As War Emblem was winning the 1 1/4 -mile Kentucky Derby on May 4, the brilliant race caller, Tom Durkin, saw one of the characteristics that would help the same colt win the Preakness. "He's got another gear," Durkin pointed out as War Emblem suddenly opened up several lengths on his principal rivals, Proud Citizen and Perfect Drift.

Two weeks later, with War Emblem close on the heels of sprinter Menacing Dennis entering the first turn of the 1 3/16-mile Preakness, Durkin saw the characteristic that could prove to be War Emblem's Achilles' heel in today's grueling, 1 1/2 -mile Belmont Stakes. "He's very eager today," Durkin pointed out.

In Durkin's two astute observations, we can summarize the principal reasons why War Emblem is a straight 50-50 proposition to complete a rare sweep of the Triple Crown series.

On one hand, War Emblem does have another gear, a gear that he used to move away from his competition in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. On the other, the strikingly handsome, black colt cannot afford to be "too eager" in the 1 1/2 -mile Belmont, because any premature use of his reserve energies will leave him vulnerable in the longest of the difficult, three-race series.

Should War Emblem (saddle cloth No. 10 in the Belmont) become "rank" or get involved in a pace battle with Proud Citizen (No. 9) and/or Wiseman's Ferry (No. 3), there is no way he will win the Belmont.

But, then again, he does have another gear and videotapes of the Preakness clearly show long-shot Magic Weisner was never going to pass War Emblem in the Preakness, even if they went another 300 yards. Apparently, War Emblem has the fighting spirit to match his sports car speed.

In my opinion, War Emblem must get through the first six furlongs of the 12-furlong Belmont in about 1:12. Otherwise, I would look for a strong stretch challenge from Perfect Drift, who was unable to launch his most effective bid in the Derby when too close to the slow pace.

Kept out of the Preakness, Perfect Drift comes into the Belmont fresh and ready to run his best at a distance his breeding says he should love.

I am not so confident in Proud Citizen's ability to sustain his form in his fourth hard race within seven weeks. Likewise, the disappointing Medaglia d'Oro (No. 8) seemed listless in the Preakness after a compressed, hard campaign. Interestingly, Jerry Bailey has abandoned Medaglia d'Oro in favor of long-shot Essence Of Dubai (No. 4), whose best race could put him into the Trifecta.

Magic Weisner (No. 11) had the home-court advantage in the Preakness and has much to prove outside Maryland. The fresh horses, Sunday Break (No. 5), Like A Hero (No. 2), and Sarava (No. 12) are all improving and may fire from mid-back for a place in the trifecta.

War Emblem probably will need his extra gear today and the win odds will be below fair value. Yet, even though Perfect Drift might offer more incentive at about 5-1, I believe War Emblem is a gallant horse worth rooting for.

War Emblem to win the Belmont with a top-level performance, Perfect Drift second with a well-timed bid in the upper stretch and the relatively fresh newcomer, Sunday Break, third. Should War Emblem make history today, there still might be money to be made in the exacta and trifecta pools.

Here is my intended play with the $100 Belmont bankroll:

$2 souvenir win bet on No. 10, not to be cashed. ($2) $20 exacta: No. 10 over No. 6 ($20) $10 exacta: No. 10 over No. 5 ($10) $2 trifecta: 10 in the win position; 6 in the second position with 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 11, 12 in the third position. (eight combinations/$16) $2 trifecta: 10; with 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 11, 12; with 6. ($16) $1 trifecta: 10 and 6; with 10, 2, 5, 6; with 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10 and 12. ($36)

Steve Davidowitz has been analyzing Triple Crown races for The Sun since 1997. He is the author of Betting Thoroughbreds and editor of the American Racing Manual-2002.