said they made up their mind on the race in the past week are more likely to pick Townsend than Ehrlich.
"As I have said, the most important poll is on Election Day," Townsend said yesterday. "I am talking about issues people care about, prescription drugs, public safety, and I think that's making a difference."
Ehrlich said he perceives momentum to be favoring him in the race. "We are ahead, and we are going to stay ahead," he said. "Am I happy with the momentum? Yes. Am I happy with the feel I get out there? Yes."
The undecided voters say they're distracted by the torrent of what they perceive to be negative advertising, not just by the two campaigns but by outside interest groups such as unions and gun control advocates.
"They're just both cutting each other down so much, it's hard to pay any attention," said Gregory Cross, 55, of Rockville, a Democrat who recently retired from the federal government. "I'm really in favor of the ICC [Inter-county Connector]I'm not sure I trust her about that. But I don't know that I trust the other guy, either."
Even many voters who have made up their mind aren't happy with what they've seen so far from the gubernatorial candidates.
"It's just the lesser of two evils," said Regina Rawlings, 50, of Annapolis, a registered independent who is leaning toward Townsend. "I'm not sure that she's qualified to be governor, and I don't like Ehrlich's politics."
About half of likely voters in the poll had favorable impressions of both Townsend and Ehrlich. But 42 percent of voters had an unfavorable impression of Townsend, compared with 32 percent who had an unfavorable impression of Ehrlich.
With Election Day a week away and both campaigns focusing on voter turnout, Ehrlich's backers seem more firm in their support, according to the poll.
"His campaign strategy has turned out to be very smart," said Matthew Crenson, a political science professor at the Johns Hopkins University. "He went after her in her base in Prince George's and Montgomery, and he kept her in her base so she had to spend time building it."
In Ehrlich, Republicans see their party's best chance in years to capture Maryland's State House - a position that's been held by Democrats for more than three decades.
"I think this is our shot," said Republican Otto Hintze, 69, a retired executive who lives outside of Cambridge on the Eastern Shore. "I see the Republicans getting motivated by 30-some years of Democrats. Everyone here is going to go out and vote for Ehrlich."
The poll found that about a third of voters in Montgomery and Prince George's counties say they're still affected by the sniper shootings this month - though it's not clear whether that has affected their opinions on the gubernatorial election.
The sniper shootings in the Washington suburbs also prompted Townsend to increase advertising and attention on gun control - an issue where she has spotlighted Ehrlich's votes to repeal the federal ban on assault weapons and to oppose the state ban on cheaply made handguns.
"The gun control laws are important, and all the advertisements and television have showed me what he's about," said James Garrett, 75, who lives in Baltimore's Brooklyn neighborhood. He said he made up his mind last week to vote for Townsend.
The poll also showed a significant drop in support among Marylanders for President Bush's proposal to take military action in Iraq.
A month ago, likely voters favored military action, 44 percent to 37 percent. But the poll released today found 37 percent in support of military action and 44 percent opposed.
Sun staff writers Tim Craig and Ivan Penn contributed to this article.