WASHINGTON -- If you stood in the crowd at Al Gore's campaign kickoff in Tennessee this week, you might conclude that next year had already arrived.
Gore declared his candidacy by taking some surprising jabs at George W. Bush, something that typically would happen only after both men had secured their parties' nominations. Gore supporters hoisted anti-Bush signs on the Carthage, Tenn., town square, including a huge banner proclaiming: "Gore is a Rocky Top Mountain. George is a Bush."
It is, of course, premature to assume that a Gore-Bush matchup will materialize. The primaries are seven months away, and most Americans are paying little or no attention to the candidates. Still, Gore and Bush are favored to become the nominees, and the dimensions of their potential duel are already becoming clear.
As both men begin running in earnest, they seem to be taking unusually early aim at the general election, and each other, while largely ignoring the opposition in their own parties.
Most striking of all, however, is the degree to which Bush, in his first try at national office, appears to be controlling the pace and thrust of the 2000 campaign.
"A lot of the other candidates are basing their whole campaigns on what Governor Bush is doing," says Howard Opinsky, a spokesman for another Republican presidential hopeful, Sen. John McCain of Arizona. Last weekend, several GOP contenders, including Elizabeth Hanford Dole, flew to Iowa to catch any leftover media attention during Bush's first visit to the state.
More surprising, at this preliminary stage, has been the extent to which Gore's campaign is reacting to Bush and to polls that show the Texas governor leading the vice president by 12 points to 15 points.
Gore's formal entry into the presidential race, reportedly timed to follow in the wake of Bush's first campaign swing, bore the Texan's imprint in several ways. For example, Gore's recent emphasis on using private faith-based organizations to aid the poor is very similar to initiatives taken by Bush during his five years as governor.
The vice president delivered a portion of his announcement speech in Spanish, an acknowledgment that Bush, a somewhat more fluent Spanish speaker, poses a greater threat to the Democrats' Hispanic base than any recent Republican presidential contender.
Attacks draw attention
But it was Gore's barely disguised attacks on Bush -- belittling the governor's claim to be a "compassionate conservative" and his lack of foreign policy training -- that drew the most attention. Political professionals were hard-pressed to remember other cases in which a rival from the opposing party, particularly one so new to the national scene, became a focus of an announcement speech by a front-running contender.
Gore supporters called it a smart move.
"By jump-starting the general election, you're sending a message that these are the two candidates who are likely to be running in November of 2000," says David Axelrod, a Chicago-based Democratic consultant and Gore backer. "In a sense, Gore elevates himself in doing that, and it helps in rallying Democrats."
Gore still faces a party challenge of uncertain dimensions from Bill Bradley. The former New Jersey senator has shown rising strength in recent polls, though he still trails Gore by a wide margin. Those same surveys suggest that Gore's connections to Clinton are a considerable drag on his presidential chances.
Bradley adviser Anita Dunn says Gore's tactics in attacking Bush and ignoring Bradley make no difference to the ex-NBA star's campaign.
"Democrats are going to make their decision later in the year, after they've heard from both candidates," she said. "Our campaign is about Bill Bradley taking his vision and his message and who he is to the American people."
Bush, on the other hand, welcomed the attention, saying that the Democrats "must be worried." Added a Bush campaign adviser: "For Gore to be so palpably worried, it just draws attention to [Bush] and enhances the bandwagon effect."
Reversals of form
This week, as both men wooed voters in the early primary states, there were some curious reversals of form.
Bush, often portrayed as shallow on matters of substance, held his own in a full-fledged, presidential-style news conference in New Hampshire. He responded to questions about Kosovo, his tax plan, racial preferences, judicial appointments and immigration.
Gore, who is pitting his own experience against Bush's lack of testing beyond the state level, scheduled no news conferences on his announcement swing, which ended last night in Seattle.
Gore is attempting to build on the successes of the Clinton administration while distancing himself from Clinton's personal misconduct. He calls himself restless to move the country forward, but he may wind up talking more about the past -- and the Bush administration -- than about the former president's son.
"We remember what it was like seven years ago. And I never, ever want to go back," Gore says, recalling the budget deficits of the Reagan and Bush presidencies and the recession of the early '90s.
As a candidate, the vice president commands enormous institutional advantages, including logistical support from the White House and the Secret Service. He has logged hundreds of thousands of miles on political errands over the past 6 1/2 years, and yet several of his events this week were disrupted by AIDS protesters.
Bush, on the other hand, pulled off a virtually flawless debut tour, connecting with Republican voters on a personal level and, if anything, exceeding the high expectations that had been set for him.
"On a scale of one to 10, he was a 10," concedes Steve Merksamer, national co-chairman of Steve Forbes' Republican presidential campaign.
"The nomination is his to lose. If he's able to articulate a coherent message for moving this country forward, he will be the nominee."
But, Merksamer noted, "the path to presidential greatness is littered with people who were front-runners at this stage."
Much is already being made of the similarities between Bush and Gore, who would square off in the first all-baby-boomer election if they survive the primaries.
Born less than two years apart (Bush, who turns 53 next month, is older), each grew up in a famous political family, went to Harvard (for college, in Gore's case; for business school, in Bush's) and is the clear choice of his party's establishment.
Between them, they've cornered the market on congressional endorsements. Almost four-fifths of the House and Senate is already supporting one man or the other (Bush claims 218 and Gore more than 180), an unusually large number, given that both men face contested primaries.
Respective approaches
Bush is trying to avoid taking hard-edged conservative stands that would allow Gore to portray him as a right-wing extremist.
At the same time, he's appealing to the Republican base by calling for tax cuts, increased military spending for initiatives such as an anti-ballistic missile defense and a renewed push for personal responsibility.
He took some pokes of his own at Gore this week, saying that "some in this administration think they invented prosperity, kind of like they invented the Internet."
Gore is stressing his experience in government and his clean-cut image, in contrast to Clinton and perhaps Bush, who has refused to elaborate on his admission that he behaved irresponsibly as a younger man.
The vice president is also putting out detailed proposals, such as his plan for a duty-free, worldwide Internet trading zone, in trying to expose what his aides say is Bush's lack of substance.