A year ago, says Robert L. Ehrlich Jr., people told him he was crazy. Nuts, they said, to give up a safe congressional seat and take on a Kennedy in one of America's most Democrat-dominated states. Delusional to think he could compete with a candidate who already had collected millions in campaign donations.

"Nobody says that to me today," Ehrlich said recently.

Why would they? For months, despite a less than sparkling debate performance and outcry over his anti-gun control record as a deadly sniper roamed the Washington suburbs, Ehrlich has been tied in the polls with Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. And he's raised $8.6 million.

The explanation for this is a complex political cocktail involving early dissatisfaction with Townsend's campaign and with her boss of eight years, Gov. Parris N. Glendening, whose legacy includes a $1.7 billion budget shortfall. But the poll numbers also reflect that Ehrlich's campaign message has caught on to some extent.

"It's time for a change" has been the theme of his speeches and advertisements. In a state where Democrats have held the governor's office for more than 34 years, the slogan is instantly understood.

More than almost any other aspect of his platform, Ehrlich has emphasized the change he says he would bring to Annapolis, using phrases such as "culture of corruption" and "arrogance of power" to describe the sitting administration and some legislators.

"For 16 years I've been known as an ethical legislator. My reputation in that regard is spotless," he said.

To back up his corruption rhetoric, Ehrlich points to calls Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller and other Democratic lawmakers placed to Maryland's top judges weighing a redistricting lawsuit. He also talks of Glendening angling for the $375,000-a-year job as chancellor of the University of Maryland, to be selected by the Board of Regents he appointed.

"I think that's played up for Bobby very, very well," said Senate Minority Leader J. Lowell Stoltzfus of Somerset. "One of the things that people are getting is that he brings a clean slate. People privately - even Democrats - are very frustrated with Glendening, and some of that has rubbed off on Kathleen. They just don't like him. And you win or lose on whether people like you, frankly."

Even his critics concede that people generally do like Ehrlich, whose easy, jocular style helped deliver his message. His hometown-boy story of blue-to-white-collar ascendancy helps as well.

"I think it means a great deal to people in Harford County," said Del. Charles R. Boutin, former mayor of Aberdeen. "He's got good, basic family core values."

Ehrlich was born in Baltimore County's working-class neighborhood of Arbutus, the only son of a car salesman and a secretary. His grit on the football field led to a scholarship at the Gilman School. From there he went to Princeton University, and then to law school.

"He's a likable guy. He's running on imagery rather than issues and his one big theme is change," said Paul S. Herrnson, director of the Center for American Politics and Citizenship at the University of Maryland. "He's very conservative, particularly for Maryland. But he's conservative without the vitriol of Tom DeLay and Newt Gingrich, so it's very easy to make the assumption that because he's nice, he's moderate."

Townsend has built her campaign partly on Ehrlich's record, relentlessly reminding the public that he voted to eliminate the Department of Education, to lift the federal ban on assault weapons, to reduce spending increases sought by Democrats in the areas of Medicare, Head Start and other programs that benefit the poor and frail.

With a few exceptions, Ehrlich's eight-year congressional record has been conservative, in almost perfect synch with Republican priorities.

Legislation has not been the hallmark of his congressional career. Ehrlich himself says he is most proud of his advocacy for the blind, which has not gained much notice. But his party loyalty allowed him to rise within the GOP leadership, become close friends with House Speaker Dennis Hastert, and gain membership to a high-powered congressional committee and to an elite corps of House whips.

His position in Congress, he says, will prove useful if he's governor as he tries to secure more federal money for Maryland for programs such as Medicare. "I've been joking about how I'm not giving up my office on Capitol Hill," he said. "I've already talked to the speaker about it."

Since announcing his run for governor, Ehrlich has spoken rather infrequently about his congressional record, instead pushing a moderate platform tailored to appeal not only to his core constituents - Republicans and conservative Democrats - but to African-Americans and other groups traditionally hostile to the GOP.

Ehrlich has made no secret that he needs black voters to win. He chose an African-American running mate, Michael S. Steele, and made sure other African-Americans figured prominently in his campaign. In Prince George's County he has talked to affluent black voters about how he'll help their businesses. In Baltimore he has made promises regarding drug treatment, historically black colleges, lead-paint poisoning and the criminal justice system.

Ehrlich believes he has, through luck and strategy, hit on topics that resonate with voters. "The issues environment in the state has generally favored me, and that's fairly unusual for a Republican," he said. "I'm talking about budget, crime, slots."

Especially the budget. "No doubt about it," Ehrlich said, of all the state's problems, the $1.7 billion shortfall has probably helped his candidacy the most. Some polls show it has eclipsed education as voters' top worry.

"I've talked to nurses, psychiatrists, housing advocates, mental health advocates - dozens, hundreds of constituencies. They may not be all-important in terms of numbers. But when you add all of those constituencies together, you realize the budget directly impacts a lot of people in this state," he said. "The more-sophisticated groups understand fully that the governor sets priorities through his or her budget."

In addition, Democratic and Republican lawmakers alike have wrung their hands over the money problem, neutralizing any partisan sting the issue might have and making it especially fair game.

Ehrlich, who has been endorsed by several business groups, says he is better prepared than Townsend to fix the budget; a poll conducted for The Sun last month found most voters agree - even though his budget proposal is merely a "framework" that does not entirely add up. Ehrlich's main money-raising vehicle would be slot machines, which he would like to install at racetracks. He estimates slots could initially raise $380 million for the state in 2004, and between $500 million and $800 million once it's running at full throttle.

While he has promised not to raise income taxes or sales taxes, he has not ruled out a gas tax increase or a regional taxing authority to pay for transportation.

He would save money through 1 percent across-the-board cuts to state agencies in his first six months in office, and 4 percent cuts for the fiscal year beginning July 1. He would offer early-retirement incentives to state employees, and not replace workers who leave.

Ehrlich credits his crime platform with winning him the endorsement of law enforcement groups across the state.

He has been laying Maryland's high rates of violent crime at Townsend's feet. A federal investigation into the Governor's Office of Crime Control and Prevention, which Townsend oversees, has helped make his case. And Ehrlich issued a 40-page indictment of her leadership of the Department of Juvenile Justice, which was forced to close its "boot camps" after The Sun revealed that youths were being beaten in them.

Ehrlich says he would revamp the juvenile justice system, handing the schooling component to the State Department of Education and beefing up drug treatment and mental health services for youths. He would also seek to keep fewer young lawbreakers out of the adult criminal justice system.

Among his first initiatives would be to push for adoption of Project Exile in Maryland. Under that system, people convicted of certain gun crimes are generally given longer sentences in federal prison.

The topic of guns has been a sticky one for Ehrlich, who has consistently opposed gun control legislation. He faced a torrent of criticism from Townsend and anti-gun groups after he said he would "review" certain of Maryland's gun laws to make sure they're effective, including ballistic fingerprinting for handguns.

When people in Montgomery County began getting killed by the serial sniper Oct. 2, voters there - arguably the county most vital to winning the governor's race - began questioning his gun record anew. And Townsend began running anti-Ehrlich television ads showing images of assault rifles.

Ehrlich says the ads probably dampened his campaign in Montgomery, one reason he has redoubled his efforts in next-door Prince George's County.

While Ehrlich has made no public promises about what his administration would look like, it is safe to assume that those who have fought for his candidacy would also be welcome in his Annapolis office. Some of those people could serve to undercut Ehrlich's message of squeaky-clean change.

Among them are state Sen. Clarence M. Mitchell IV, a Baltimore Democrat who has been active in rallying support for him among black residents. Mitchell lost this fall's primary, and campaign insiders say he could end up working in an Ehrlich administration. Mitchell was reprimanded by his Senate colleagues this year for unethical behavior in connection with an undisclosed loan.

Lobbyist Bruce C. Bereano, once convicted of felony mail fraud, has worked aggressively for Ehrlich's campaign and is expected to have Ehrlich's ear if he becomes governor.

Robert L. Ehrlich Jr.

Age: 44

Home: Timonium, Baltimore County.

Education: Princeton University, B.A. in politics; law degree, Wake Forest University.

Family: Wife, Kendel. A 3-year-old son, Drew.

Experience: Attorney at law office of Ober, Kaler, Grimes & Shriver, 1983-1994. Maryland House of Delegates, 1987-1994. U.S. House of Representatives, 1995-2002.

Running mate: Michael S. Steele, attorney and former chairman of the Maryland Republican Party.

THE ISSUES

Economic development

Ehrlich says he would increase minority access to state contracts, and start a pilot program to help fund minority start-up companies. He plans to improve the stature of the Department of Business and Economic Development by aggressively promoting Maryland's business opportunities.

Education

Ehrlich says he would fully fund the Thornton Commission recommendations for increased public school spending of $1.3 billion over six years. He plans to convene "Thornton II," a panel that would look at teaching practices such as social promotion and phonics. He plans to push for passage of charter school legislation. He supports school vouchers, but says they are a "non-starter" in Maryland.

Abortion

While Ehrlich generally supports a woman's basic right to have an abortion, he has opposed using public money to pay for abortions and would like to ban late-term abortions. However, he says he would not seek changes to Maryland's abortion laws.

Guns / Crime

Ehrlich vows to bring Project Exile to Maryland, a program in which criminals convicted of certain gun crimes get harsher federal prison sentences, often far from home. He wants to review some state gun control laws to see if they're working, such as ballistic fingerprinting for handguns and the Handgun Roster Board, which decides which gun models can be sold in Maryland. He proposes overhauling the Department of Juvenile Justice, giving the state education department responsibility for schooling detained youths, and increasing drug and mental health treatment within the system.

Environment

Ehrlich promises to upgrade the state's sewage treatment plants, which many agree is the largest source of water pollution in the Chesapeake and its tributaries. He says he would "revisit" a law designed to limit agricultural runoff into the bay, to encourage compliance.

Health care

Ehrlich pledges to make more drug-treatment beds available in Baltimore, and to expand access to health care for the poor, but has offered no specific plans to do either. He says he would lobby the federal government to increase Medicaid funding to the state.

Budget / Gambling

Ehrlich contends he can repair the $1.7 billion budget shortfall without sales- or income-tax increases, and without laying off state workers. Rather, he wants to raise money by installing slot machines at racetracks -- a policy he estimates could raise as much as $800 million a year once it gets rolling. He has not ruled out increases in gasoline tax and other levies. He proposes saving money through 4 percent cuts to state agencies, and by offering early-retirement incentives to state employees, and not filling the jobs of those who leave.

Economic development

Townsend says she would further support the Maryland Technology Development Corp., which she helped launch, and would provide targeted tax and investment incentives for biotechnology companies and those in other fields. She pledges to create "rapid response teams" to provide small and minority-owned business with technical assistance, and says she would convene a Governor's Council of Economic Advisors.

Education

Townsend promises to fund the recommendations of the Thornton Commission to provide an additional $1.3 billion over six years for public schools. She pledges greater assistance for early-childhood education, and is backing smaller class sizes and greater help for principals and teachers, without identifying funding sources. She wants character education in every school, and says she would help place experienced principals in the lowest performing schools.

Abortion

Townsend is a vocal supporter of a woman's right to choose, and has received endorsements, money and other assistance from pro-choice and women's groups, including EMILY's List, Planned Parenthood and the National Organization for Women.

Guns/Crime

Townsend has pledged to keep tough gun laws on the books, and has proposed expanding the state's ballistic fingerprinting program to include certain assault weapons and automatic weapons. She has pledged to expand her HotSpot Communities initiative to turn troubled neighborhoods into places with good schools, drug treatment and jobs. She says the juvenile justice department she oversaw is being reformed, and that drug treatment will be expanded.

Environment

Townsend says she would continue and refine Gov. Parris N. Glendening's Smart Growth policies, in part by reinvesting in older neighborhoods. She says she will work to implement the Chesapeake Bay Agreement, and will work to restore streams that flow into the bay, and would keep sewage out.

Health care

Townsend has a plan to lower prescription drug prices for thousands of senior citizens, and says she would expand a children's health program to include their parents. She says she would invest more in community health centers, and would make sure people with disabilities get subsidized health coverage so they can hold jobs.

Budget/Gambling

Townsend's plan for closing a $1.7 billion state budget gap over the next two years relies on a combination of cuts, transfers and the possibility of a tobacco tax increase. She has also proposed selling a portion of the state's tobacco settlement revenue stream to get money upfront. She has called for a top-to-bottom review of all departments, and has pledged not to decrease local aid or public safety funds while increasing spending on education. She is opposed to expanded gambling through slot machines, saying social costs would outweigh benefits.