MARYLAND'S POLITICAL Hamlet must have gazed even more anxiously from the garrets of City Hall last week.

A poll taken by Washington television station WJLA and broadcast over Baltimore radio WBAL on Wednesday threw more imponderables into Mayor Martin O'Malley's well-documented deliberations.

The survey showed Republican congressman and gubernatorial candidate Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. gaining on Democrat Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, the lieutenant governor. If Ms. Townsend's lead is narrowing with no major campaign event, imagine what the candidacy of a political prince could do.

Of course, the poll may be nothing more than a tease. The numbers made Ms. Townsend seem more vulnerable than the mayor already believes. But it made him a bigger underdog, losing to her in the Democratic primary 58-27.

So it's understandable if he's conflicted. His party's Big Donkeys don't want him to run. Gloomy Baltimoreans say the city will wither and die if he does. Others hope he'll run and win so they can get their candidate in the mayor's office.

One experienced Maryland pollster called the poll questionable - but not the trend it may have identified.

"My strong hunch," says Bethesda-based pollster Keith Haller, "is that there's been a modest falling-off in Kathleen's base. But I really challenge a 48-43 Ehrlich-Townsend race now. I don't see Ehrlich doing anything that would move his numbers."

Neither Mr. Ehrlich nor the Baltimore mayor has a bankable profile in Montgomery or Prince George's, where Mrs. Townsend has deep support. So the mayor has a big selling job if he gets in.

And not just in the Maryland suburbs of Washington. Indeed, Baltimoreans who want him to stay in City Hall could take heart from the poll: If his primary prospects are dim, maybe he won't run.

Here, though, is what Mr. O'Malley knows - and the Don't-Runners should consider.

Baltimore faces a major power outage in Annapolis. Population loss means fewer members of the General Assembly from the city. Less power equals less financial aid.

The city has two priceless assets now: House Appropriations Committee Chairman Howard P. Rawlings and Senate Budget and Taxation Committee Chairwoman Barbara L. Hoffman. But they are artifacts of a day when Baltimore got what it wanted and everyone else had to get used to it.

Mr. O'Malley must be seen in that light. He could do plenty for the entire city as governor. The Don't-Run forces are campaign-contributing businessmen - critically important to Baltimore - but their needs are not the only ones. And do we think they'd really abandon him if he looked like a winner?

Those who want Mr. O'Malley to stay in the mayor's office are also saying they have no faith in those who would replace him. That fear attaches to concerns about the readiness of City Council President Sheila Dixon to take over, as she would if Mr. O'Malley were to go to Annapolis. Such fears are not unique in the history of Baltimore. Few thought William Donald Schaefer would be up to the job.

Historically, Mr. O'Malley is a Baltimore aberration. He won against two exceptionally weak black opponents. He could win again, of course. But he might need a miracle-worker's record.

Baltimore is a majority black city. It will be run by a black mayor again and should be, sooner rather than later. Some black leaders don't feel they have the access they deserve given their voting power. That pressure inevitably pushes Mr. O'Malley toward the race.

It could be a very good thing for Baltimore.

The city's impatient black leadership could find itself moving in perfect union with their current mayor: If he's gone to Annapolis, they get City Hall.

To make that happen, he'd have to oppose his party's entrenched leadership, not a bad thing in a party that needs some fresh air. He'd have to recruit a well-known black leader from Prince George's or Montgomery to run for lieutenant governor with him. He might then challenge Ms. Townsend's strength in the battleground counties.

An O'Malley administration in Annapolis would offer considerable advantages. The city would have a new power center. Black Democrats would have someone in a statewide office and a mayor in Baltimore. Rockville-born O'Malley and a running mate from that same part of the state could ease regional tensions between Maryland's poorest and wealthiest jurisdictions.

So, after Marylanders know who's running and with whom, a poll could be something to think about.

C. Fraser Smith is an editorial writer for The Sun. His column appears Sundays.