WASHINGTON -- Some of Vice President Al Gore's supporters have been getting a little nervous lately. Mr. Gore's campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination seems to have hit a bumpy patch.
There has been a succession of opinion polls showing Mr. Gore running well behind a couple of Republicans who are not very well known, Gov. George W. Bush of Texas and former American Red Cross president Elizabeth H. Dole. During the presidential impeachment hearings, there were some focus groups in which participants were cool about Mr. Gore assuming the presidency if President Clinton were removed from office.
Mr. Gore also has been getting some static for his ill-founded boast that he "created" the Internet while in Congress. The incautious claim was quickly seen as part of a pattern of exaggerations in his accounts of his life.
None of this is likely to be very important in the long run. All candidates run into a little rough weather somewhere along the way, then regain their footing. And everyone knows the campaign for the presidency is a marathon, not a sprint.
Well, not exactly. It is true that the national conventions at which the nominees will be chosen are still 16 months away for the Republicans and 17 for the Democrats.
But this time around the decisions will be made for all practical purposes in a period of three to four weeks a year from now with no opportunity for buyer's remorse to set in and "corrective" action taken.
The result is that there is unusual pressure early in the game for the candidates to be vetted and either pronounced sound for the general election campaign or found wanting. If Democrats are going to learn there is something wrong with Mr. Gore, the smart ones want to know early in the game so they can decide whether former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley, Mr. Gore's only declared rival, is an acceptable alternative or whether someone else has to be brought into the game.
The pressure is a direct result of the bizarre "front-loading" of the primary schedule that has developed from major states' wanting to become part of the action before the decision has been reached. Thus, the list of states holding primaries on March 7, 2000, now includes the mega-vote states of California and New York, and possibly Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
Although there may be some changes in the schedules in a few states, the calendar for 2000 now shows the first Democratic precinct caucuses on Feb. 7, the New Hampshire primary Feb. 22 and 15 other states by March 7.
With the designation of the so-called super-delegates, meaning those chosen because of their official or party positions, this will mean 49.8 percent of all delegates will be picked in that first 29 days. A week later, after 13 more states have acted, the total will be 67.6 percent.
For the Republicans, who have no equivalent of the super-delegates, the rush to judgment is only slightly slower -- 61.8 percent chosen by March 14.
As a practical matter, it is unlikely that either party will have more than two candidates still standing after March 14. And it is quite possible both parties will have settled on a de facto nominee by that point.
So what happens if they make a mistake? If they suffer buyer's remorse? At that stage of the campaign, it would be too late for new candidates to enter the contest. The filing deadlines all would have been passed weeks and months earlier.
For the Democrats, with only two candidates, the prospect is that one of them will pile up enough delegates before April 1 to be unassailable no matter how poorly he conducts himself the rest of the campaign. The one safeguard for the Democrats lies in the 16 percent of their delegates in the "super" category. They are not bound by the results of primaries in their states and thus could serve as a balancing force.
The Republicans have the advantage of a huge field. If, for example, Mr. Bush were to take a commanding grip on the nomination but then make a series of gaffes, there would be several alternatives available.
When the primary system was evolving during the 1960s and 1970s, both parties had from sometime in late February until the first Tuesday in June to settle on a nominee. Some nominations were not decided until Ohio in May or California and New Jersey in June.
In 2000 there will be no similar opportunity for watching the campaign develop. So there is valid reason for those Gore supporters to pay close attention even now.
Jack W. Germond and Jules Witcover write from the Washington Bureau.
Pub Date: 3/26/99