Mike Holmgren is new to the Seattle Seahawks, but he knows their neighborhood. It is smack in the middle of mediocrity, just south of football nirvana.
The Seahawks haven't seen the klieg lights of the postseason since quarterback Dave Krieg and coach Chuck Knox threw the switch in 1988 after a 9-7 regular season. That 10-year playoff drought ranks as the longest in the NFL, but it's nothing new to Holmgren, Seattle's first-year general manager and head coach.
When Holmgren reported to Green Bay as a rookie head coach in 1992, the Packers hadn't been to the playoffs in nine years and three coaches. But after a near-miss his first year, his Packers went to the postseason six straight seasons, winning the Super Bowl at the end of the 1996 campaign.
Holmgren has the most prominent profile of the league's nine new coaches. None is better paid (eight-year contract worth $31 million), has more control (complete autonomy) or operates with greater expectations (he's expected to push the Seahawks over the top in short order).
Even if the Seahawks fail to end the drought this season, though, he clearly has a long-term future in the Northwest. That's not the case for every coach in the playoff-less neighborhood. The coaches of teams with the next four longest playoff droughts are operating on thin ice. The roll call:
Dick Vermeil, St. Louis Rams. The Rams' nine-year absence goes back to their Los Angeles tenure in 1989 with Jim Everett at quarterback and John Robinson as coach. Vermeil, 9-23 in two seasons in St. Louis, doesn't necessarily have to end the drought to keep his job, but he must show considerable progress.
Bruce Coslet, Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals haven't made the playoffs since 1990, when quarterback Boomer Esiason and coach Sam Wyche turned the trick. Like Vermeil, Coslet needs to show major improvement.
Norv Turner, Washington Redskins. Turner is on the ultimate hot seat with a new owner and a six-year playoff drought, all but one of those seasons under Turner. Hall of Fame coach Joe Gibbs, with Mark Rypien at quarterback, produced Washington's last playoff team in 1992. It's now or never for Turner.
Mike Ditka, New Orleans Saints. Coming off consecutive 6-10 seasons, the Saints haven't gone to the postseason in six years (quarterback Bobby Hebert and coach Jim Mora did it last). After trading his entire 1999 draft for running back Ricky Williams, Ditka said he should be booted if the Saints don't make the playoffs this season.
With training camps opening this week, here are some of the unfolding story lines to follow early in the season:
Brister on the spot
No player will bear more scrutiny than Denver Broncos quarterback Bubby Brister, who replaces the retiring John Elway. Can Brister complete the Broncos' attempt at a Super Bowl three-peat? Can he pull out a victory in the final two minutes of a game the way Elway could?
Brister played well when Elway was hurt last season. He had a better passer rating than Elway and won all four of his starts. But look at who he had to beat in those games -- Washington, the Philadelphia Eagles, San Diego Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs, teams that went a combined 21-43 a year ago.
Rejuvenated Chris Miller, who retired after the 1995 season with post-concussion syndrome, and second-year quarterback Brian Griese will be warming up just in case.
Passing on Ricky
If Ditka was convinced that Williams would lift the Saints to the playoffs, there were five other teams at the top of the draft that felt differently. In order, the Cleveland Browns, Eagles, Bengals, Indianapolis Colts and Redskins had the chance to draft the Heisman Trophy winner, but didn't.
The Browns, Eagles and Bengals took franchise quarterbacks, the Colts went for another running back, Edgerrin James, and the Redskins traded down to get cornerback Champ Bailey.
The shocker seemed to be the Colts' selection of James. But at least one other team, the Miami Dolphins, had James rated ahead of Williams. And remember this: Colts president Bill Polian passed on Ryan Leaf's huge upside to select a more polished Peyton Manning with the first choice of the 1998 draft. He hasn't looked back for an instant.
Baptism by fire
Five quarterbacks were drafted among the first 12 picks this year, and all but one -- the Minnesota Vikings' Daunte Culpepper -- figure to be a starter at some point as a rookie.
Assuming his holdout is not lengthy, Cade McNown will probably open the season as the Chicago Bears' starter now that they've cut Erik Kramer. He has to beat out Shane Matthews, Moses Moreno and Jim Miller to win the job, and he had tougher competition at UCLA.
Donovan McNabb of Philadelphia and Akili Smith of Cincinnati, both unsigned, could be next in line for fiery baptisms, playing behind Doug Pederson and Jeff Blake, respectively. Neither will have a lot of help.
Tim Couch, the No. 1 selection by the expansion Browns, will learn behind veteran Ty Detmer, but almost certainly will get his opportunity. The only playing time Culpepper should see behind Randall Cunningham and Jeff George this year, if any, is mop-up duty. Some believe he'll be the best of the five.
But this quarterback crop rivals the famed class of 1983, with six first-round picks, only in number.
"There were three Hall of Famers in the 1983 group," Saints president Bill Kuharich said. "There is no John Elway, no Dan Marino -- there might be a Jim Kelly -- in this group. There will be a Todd Blackledge and a Ken O'Brien."
Blackledge bombed, and O'Brien was a solid but unspectacular pro.
Toughing it out
Of the six players who got hit with franchise tags in the off-season, only one has a contract at the start of camp. That's wide receiver Terrell Owens of the San Francisco 49ers, who received a seven-year, $34.2 million contract with a $7.5 million signing bonus 11 days ago.
Limbo is the location of the other five -- wide-outs Antonio Freeman of Green Bay, Carl Pickens of Cincinnati and Rob Moore of the Arizona Cardinals, offensive tackle Richmond Webb of Miami and defensive end Chidi Ahanotu of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This may take awhile.
Last season, six of nine players who wore the franchise tag held out through most of training camp, and one -- defensive tackle Dan Williams of Kansas City -- missed the entire season. The three who were not holdouts went to camp with different teams from the ones that tagged them.
Seems like a lesson in there somewhere.
The genius is in
Bill Walsh is back for his third tour with the 49ers, and he's running the show now as general manager. Here's a progress report: He drafted nose tackle Reggie McGrew of Florida with the 24th pick of the first round. McGrew missed eight games the last two years with injuries.
He drafted defensive end Chike Okeafor of Purdue in the third round. Okeafor's rap sheet includes an arrest on marijuana charges in 1995 and a season-long suspension in 1997 for detrimental conduct.
He signed running back Lawrence Phillips to a two-year, $1.75 million contract this week.
Good luck, Niners.
Heads up
Among the changes on the sideline that bear watching are these: Passed over for head coaching jobs because he didn't call the plays in Green Bay under Holmgren, Packers offensive coordinator Sherman Lewis gets the chance under Ray Rhodes. Lewis wants quarterback Brett Favre to go deep more often, and he'll experiment with Favre in the shotgun.
Jacksonville Jaguars coach Tom Coughlin lost both coordinators to head coaching jobs in the off-season -- Chris Palmer to Cleveland and Dick Jauron to Chicago. As a result, Coughlin will call the offensive plays, and Dom Capers, deposed in Carolina, will bring his zone-blitz schemes to the Jaguars.
Counting down
At the start of training camp, this is how the NFL stacks up in the race to the Super Bowl:
1998
Team rec. Skinny
1. Vikings 15-1 So much talent, such huge expectations.
2. Jaguars 11-5 Coordinator Dom Capers and safety Carnell Lake make the difference.
3. Broncos 14-2 Is Mike Shanahan a better coach than John Elway was a quarterback?
4. Jets 12-4 Vinny Testaverde will lament his patchwork offensive line.
5. Packers 11-5 Did Mike Holmgren or Brett Favre throw all those TD passes?
6. Dolphins 10-6 Jimmy Johnson's three-year plan is in its fourth season.
7. Falcons 14-2 Atlanta has never had back-to-back winning seasons.
8. Bills 10-6 In Doug Flutie and Rob Johnson, they have the NFL's top QB combination.
9. Seahawks 8-8 Holmgren's acid test is winning big with QB Jon Kitna.
10. 49ers 12-4 Steve Mariucci and Steve Young are holding this team together.
11. Titans 8-8 Steve McNair has to shoulder a bigger load on offense.
12. Cowboys 10-6 Emmitt Smith turned back the clock in '98; can Michael Irvin in '99?
13. Giants 8-8 How Kerry Collins responds will determine the Giants' season.
14. Saints 6-10 Ricky Williams will be running behind three former first-round picks.
15. Steelers 7-9 Everything rides on Kordell Stewart's return to '97 form.
16. Bucs 8-8 Without a passing game, they'll miss the playoffs again.
17. Cardinals 9-7 Losing leaders Lomas Brown, Larry Centers and Jamir Miller will hurt.
18. Patriots 9-7 A veteran team is suddenly counting on rookies.
19. Raiders 8-8 Willie Shaw's defense made them competitive a year ago.
20. Ravens 6-10 Brian Billick isn't in Minnesota any more.
21. Redskins 6-10 Turnover appears to be the theme for the '99 Redskins.
22. Chiefs 7-9 Gunther Cunningham will clean up their image, at least.
23. Colts 3-13 Peyton Manning looks marvelous; the defense still looks bad.
24. Browns 0-0 They didn't get Billick, but they've got a good start.
25. Rams 4-12 Trent Green and Marshall Faulk won't work any miracles.
26. Bengals 3-13 This team is remarkable only for its dullness.
27. Lions 5-11 Barry Sanders left them high and dry.
28. Eagles 3-13 Andy Reid may have jumped too quickly at this sinkhole.
29. Panthers 4-12 George Seifert wanted to prove a point; this isn't the one he had in mind.
30. Bears 4-12 The Bad News Bears have become a national laughingstock.
31. Chargers 5-11 Just imagine; GM Bobby Beathard used to be good at this.
-- Ken Murray