WASHINGTON -- As the United States and its NATO allies edge closer to sending ground troops into Kosovo, current and retired military officials envision a campaign that could include tens of thousands of U.S. Army regular and reserve troops.
Some of them would not come home alive; many others could remain for years of tense peacekeeping duty.
Because the monthlong NATO air campaign has failed to halt the Serbian assaults in Kosovo or to curb the expulsion of Kosovar Albanians, NATO officials increasingly foresee the need for a combat ground expedition.
After continuation of the allied bombardment for several more weeks or months, this force would be sent into Kosovo to battle Serbian troops. NATO troops would also help return hundreds of thousands of refugees to their homes in Kosovo.
Since the precise mission of any allied ground forces is not settled, military officials say it is difficult to say how many soldiers would be needed -- or how many of those the United States would contribute.
Last fall, U.S. Army Gen. Wesley K. Clark, NATO's supreme commander, estimated that 75,000 to 200,000 allied combat troops would be needed to subdue Kosovo or all of Yugoslavia.
NATO planners will revise those figures and update plans for a proposed 28,000-troop allied peacekeeping force that would have been considered for deployment in Kosovo if Serbs had signed a peace agreement for the province before the bombing campaign began.
"It's mainly an estimate of troops that would be required to achieve certain goals," said Kenneth H. Bacon, the Pentagon spokesman.
"[There's] not a firm plan as to what sort of divisions you'd send in, a sequencing of how they'd get there, what entry points they would use."
Most Pentagon officials and retired officers say that elements of the U.S. Army's 1st Infantry Division and the 1st Armored Division, both based in Germany, would likely be part of the mission.
Other possible U.S. units include the 82nd Airborne Division out of Fort Bragg, N.C., and the 101st Airborne Division at Fort Campbell, Ky.
Meanwhile, the 10th Mountain Division from Fort Drum, N.Y., is scheduled to deploy to Bosnia for peacekeeping duties this year and could be part of an incursion into Kosovo.
More than 5,300 U.S. troops are in Albania and several hundred in Macedonia. NATO troop strength in the region is about 21,000, many of them taking part in humanitarian efforts.
Despite the relatively small number of U.S. troops -- 4,000 -- that were envisioned for the 28,000-member peacekeeping force, the United States is expected to provide a larger share of any combat mission; it might form the largest single contingent in the combat force. This is partly because of America's military might, its skills and technology.
Of the 19 NATO members, only the United States has the logistics capability, the cargo ships and planes, trucks and engineers to move and create facilities for a large modern army, officials said.
Moreover, U.S. high-tech equipment -- from surveillance aircraft and tanks to attack helicopters, night-fighting gear and missile systems -- would be a key element of any ground campaign.
The worst case
"I think you have to plan for the worst-case scenario -- invasion," a top Army official said. This official noted that, given the likelihood of casualties, NATO would likely push for the "heavier stuff" -- armored and mechanized divisions.
Tens of thousands of U.S. soldiers would likely be part of such an operation, along with thousands of reserves, who form the bulk of the logistics force, current and retired military officers said. Other reserve units would include those involved in civil affairs, medicine, supply, ordnance -- and mortuary affairs.
President Clinton is expected to call up about 33,000 Guard and Reserve members, mostly Air Force pilots and ground crews, for the current bombing campaign. If NATO sent in a ground force, tens of thousands more U.S. reservists would likely be called up.
The need for reservists -- particularly from the Army -- would rise quickly, current and former military officials said. Clinton has authority to call up to 200,000 reservists for up to 270 days, a Pentagon official said.
Possibility of casualties
Rep. Albert R. Wynn, a Prince George's County Democrat, said: "If U.S. ground troops are ordered into Kosovo, it's going to affect everybody. Whenever you have combat troops, you also have support troops, noncombatants."
Wynn called the possibility of American casualties "very disturbing."
"That's why the objective has to be set out clearly," he said. "We're not going to risk American lives without clear, definable and attainable objectives."
Pentagon officials worry about whether a clear objective for ground forces can emerge from the many and varied NATO voices.
Noting the subtle shift in official NATO and Clinton administration pronouncements toward favoring ground troops, a top Army official asked: "What would be the objective -- go into Belgrade or Kosovo? People who know nuance say we'd better start thinking about options."
What is the mission?
One retired senior Army general said his former colleagues "really want a policy statement on what the hell the mission is if you introduce ground troops."
"If you go into Kosovo," said the retired officer, "you're going to take on the whole country."
Still other military officials express concern about whether the U.S. military and its NATO allies will have enough time to train the ground forces and "shape the battlefield" -- by cutting off enemy supply lines, for example, and positioning NATO forces -- before any incursion into Yugoslavia.
"You always want more time," said the official.
Finally, there are fears among Army and Pentagon officials about casualties, at a time when Congress and the public appear wary of seeing any soldiers killed or captured in an overseas war.
Because the scope of any ground mission in Kosovo and the level of Serbian resistance it would face are uncertain, there are no official U.S. projections of casualties.
Even relatively small numbers of U.S. dead can sour public opinion and dash a combat mission; the deaths of 18 U.S. Rangers in Somalia spurred an end to that peacekeeping effort in 1994.
Like the ragged forces of the Somali warlords, the Serbs are seen as even tougher and more seasoned soldiers fighting for their homeland.
"They're no match for NATO, but they won't run like the Iraqis did," said retired Marine Lt. Gen. Bernard E. Trainor.
"I think they'll fight like hell," predicted a former State Department official with experience in the Balkans, noting how the Serbs have mythologized their defeat in 1389 by Turkish forces at the Field of Blackbirds in Kosovo.
"Their strength is learning to draw strength from their defeats."
There are about 43,000 Serbian army troops in Kosovo, an increase of several thousand since the bombing began. There are also an estimated 12,000 to 14,000 special-police units taking part in the "ethnic cleansing" of Kosovo.
The Serbian army has 85,000 soldiers and about 200,000 reservists, according to a report by Anthony H. Cordesman, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. It had about 1,205 Russian-made tanks and nearly 600 armored fighting vehicles at the beginning of the mission in Kosovo.
The tanks are deemed effective and reliable, though military officials say they are no match for the U.S. Army's M1 Abrams tank.
Weather and terrain
Yet despite equipment that is less than ideal, Pentagon officials say, the Yugoslav forces have two staunch allies: weather and terrain. The heavy clouds and rain that permeate the Balkan spring have helped curb the allied airstrikes. The West Virginia-like topography offers shelter to troops with tanks and untold numbers of shoulder-fired missiles.
One NATO officer said the tight mountain passes would be ideal for a few Yugoslav troops to halt a large armored advance. Moreover, the Serbs are trained guerrillas and have had months to stockpile food and fuel in caves and other cloistered caches.
"No one's going to fight us out in the open," said one Army official, adding that Serbs may also draw NATO forces into the cities, for brutal house-to-house fighting.
The Serbian forces may have still another ally in the region: inadequate and crumbling airports, ports and roads that could prove to be the worst headache for NATO. Officials said it could take up to three months to prepare a logistics base.
The airport in Tirana, Albania, for example, could take only three military cargo planes at one time. NATO was forced to create another runway by putting down aluminum mesh. Relief officials called for road-building equipment to shore up the sole, pockmarked route from Tirana to Kukes, near the border with Kosovo.
"The difficulty in putting ground troops is one, territorial," said Bacon, the Pentagon spokesman. "There are a limited number of roads going into Kosovo -- 14 or so. They have mined many bridges on those roads."
Moreover, Greece has the best port, at Salonika, but it likely would oppose having allied troops land there. Macedonia also has balked at being a staging area for NATO. Hungary is worried about aiding the allied effort, fearful of Serbian retaliation against ethnic Hungarians in Yugoslavia.
Training in Germany
Should U.S. Army forces be sent into the killing fields of Kosovo, they would likely begin on the playing fields of Bavaria.
Troops with Abrams tanks and Bradley Fighting Vehicles from the 1st Armored Division, known as "Old Ironsides," would move by rail from the division's base at Bad Kreuznach, Germany, and spend weeks at the Hohenfels Combat Maneuver Training Center in Bavaria, honing their warrior skills.
They would brush up on tactics, maneuvering and firing on an opposition force in a battlefield tailored to a Yugoslav mission.
There could be bitter factions to separate, or civilians and journalists to clear from the battlefield. Mines might block their path. A mock city at the center would offer a chance to fight from house to house, a dry run for the grim reality of Pristina, Kosovo's capital.
The training would also help prepare the troops psychologically for the rigors of real combat, said one Army officer, adding, "It's like practice for an athletic team."
Sun staff writer Karen Hosler contributed to this article.
Pub Date: 4/25/99