SCOUTING REPORT
Ravens run offense vs. Jaguars run defense -- RAVENS
Ranked 26th in run defense, the Jaguars have held only one starting running back (the New York Jets' Curtis Martin) under 82 yards rushing this season. The Ravens, who have the 18th-ranked running attack, will run behind a line that remains a mystery. With right tackle Ethan Brooks banged up, the Ravens will either move left guard Edwin Mulitalo to right tackle and start Casey Rabach at left guard or throw in backup Damion Cook at right tackle. In his past three games, Ravens running back Jamal Lewis has averaged 113 yards rushing and scored three touchdowns.
Key stat: 5.0. Average yards per carry given up by Jacksonville in its past two games.
Ravens pass offense vs. Jaguars pass defense -- JAGUARS
The Ravens have the 31st-ranked passing game, bettering only the Houston Texans. Chris Redman has yet to surpass 212 yards passing this season but has played under control for the most part. He has thrown only three interceptions in 154 attempts -- the second-lowest percentage in the AFC. Receiver Brandon Stokley, who missed last week with a high ankle sprain, is expected to return. The Jaguars are giving up 6.1 yards per pass attempt, eighth best in the league. Cornerback Fernando Bryant has reinvigorated his career, and the other cornerback, Jason Craft, has held up despite continually getting tested. Jacksonville is susceptible in its nickel and dime packages because reserve cornerbacks Kiwaukee Thomas and Ike Charlton have struggled.
Key stat: 31.4. Ravens' third-down conversion rate, which ranks sixth worst in the NFL.
Jaguars run offense vs. Ravens run defense -- RAVENS
For the second straight week, the Ravens are going against a running back coming back from a season-ending injury. Last Sunday, the Ravens shut down the Colts' Edgerrin James without Ray Lewis and will likely be without him today, when they try to contain the Jaguars' Fred Taylor. Lewis is still mending from a partially dislocated left shoulder, but his teammates are better prepared to handle his absence. Ranked eighth against the run, the Ravens face Jacksonville's seventh-ranked rushing attack. Although the Ravens have gone against Taylor just once in two years because of injuries, they consider stopping him a priority with Jacksonville quarterback Mark Brunell not 100 percent.
Key stat: 41. Rushing yards per game by Jaguars running backs in their past four games against the Ravens. Taylor missed three of them due to injuries.
Jaguars pass offense vs. Ravens pass defense -- EVEN
Jacksonville has a decided advantage if Brunell plays. But a concussion suffered last Sunday could push erratic backup David Garrard onto the field. Either way, the Ravens will keep a close watch on receiver Jimmy Smith, who has averaged 112 yards receiving in 12 games against the Ravens. Applying pressure will be key because Jacksonville is starting a makeshift line. Peter Boulware has been a consistent threat, racking up 15 sacks in 10 games against the Jaguars.
Key stat: 7. 300-yard passing games by Brunell in 11 career games against the Ravens.
Special teams -- RAVENS
The Ravens could win the field-position battle since the Jaguars have not helped themselves in the return game. Jacksonville has averaged a league-worst 14.1 yards on kickoff returns and just 4.4 yards on punt returns when taking away Bobby Shaw's 69-yard touchdown runback two weeks ago. Jaguars punter Chris Hanson is boasting a 47.9-yard average. Their kicker, rookie Hayden Epstein, has missed all three attempts beyond 40 yards. Last Sunday, Jacksonville got fooled badly on a fake punt, which led to a field goal.
Key stat: 1. Touchbacks on Ravens kickoff specialist J.R. Jenkins' past 19 tries.
Intangibles -- RAVENS
After losing the first eight games in this series, the Ravens have won the past four meetings. If the Ravens want to stay in playoff contention, they have to win their home games against teams like the Jaguars. With the Pittsburgh Steelers on the horizon, the Ravens realize today's game may have a ripple effect. That's a motivational advantage.
Prediction -- RAVENS
The Ravens know they can play without Ray Lewis. The Jaguars cannot say the same without a healthy Brunell. The Ravens won't let this one slip away, escaping with a 21-17 win over Jacksonville.
BREAK DOWN
Records
Jaguars 3-2 Ravens 2-3
Line
Ravens by 1 1/2
Vs. spread
Jaguars 4-1 Ravens 3-2
Series
Jaguars lead 8-4
Last meeting
Ravens won, 24-21, on Nov. 25, 2001, at Jacksonville.
NFL rankings
Jaguars offense: Rush (7), pass (24), overall (17).
Jaguars defense: Rush (26), pass (16), overall (24).
Ravens offense: Rush (18), pass (31), overall (30).
Ravens defense: Rush (8), pass (27), overall (20).
Quick hits
The Jaguars' offense is the NFL's fourth best in yards per play (5.8).
Jaguars WR Jimmy Smith has 1,344 receiving yards and 10 TDs in his career vs. the Ravens - his most vs. any opponent.
Eight of teams' 12 meetings have been decided by three points or fewer.
Ravens RB Jamal Lewis has 340 yards rushing and three TDs in his past three games.
Under coach Brian Billick, the Ravens are 11-7 (.611) after a loss.
Injuries
JAGUARS: Questionable: QB Mark Brunell (concussion). Probable: DT Larry Smith (knee); T Zach Wiegert (knee).
RAVENS: Questionable: OT Ethan Brooks (knee); K J.R. Jenkins (leg); LB Ray Lewis (shoulder). Probable: G Bennie Anderson (knee); C Mike Flynn (ankle); TE Todd Heap (chest); TE John Jones (toe); DE Michael McCrary (knee); WR Brandon Stokley (ankle).
STARTING LINEUPS
Ravens offense
WR 80 Brandon Stokley
LT 75 Jonathan Ogden
LG 61 Casey Rabach
C 62 Mike Flynn
RG 66 Bennie Anderson
RT 64 Edwin Mulitalo
TE 86 Todd Heap
WR 89 Travis Taylor
QB 7 Chris Redman
FB 39 Alan Ricard
RB 31 Jamal Lewis
Jaguars defense
LE 91 Marco Coleman
LT 99 Marcus Stroud
RT 98 John Henderson
RE 95 Paul Spicer
SLB 51 Akin Ayodele
MLB 58 Wali Rainer
WLB 55 Danny Clark
CB 25 Fernando Bryant
CB 29 Jason Craft
SS 20 Donovin Darius
FS 32 Marlon McCree
Jaguars offense
WR 82 Jimmy Smith
LT 72 Mike Pearson
LG 63 Brad Meester
C 66 John Wade
RG 65 Chris Naeole
RT 77 Zach Wiegert
TE 80 Kyle Brady
WR 84 Patrick Johnson
QB 8 Mark Brunell
RB 28 Fred Taylor
FB 31 Patrick Washington
Ravens defense
LE 98 Tony Weaver
NT 97 Kelly Gregg
RE 96 Adalius Thomas
OLB 90 Cornell Brown
ILB 56 Ed Hartwell
ILB 51 Bernardo Harris
OLB 58 Peter Boulware
CB 21 Chris McAlister
CB 28 Gary Baxter
SS 47 Will Demps
FS 20 Ed Reed
INSIDE SLANT
George Kokinis, the Ravens' assistant director of player personnel, sizes up the Jaguars:
Strength
Receiver Jimmy Smith. A unique player, he's fast, big and can do everything. He's strong in the lower body. Whereas the Colts' Marvin Harrison is quick to elude a tackler after the catch, Smith can get full speed from a standstill and is strong enough to break arm tackles.
Key matchup
Ravens tight end Todd Heap vs. Jaguars strong safety Donovin Darius. Heap is a playmaker and Darius will tend to be covering him. If an offense is in its regular formation, the Jaguars will bring in a fifth defensive back if they think the opponent is going to throw, moving Darius up in the box. He's a good run defender and can cover the slot receiver or tight end.
Play to watch
Double Left Leap, Giant X-6, R-Flare. It's a pass play that tries to isolate Smith on the left side and give quarterback Mark Brunell a high-low read with two receivers on the right side. In a shotgun formation, Jacksonville motions the tight end from the left side into the backfield for extra protection. Smith runs a curl route and Brunell will look to him if he gets single coverage. If Smith is covered, Brunell can turn to the right side, where the slot receiver goes up the seam and the outside receiver runs a comeback route.