If Kathleen Kennedy Townsend wins next week's election, she would become Maryland's first female governor, and the first lieutenant governor to succeed his or her boss in modern state history. She'd also become the first Kennedy woman elected in her own right.

But that "if" looms larger now than ever before.

A half-year ago, a Townsend victory seemed practically inevitable. With near-universal name recognition, no significant primary opposition and millions in the bank, she was cruising to what some observers were calling a coronation.

For now, however, the crown remains in its case.

Since July, polls have shown Townsend locked in a surprisingly tight race with U.S. Rep. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr., a Republican from Timonium.

Her advantages neutralized, she is now fighting for every vote. She's struggling to distance herself from her increasingly unpopular political mentor, Gov. Parris N. Glendening, while she attempts to lay out programs affordable to a state facing a $1.7 billion budget gap.

As she articulates her philosophy of government - one that functions best when it works with its citizens rather than for them - she has been repeatedly hammering at differences between herself and Ehrlich.

"This is a serious campaign with a serious fight over the future of our families," Townsend sternly told supporters at a Montgomery County campaign rally recently. "What kind of education our children are going to enjoy, what kind of health care our families are going to be able to get. This is an election about making sure that we are going to protect the rights of working men and women, and whether we are going to have an inclusive and diverse administration."

Townsend says inclusion and public service were impressed on her as a child, growing up in one of the nation's most storied political families.

The eldest daughter of Robert and Ethel Kennedy, Townsend says she never thought of seeking office on her own until the women's movement of the 1960s and 1970s opened her mind to the possibility.

Shortly after moving to Maryland, she mounted an unsuccessful bid for Congress in the 1986 2nd District election, losing to Helen Delich Bentley. Later, she toiled in the state education department and as a Justice Department lawyer before Glendening selected her as his running mate.

When she launched her own run last spring, Townsend talked widely about how she would build on the eight-year record of the Glendening-Townsend administration.

Maryland's AAA bond rating and investments in higher education, public schools and the environment left the state positioned to enter what she called "Maryland's moment."

Townsend issued a 32-page "blueprint" that outlined her priorities on education, health care, economic development, traffic and other issues.

She pledged to build the Intercounty Connector, a much-studied highway in Montgomery County; to lower prescription drug prices for senior citizens; and to reduce class sizes in schools.

Shift in public focus

But those issues are only some of what has been on the minds of voters.

For the past month, attention in the populous Washington suburbs has been focused on the sniper shootings. No one knows how the killings will affect voters' decisions, although most observers agree they will have some impact on the race.

At the same time, concern about Maryland's worsening fiscal condition has swelled, and questions are mounting about whether Glendening has done enough to curtail spending. Polls show that likely voters are more confident about her opponent's ability to solve the budget mess.

In the past several weeks, the candidates have launched negative ad campaigns. The result: Both nominees' disapproval ratings are up, and growing numbers of likely voters are expressing dissatisfaction with both candidates.

The shootings, television ads and budget deficit have dampened excitement in the late stages of the race, experts say, making politics a tough sell.

"An enthusiastic vote and an unenthusiastic vote counts the same," said Del. Cheryl C. Kagan, a Montgomery County Democrat and campaign consultant. "This race is going to be decided by turnout, and by where the less enthusiastic people land when they make their minds up."

Some of Townsend's ideas could be too subtle to generate excitement, critics say.

She sometimes weaves fine details of policy discussions into the larger themes of her campaigns, displaying a penchant for the inner workings of government developed during her years as a bureaucrat.

In some speeches, she mentions her role as an assistant attorney general overseeing sewage issues. Her platform includes a plan to allow poorly performing sewage plants to pay money to cleaner plants, creating a market-based system that in theory provides incentives for some plants to make improvements.

Critics find fault in those messages and others.

"Her campaign can be best epitomized by her opening speech, when she talked about 'indispensable destiny,'" said Martin G. Madden, the former Senate minority leader from Howard County and an Ehrlich supporter. "That phrase just confirms what a lot of people think: that this is a campaign out of touch with the real problems of Marylanders."

Townsend has also been dogged by questions about her performance as lieutenant governor, running the state's anti-crime programs.

In 1999, The Sun exposed beatings of inmates by guards at the state's juvenile boot camps. Townsend said she didn't know about the problem, and was initially slow to respond to calls for reform. Recently, the state settled a lawsuit on behalf of young offenders for $4.6 million.

The U.S. Attorney's Office has been investigating whether grants distributed by another office overseen by Townsend, the Governor's Office of Crime Control and Prevention, were doled out to curry political favors. Townsend calls the probe "political garbage" from a Republican appointee.

In an effort to bolster the management credentials of a Townsend administration, the lieutenant governor selected retired Adm. Charles R. Larson, a former commander of the Pacific Fleet and a longtime Republican, as a running mate.

The choice angered some African-Americans, who were dismayed that a qualified black politician was not selected for the spot. Blacks make up 28 percent of Maryland's population, and are a core Democratic constituency.

Responding to that frustration, Townsend has worked diligently to shore up African-American support with a series of pledges. Prince George's County, which is 75 percent nonwhite, would receive the next state office building. This month, she signed a commitment with Baltimore African-American leaders outlining community-specific educational, economic and health-care goals.

"The African-American community has gotten excited over the fact that there are some things that we can see that will be delivered," said Del. Talmadge Branch, a Baltimore Democrat and past head of the black legislative caucus.

Supporters have urged her to speak more forcefully, to tell people what she truly believes in, what she would do if elected.

She took the advice to heart. In late September, during the only televised debate of the race, she delivered a high-powered performance that allies say was a highlight of the race.

In her opening statement, she made a bold defense of race-based affirmative action, a position that fell on friendly ears at historically black Morgan State University. The partisan crowd ate it up, booing down Ehrlich before he could deliver his opening remarks.

"I think the momentum of Kathleen's campaign picked up directly after the debate," said Branch. "As a result of that, viewers were able to see what she stood for."

Polls have yet to show it, but supporters think the performance gave her a bounce.

"In the last few weeks, they have done a fantastic job showing the large differences between her campaign and the Republican campaign with regard to major issues that affect families in the state," said Del. William H. Cole IV, a Baltimore Democrat. "They are working extremely hard all over the region, and not taking anything for granted. Nor can they afford to."

Schools and health

Townsend's most detailed plans center on education and health care.

She says she will find the money for a legislatively approved plan to pump an additional $1.3 billion into public education over six years. She promises smaller classes, and to support teachers and principals. She is less specific about how she'll pay for all that, saying a rebounding economy will spin off the needed money.

Townsend has offered a five-point health care proposal that includes reducing prescription drug prices for the low-income elderly by up to 35 percent.

She would also expand a state health plan that covers 100,000 low-income children to include their parents. She says she would raise cigarette taxes by 36 cents a pack to generate $100 million a year, at first to help balance the budget, and in future years to pay for more health coverage.

"She is exactly where we wish all candidates were on health care," said Vincent DeMarco, head of the advocacy group Health Care for All.

Townsend may have found success in driving home differences between herself and Ehrlich, but she's been less successful in drawing distinctions between herself and the man who put her in the position she's now in: Parris Glendening.

Townsend has acknowledged the difficulty of understudies finding their own voice. Her challenges are compounded by Glendening's dismal approval ratings, and the state's worsening fiscal outlook.

"In a way, I think Kathleen is struggling with the worst of both worlds," said Kagan, the Montgomery County delegate. "She gets blamed for any Glendening missteps, and gets very little credit for any of the administration's successes."

Kathleen Kennedy Townsend

Age: 51

Home: Ruxton, Baltimore County

Education: Harvard University, cum laude graduate with B.A. in literature and American history; law degree, University of New Mexico.

Family: Husband, David; daughters Meaghan, 24, Maeve, 22; Kate, 18, Kerry, 10.

Experience: Assistant attorney general, Maryland, 1985-1986; executive director, Maryland Student Service Alliance, State Department of Education, 1987-1993; U.S. Department of Justice, 1993-1994; lieutenant governor, 1995-present.

Running mate: Charles R. Larson, retired admiral and former superintendent of the Naval Academy.

THE ISSUES

Economic development

Ehrlich says he would increase minority access to state contracts, and start a pilot program to help fund minority start-up companies. He plans to improve the stature of the Department of Business and Economic Development by aggressively promoting Maryland's business opportunities.

Education

Ehrlich says he would fully fund the Thornton Commission recommendations for increased public school spending of $1.3 billion over six years. He plans to convene "Thornton II," a panel that would look at teaching practices such as social promotion and phonics. He plans to push for passage of charter school legislation. He supports school vouchers, but says they are a "non-starter" in Maryland.

Abortion

While Ehrlich generally supports a woman's basic right to have an abortion, he has opposed using public money to pay for abortions and would like to ban late-term abortions. However, he says he would not seek changes to Maryland's abortion laws.

Guns / Crime

Ehrlich vows to bring Project Exile to Maryland, a program in which criminals convicted of certain gun crimes get harsher federal prison sentences, often far from home. He wants to review some state gun control laws to see if they're working, such as ballistic fingerprinting for handguns and the Handgun Roster Board, which decides which gun models can be sold in Maryland. He proposes overhauling the Department of Juvenile Justice, giving the state education department responsibility for schooling detained youths, and increasing drug and mental health treatment within the system.

Environment

Ehrlich promises to upgrade the state's sewage treatment plants, which many agree is the largest source of water pollution in the Chesapeake and its tributaries. He says he would "revisit" a law designed to limit agricultural runoff into the bay, to encourage compliance.

Health care

Ehrlich pledges to make more drug-treatment beds available in Baltimore, and to expand access to health care for the poor, but has offered no specific plans to do either. He says he would lobby the federal government to increase Medicaid funding to the state.

Budget / Gambling

Ehrlich contends he can repair the $1.7 billion budget shortfall without sales- or income-tax increases, and without laying off state workers. Rather, he wants to raise money by installing slot machines at racetracks -- a policy he estimates could raise as much as $800 million a year once it gets rolling. He has not ruled out increases in gasoline tax and other levies. He proposes saving money through 4 percent cuts to state agencies, and by offering early-retirement incentives to state employees, and not filling the jobs of those who leave.

Economic development

Townsend says she would further support the Maryland Technology Development Corp., which she helped launch, and would provide targeted tax and investment incentives for biotechnology companies and those in other fields. She pledges to create "rapid response teams" to provide small and minority-owned business with technical assistance, and says she would convene a Governor's Council of Economic Advisors.

Education

Townsend promises to fund the recommendations of the Thornton Commission to provide an additional $1.3 billion over six years for public schools. She pledges greater assistance for early-childhood education, and is backing smaller class sizes and greater help for principals and teachers, without identifying funding sources. She wants character education in every school, and says she would help place experienced principals in the lowest performing schools.

Abortion

Townsend is a vocal supporter of a woman's right to choose, and has received endorsements, money and other assistance from pro-choice and women's groups, including EMILY's List, Planned Parenthood and the National Organization for Women.

Guns/Crime

Townsend has pledged to keep tough gun laws on the books, and has proposed expanding the state's ballistic fingerprinting program to include certain assault weapons and automatic weapons. She has pledged to expand her HotSpot Communities initiative to turn troubled neighborhoods into places with good schools, drug treatment and jobs. She says the juvenile justice department she oversaw is being reformed, and that drug treatment will be expanded.

Environment

Townsend says she would continue and refine Gov. Parris N. Glendening's Smart Growth policies, in part by reinvesting in older neighborhoods. She says she will work to implement the Chesapeake Bay Agreement, and will work to restore streams that flow into the bay, and would keep sewage out.

Health care

Townsend has a plan to lower prescription drug prices for thousands of senior citizens, and says she would expand a children's health program to include their parents. She says she would invest more in community health centers, and would make sure people with disabilities get subsidized health coverage so they can hold jobs.

Budget/Gambling

Townsend's plan for closing a $1.7 billion state budget gap over the next two years relies on a combination of cuts, transfers and the possibility of a tobacco tax increase. She has also proposed selling a portion of the state's tobacco settlement revenue stream to get money upfront. She has called for a top-to-bottom review of all departments, and has pledged not to decrease local aid or public safety funds while increasing spending on education. She is opposed to expanded gambling through slot machines, saying social costs would outweigh benefits.