The race for Maryland governor is deadlocked and will be decided by voters who have yet to choose between Democrat Kathleen Kennedy Townsend and Republican Robert L. Ehrlich Jr., and by a shrinking pool of others still willing to change their minds, a new poll released yesterday shows.
With five weeks until the election, Townsend's precipitous drop in support since January has slowed, while Ehrlich has fortified his base in the Baltimore region and is poised to take advantage of mounting concern over Maryland's $1.7 billion shortfall.
According to a survey conducted by Potomac Survey Research Inc., Townsend leads Ehrlich 45 percent to 43 percent statewide, an edge that rests within the poll's margin of error of 3.5 percentage points. Twelve percent of voters are undecided.
Two months ago, Townsend led Ehrlich 47 percent to 44 percent in the Maryland Poll; in January, her lead was 15 points.
"We have a real barnburner on our hands," said Potomac President Keith Haller. "With Townsend, the slide has apparently stopped. It's certainly one of the closest governor's races in the country right now."
The gubernatorial contest is one of three high-profile Maryland races that are too close to call.
In the 2nd Congressional District, which includes parts of Baltimore and Anne Arundel, Baltimore and Harford counties, Republican Helen Delich Bentley is ahead of Democrat C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger 42 percent to 40 percent, with 18 percent undecided.
Christopher Van Hollen Jr., a Democrat, leads Republican Rep. Constance A. Morella 43 percent to 40 percent in the 8th District in Montgomery and Prince George's counties. Undecided voters total 17 percent.
The poll of 803 likely voters, sponsored by The Sun and The Gazette newspapers in suburban Washington, was conducted by telephone Sept. 25 through Friday. Quotas were used to make sure the sample reflected the racial, partisan, age and geographic breakdown of the likely November voters.
During the second night of polling, Townsend and Ehrlich squared off in the first televised debate of the campaign. Survey results do not fully reflect the impact of the debate on voters' views, Haller said.
Growing dissatisfaction
In the statewide election, the poll showed dissatisfaction with both candidates swelling, a result of increasingly negative campaign rhetoric and advertisements, and heightened visibility of Townsend and Ehrlich.
The percentage of voters with an unfavorable impression of Ehrlich has nearly doubled in the past two months, from 14 percent to 27 percent. Forty-eight percent of voters say they have a favorable impression of him.
"They gave Ehrlich pretty much an open field to run in August, but sooner or later, the free ride was going to end," said Herbert C. Smith, a political science professor at McDaniel College. "The Townsend campaign made some mid-course corrections. The advertising began as most of us expected it would. It's taking its toll."
The Timonium congressman has not run statewide before and was unknown to six in 10 voters as recently as January. But particularly in the Washington suburbs - where Townsend and her allies have hammered at Ehrlich's record on guns and other issues - almost all of those who formed an opinion about him recently don't like him, the poll showed.
The percentage of likely voters agreeing with the statement "Bob Ehrlich is too conservative for Maryland" rose to 30 percent from 23 percent in July.
"Marylanders are realizing that there is only one moderate candidate in the race," Townsend spokesman Peter Hamm said.
Paul Schurick, an Ehrlich spokesman, said he believes Townsend's tactics will fail before long.
"The negative strategy of name-calling and racial insults takes its toll in the short run," Schurick said. "We believe in the long run, it will completely backfire, as African-American voters and Jewish voters realize what that campaign is all about." The poll showed Townsend's popularity, too, is declining, but at a slower rate than during most of the year.
Although exactly half of voters say they have a favorable opinion of the lieutenant governor, her rating slipped from 52 percent two months ago, while those with an unfavorable impression rose from 36 percent to 38 percent.
The pollsters said Townsend's negatives were "dangerously high," though she maintained support among African-Americans (82 percent favorable), liberals (80 percent) and voters with post-graduate education (65 percent).
Ehrlich scores best among conservatives (65 percent favorable) and anti-abortion voters (60 percent).
In describing what they disliked about Townsend, voters were more likely to point to personal attributes, while Ehrlich detractors mentioned his issue positions more frequently.
Sixteen percent of voters with an unfavorable impression of Townsend said they think she is unqualified or not intelligent enough to perform the job of governor.
"For some reason, I don't think she can make some of the tough decisions that need to be made," said Elizabeth Lillard, 45, a Republican from Clear Spring. "I think she is fluff."
Nine percent don't like the Kennedy family or accuse her of trading on her maiden name, while 15 percent cite her association with Gov. Parris N. Glendening, with whom she has served eight years.
Glendening losing favor
Glendening's job approval rating continues to plunge, with 38 percent of those polled saying he is doing a good job in office, down from 46 percent in January and 56 percent in January 2001. Forty-seven percent of voters disapprove of his performance, up from 30 percent in January 2001.
The implications for Townsend's campaign are damaging, said James G. Gimpel, a political science professor at University of Maryland, College Park.
"Of the people who disapprove of Glendening, only one of four are going to vote for her. That's terrible news for Townsend," said Gimpel, analyzing the poll's findings.
"Most of those disapprovers are going to be Democrats, and a lot of Ehrlich's crossover support is coming directly from dissatisfaction with Parris Glendening," Gimpel said. "She is fused with the current administration much more than she wants to be."
Among those who don't like Ehrlich, 32 percent say they disagree with him on general issues, and 16 percent say they oppose him because he is a Republican.
Ehrlich's gun legislation record is cited by 13 percent of those opposed to him, and 10 percent mention his positions on education.
Seven of 10 voters say they are either very worried or somewhat worried about Maryland's economy and projected $1.7 billion budget shortfall, an issue that plays to Ehrlich's strengths.
Forty-five percent of voters said Ehrlich is better able to solve the state's budget problems, while 34 percent said Townsend would be better.
"I think they had assets and then they blew the whole thing, and now we have a deficit," said Helen Myers, 72, an independent voter from Edmondson Heights in Baltimore who favors Ehrlich. "If [Townsend] thinks she is going to correct that with a cigarette tax, she is off the moon somewhere."
Schurick, the Ehrlich spokesman, said the budget shortfall would continue as a dominant campaign theme. "We are going to work it harder not out of political gain, but because it needs to be addressed," he said. "She needs to take responsibility for her role in creating the budget deficit."
More voters said Townsend would care more for the environment, 50 to 27 percent; and was better able to improve the state's schools, 49 to 32 percent.
"I do believe she'd be a better person for education," said Ernest Williams, 58, a retired Equal Employment Opportunity Commission employee from Woodlawn. "Her opponent seems to be slacking in that area a lot."
Voters seem unsure of what to make of a federal probe into grants distributed by the Governor's Office of Crime Control and Prevention, an agency overseen by Townsend. More say they think the inquiry is politically motivated (46 percent) than are troubled by allegations of political favoritism in grant awards (34 percent).
Doris King, 67, a retired hospital employee from Baltimore, said she believes the charges stem from election-year politics.
"When campaigns come up, they are trying to dig up dirt," King said. "They try mighty hard to come up with something."
Support for slot machine gambling in Maryland - something Ehrlich backs and Townsend opposes - has dropped below a majority. Only a fraction of voters say the issue will determine their vote, and pollster Haller called slots a "virtual wash" for the candidates.
If Townsend wins the race, it appears she will duplicate the formula employed by Glendening - who rolled up big margins in Baltimore, and Montgomery and Prince George's counties, and lost everywhere else.
Demographic divides
Townsend is ahead in Baltimore, 69 percent to 17 percent; in Montgomery 59 to 31 percent; and by 62 to 22 percent in Prince George's, according to the poll. Montgomery voters are most willing to change their minds, however. Townsend leads 71 to 15 percent among African-American voters.
Every other county appears likely to vote for Ehrlich. He is ahead in Baltimore County by 58 to 31 percent; he leads in Anne Arundel and Howard counties by 52 to 35 percent; and he's ahead in Western Maryland 58 to 33 percent and on the Eastern Shore by 59 to 28 percent.
He has a 52 to 37 percent edge among white voters.
The poll also shows a significant gender gap. Male voters support Ehrlich 48 to 39 percent; female voters back Townsend 50 to 39 percent.
During the past two months, the poll shows, both gubernatorial candidates have solidified their support. The percentage of Ehrlich backers who say they've made their final choice rose from 57 percent to 74 percent. For Townsend, those who can't be swayed rose from 54 percent to 67 percent.
"These are people who have made up their mind early, who are pretty partisan and who have studied the issue, and who aren't going to move much," Gimpel said.
The remaining voters are harder to sway and harder to reach directly, Gimpel said. They tend to rely on family members, colleagues or friends, he said. They also tend to follow the prevailing view in their communities.
"There are a lot of folks, the ones who will ultimately decide the election, won't make up their minds until 10 or seven or five days before," he said.
Jean Harris, 54, a federal worker from North Baltimore, said she's "not that thrilled" with either candidate.
"They're doing a lot of dancing around the issues," she said. "I like Kathleen's turn on gun control. I like Ehrlich's turn on gambling, although I'm not a gambler. Maybe as the time gets nearer, there will be something that will catch my ear. It's not an exciting election to me."
Sun staff writer Tim Craig contributed to this article.