ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. -- They've got two of the nation's most exciting offensive talents. They've got perhaps the nation's best defensive player. And it still doesn't look like enough.
The Connecticut Huskies probably match up with Duke as well as any team in college basketball, but they're still a decided underdog in tomorrow night's NCAA final.
Connecticut clearly was superior to Ohio State last night, yet struggled to a 64-58 victory after leading by nine points in the first half and 10 in the second.
Duke, meanwhile, fought off another Michigan State comeback and endured Elton Brand's second-half foul trouble, leading the entire game for a 68-62 victory.
This is the title game everyone wants to see -- the Big East champion that was ranked No. 1 from Nov. 30 to Feb. 7 against the ACC champion that was No. 1 for the rest of the season.
The two teams, a combined 70-3, were too much for the best of the Big Ten. They're both athletically gifted. They're both effective in half-court and full-court games.
So, why shouldn't the final be a classic?
Because the Connecticut offense is too reliant on Richard Hamilton and Khalid El-Amin. Because the Huskies won't get easy transition baskets the way they did against Ohio State. And because Ricky Moore can't guard the entire Duke team.
Moore is indeed a terrific defender -- he held Ohio State point guard Scoonie Penn to 3-for-13 shooting last night, "cutting the head off the dragon," in the words of Connecticut coach Jim Calhoun.
Earlier this season, Moore performed similar dissections on Michigan State's Mateen Cleaves (2-for-15) and Stanford's Arthur Lee (4-for-13). And it stands to reason that he might do the same to Duke's William Avery.
The problem is everyone else on Duke.
Against Ohio State, it mattered little that El-Amin is a liability on defense. Penn and Michael Redd were the Buckeyes' only options. And with El-Amin helping Kevin Freeman on Redd, the vaunted Ohio State backcourt shot a combined 10-for-31 -- compared to 18-for-32 for El-Amin and Hamilton.
"Our pride stepped up a little bit," El-Amin said. "We felt threatened that their backcourt would try to outdo us. But we knew that five-on-five we had a better squad."
That won't be the case against Duke.
The likely scenario is that Moore will guard Avery and Hamilton will defend Trajan Langdon, with the 5-foot-10 El-Amin matched up against the 6-6 Chris Carrawell.
Lots of luck.
Offensively, the matchups for the Huskies aren't much better. Hamilton and El-Amin combined for 42 of their 64 points last night, each hitting critical shots to stop Ohio State runs. Moore was their next highest scorer with six points.
What if Shane Battier shuts down Hamilton the way he did Maryland's Steve Francis earlier this season? What if El-Amin shoots 0-for-12 the way he did in the West Regional final against Gonzaga?
Calhoun, coaching in his first Final Four, barely had time to celebrate his semifinal victory before those questions were posed to him last night.
"That's a possibility, certainly -- it's a valid point," Calhoun said. "But we are 33-2. We've played some good people. And we've had our whole team involved.
"Kevin Freeman is averaging [12.6] points per game -- today he had five. Albert Mouring is one of the three or four best shooters I've ever coached. Today, he missed three open shots.
"Against a terrific team, we'll need other people to get involved. But we've done that in the past. We're averaging almost 80 points per game. I believe we have a better game in us."
They'll need center Jake Voskuhl to stay out of foul trouble -- not likely against Brand. They'll need Freeman to get his usual garbage baskets. And they'll probably need a big game from a less heralded player, too.
Perhaps Michigan State's physical play will leave Duke drained for the final -- the Blue Devils looked tired last night, and Connecticut no doubt will employ the same strategy against a team that in truth, goes only six deep.
The Spartans might have had a chance last night, but they shot only 29 percent in the first half, falling behind, 32-20. They cut the deficit to three after Brand picked up his fourth foul with 10: 12 left, but Langdon and Avery hit three-pointers, and that was that.
Connecticut showed the same kind of resolve against Ohio State, but now comes the true test. The Buckeyes shot 24.2 percent in the second half and missed nine of 18 free throws. Think Duke will do that?
Statistically, Connecticut plays even better defense than Duke, allowing 61 points per game to the Blue Devils' 67. If Hamilton gets hot, if Duke goes flat, if Connecticut plays the way it did against St. John's in the Big East final
It's not impossible, just unlikely.
Michigan State went nearly three months without losing. Ohio State made an inspiring run through the tournament. And Connecticut certainly deserves to be in the final.
Still, last night changed nothing.
Duke still looks like the best.