Maryland voters are increasingly worried about the economy and their own pocketbooks, and they prefer that the state's budget woes be solved through program cuts rather than higher taxes.
The Maryland Poll, conducted by Potomac Survey Research for The Sun and The Gazette newspapers, found that likely voters are willing to pay higher taxes for public schools - but a majority also backs legalizing slot machines at racetracks as a less painful way to raise revenues.
The support for slot machines - 51 percent in favor and 36 percent opposed - represents a significant shift from 1998, when 39 percent of Maryland voters backed expanding gambling at racetracks and 48 percent opposed it.
While 54 percent of Baltimore residents objected to slots at racetracks four years ago, 51 percent now favor them. The machines are supported by a majority of both white and black voters in every area of the state, except Montgomery County.
"Some traditional Democratic constituencies would be willing to support slots," said Keith Haller, president of the Bethesda firm that conducted the poll.
"This is a pretty dramatic shift in four years."
The poll of 1,200 registered likely voters was conducted by telephone from July 17 to July 19 and has a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points. The margin of error increases for smaller groups of voters, such as specific jurisdictions or members of a single party.
The results released today come as the poll shows Maryland's gubernatorial race to be a virtual tie, with Rep. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. making large gains on the early lead of Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend.
Voters' opinions on the challenges facing the state appear to be breaking more favorably toward Ehrlich, Haller said, particularly on such issues as slots, crime and transportation.
"It seems to play to the agenda that Ehrlich is pushing," he said.
Concerns about the state budget and the condition of the economy are growing more pronounced, and Maryland's electorate appears to be increasingly fractured over the top problems it believes government needs to solve.
Crime dominates the concerns of the Baltimore area voters, traffic tops the list of those living in Montgomery County, and Prince George's County voters remain worried about the tumultuous state of their school system.
As in virtually every opinion poll, Maryland voters remain most concerned about education, with one in five volunteering it as the most important problem facing the state today.
But that's less than the 28 percent who said education was their top concern in July 1998.
Voters in the poll give Townsend a decided edge in saying she would do better than Ehrlich in improving public schools.
Difficult choice
Perry Savoy, 39, a commercial office designer who lives in Baltimore, said teachers should be paid better, and he is reluctantly supporting Townsend because he thinks Democrats have more credibility on education.
"It's a difficult one," Savoy said of the governor's race. "I am not terribly excited about Townsend right now. But if the election were today, or tomorrow, and since I always vote, I would vote for her."
Crime has slowly edged up among voters' top concerns in recent months, particularly in the Baltimore area - though it's less significant statewide than it was in the 1998 poll.
Despite Townsend having focused heavily on anti-crime programs during her more than seven years as lieutenant governor, voters perceive Ehrlich would do a better job on criminal justice issues.
"It's such a big concern for the city, and I think Ehrlich is the guy who will get tougher on it," said Judith Jansak, 67, a registered Democrat in Timonium. "The lieutenant governor talks about it, but she hasn't really done a damn thing."
Townsend vowed yesterday to publicize her work to combat Ehrlich's edge. "You get the message out by talking to different groups," she said, speaking to reporters after receiving an endorsement from the Interdenominational Ministerial Alliance, a Baltimore-area coalition of clergy from 240 churches, synagogues and mosques.
"The IMA is going to be very helpful. It's going to lay out the fact that we've had the lowest crime rate in a generation," she said.
"We have a 40 percent reduction in gun-related violent crimes. Unlike as you saw Ehrlich try to attack, we've had a 28 percent reduction in the rate of juvenile Part I [violent] crimes.
"We've had a very strong record, and as soon as I tell you this, you can print it, and everybody will know it," Townsend said.
Public safety
By contrast, Ehrlich promoted an endorsement yesterday by the Maryland Troopers Association as evidence that he has the superior record on crime.
"Public safety is a priority, and it would be a priority every day in my administration," Ehrlich said. "Why hasn't this administration focused on bad guys with guns?"
The support by Ehrlich and Townsend for building the Intercounty Connector - a $1 billion highway across the Washington suburbs to relieve traffic congestion - proves to be particularly popular.
Maryland voters back the ICC 53 percent to 15 percent, with support rising to two-thirds of those polled in heavily populated Montgomery and Prince George's counties.
"I've been living here 20 years, and it's absolutely amazing how much worse traffic has gotten," said Carol Jordan, 59, of Gaithersburg.
"Initially, I didn't really think much of the ICC idea, but now I'm to the point where I wonder what other options we have. We have to do something."
Townsend's support for the highway comes after Gov. Parris N. Glendening blocked it in 1999, and Ehrlich hopes to persuade voters that he is more credible in the quest to build the ICC.
"We will focus on that in the Washington suburbs and television ads there," Ehrlich promised.
It's not clear whether either candidate will have an opportunity to make much headway with economic worries.
Thirty percent of voters believe Maryland's economy is getting worse, while 9 percent think it's improving and 56 percent say it's about the same.
By contrast, before the 1998 gubernatorial primary election, a third of voters said the economy was getting better and 10 percent thought it was getting worse.
"It's sort of a flip-flop from four years ago on the eve of the 1998 governor's race," Haller said. "But it's still only one-third thinking that the economy is getting worse, and on the surface, you would expect the numbers to be worse."
And when it comes to their own personal situations, 21 percent believe they're worse off than they were four years ago - compared with 11 percent who thought that in 1998.
Nine percent of voters rated the economy and jobs as their top concern, compared with 5 percent in 1998.
'Pretty good years'
"One would have expected the numbers to be worse because the most recent experiences have been so highly negative," said Anirban Basu, director of applied economics for Towson University's RESI research institute.
"One would have thought they would have forgotten 1998 and 1999, which were pretty good years."
With the economic concerns, voters are firmly committed to program cuts over tax increases as a way to resolve Maryland's budget concerns - 45 percent to 30 percent.
State fiscal analysts project that next year's projected spending could be $800 million more than available revenues.
The poll found more voters believe Ehrlich and Republicans would do a better job of handling the state's budget issues.
"Maybe they'd know how to stretch that dollar a little bit better," said Michelina Hurd, 61, a former legal secretary from Annapolis.
Maryland's economic and budget issues appear to be driving the significant shift in voter support for slots at racetracks - something that Ehrlich supports and Townsend opposes.
"Ehrlich has an opportunity to penetrate some core Democratic audiences if he leads with the slots issue as a generator of revenue," Haller said.
"Governor Glendening has led the crusade against slots in a very visible, aggressive manner, ... and the Glendening message has not resonated."
The biggest shifts in support appear to be among African-Americans, women, Democrats and in Baltimore and Prince George's County.
Support in Prince George's for slots has increased from 39 percent to 54 percent over the past four years.
No Las Vegas replica
"For years, I've watched the revenues cross state lines and go north," said Joyce Abell, 53, of Greenbelt. "We're not asking for Las Vegas. We're just for slot machines to boost our revenues."
Townsend and anti-gambling advocates said the increasing support for slots means they need to do more to educate Marylanders about what they believe to be the costs of gambling, including higher law-enforcement and social costs.
"I'm looking at the studies that show that it increases addiction, it increases crime, that on a cost-benefit analysis, it really isn't worth it," the lieutenant governor said.
"It looks like you are getting the dollars in, but you are having to put more police, more correctional officers, more treatment programs, and it just isn't worth it."
In addition to state issues, the poll found that voters are concerned about another terrorist attack. Seventy percent believe it's either very likely or somewhat likely that such an attack will occur in the next few months.
"The worry crosses all parts of the state," Haller said. "But they're not looking at the issue as a state issue or problem.
"They're seeing it as something for the federal government, not a critical state responsibility."