AT THIS POINT in the year, the county budget cycle is much like spring.

There is much activity, but little of it is visible.

Just as sap is running up tree trunks, leaf buds are beginning to swell and daffodil and hyacinth shoots are pushing their way to the surface, government officials are meeting daily to assemble the county's approximately $700 million operating budget for the fiscal year that begins July 1. Just as we can't see much of nature's work this early in the spring, most of the budget-building is still taking place behind closed doors.

At this juncture, departments have submitted their requests, and county executives begin to put their imprint on the total spending plan.

Setting priorities

More than any document, the budget explicitly outlines the priorities of local government.

This one will be the first time for Janet S. Owens and other county executives newly elected last fall to assert a vision for the county.

The departments and programs she favors are likely to receive roughly what they have requested. Those lower on the priority list won't be so lucky and may have to shoulder greater cuts.

From her campaign, we know that Ms. Owens would like to increase education spending and provide raises for county workers.

The school board and Superintendent Carol S. Parham are putting Ms. Owens' campaign promises to the test.

Schools' hefty request

They have proposed an education operating budget of $516 million. Of that, the county will have to provide $352 million -- $45 million more than this year. (State and federal contributions make up the remaining $165 million in the education budget.)

Considering that total county revenues are expected to increase by $25 million to $30 million, the school system is not likely to get what it wants.

It won't be alone.

Ms. Owens is unlikely to be able to provide the raises county employees believe they deserve either, despite minimal pay increases under former County Executive John G. Gary.

If current negotiations with county police sergeants are an indication, many county employees will be quite unhappy.

Ms. Owens and the County Council have offered the Anne Arundel Sergeants Association Local 123 a one-year contract with a 3 percent raise.

No doubt, Ms. Owens would like to offer these important public safety officers more, particularly because Anne Arundel's pay scales are beginning to lag behind its neighbors.

Sergeants' lament

But giving the sergeants more money would encourage other public-employee unions to ask for larger increases. To keep a lid on these raises and husband scarce revenue for the programs she favors, Ms. Owens, the ostensible friend of public employees, has to take a hard line on pay increases.

Clearly, this would not be her choice, but she has limited flexibility over the revenue side of the county budget.

Like Mr. Gary, Ms. Owens must contend with a property tax revenue cap.

This measure, enacted by voters in 1992, limits the amount of revenue the county can gain through property tax collections from year to year. Any increase on the existing property tax base are limited to the local rate of inflation or 4.5 percent, whichever is smaller.

With inflation running at historic low levels, the county's ability to tap its burgeoning assessable base was limited to .6 percent last year.

As a result, the county was able to raise only about $1.8 million in additional property taxes, a minuscule amount in a $700 million budget.

Ms. Owens' alternative is to raise the rate of the county's piggyback income tax. The current rate is 50 percent of the state income tax. It could be raised to 60 percent.

Raise the piggyback

From a policy standpoint, the increase makes sense -- particularly considering the county's non-competitive police pay, its multimillion-dollar backlog in school repairs and other needs.

But raising taxes in this county is considered akin to political self-immolation.

The last thing Ms. Owens wants to do is to raise taxes in her first year.

Her strategy, it appears, will be to construct a stringent budget resembling those that Robert R. Neall did earlier this decade when he was county executive during a national recession.

Last fall, the popular notion was that a county government presided over by Ms. Owens would be kinder and gentler than under her predecessors.

Although it may be due to circumstances rather than choice, by the end of this budget process, Ms. Owens may not look so different after all.

Brian Sullam is The Sun's editorial writer in Anne Arundel County.