Older U.S. cities such as Baltimore might have little chance of re-emerging as primary hubs for big corporations, shopping districts and the middle class. But the future is far from dim.

In the view of urban redevelopment expert Joel Kotkin, the comeback cities of the 21st century will succeed by distinguishing themselves from the suburbs -- not by trying to compete in areas such as manufacturing, technology and finance.

"Cities cannot go back to what they were in 1950," Kotkin said yesterday during a stop in Baltimore. "It's not a return to the past. Any downtown that thinks it can mortgage its future to a Fortune 500 company -- it's not going to happen."

Kotkin, a John M. Olin Fellow with Pepperdine University Institute for Public Policy, believes cities can set themselves apart in three key ways.

For one, he said, cities can become centers of cross-cultural trade by relying on diverse populations and access to transportation hubs.

Urban areas also need to capitalize on their ability to create specialized goods. And cities can thrive by becoming centers of arts and culture and attracting businesses and residents drawn to an urban lifestyle.

Kotkin made his comments yesterday during a breakfast meeting of about 150 local business people at the Omni Inner Harbor Hotel sponsored by Downtown Partnership Inc., an economic development group.

He noted that Baltimore has undergone the same demographic changes as cities such as Philadelphia and Detroit, as the population base has shrunk and companies and retailers have moved to the suburbs.

In many cases, regional economies have remained strong even as downtowns have struggled against growing social problems, he said.

Rather than becoming irrelevant, cities are adapting to a new role in the economy, he said.

"Cities are evolving into something very different from what they have been," he said.

Much of the growth has been driven by entrepreneurial businesses, often run by recent immigrants.

In Baltimore, he said, nurturing small and unique businesses, such as those along Charles Street, will be critical to revitalizing an urban core.

In the past year, 80 percent of the downtown area's employment growth has come from the expansion of local companies, said Laurie Schwartz, Downtown Partnership president.

On North Charles Street, new merchants include Bank of Maryland, which opened a branch in the historic B&O; Building, the Phi Alpha Delta law fraternity, which is moving its headquarters from California to a building in the 300 block, Holy Frijoles and Deja Coffee Bar.

The city is in the midst of developing urban renewal plans for areas such as the Charles Street corridor, where the Historic Charles Street Redevelopment Corp. plans to redevelop Charles Plaza with apartments and shops.

A plan to revitalize 18 blocks of the city's west side relies on demolishing or converting properties for new apartments, offices, stores and entertainment.

The Harry and Jeanette Weinberg Foundation wants to develop part of its vast holdings by converting the former Stewart's department store on Howard Street into a telemarketing center and building an adjoining apartment complex and parking garage with first-floor clothing shops, convenience stores, diners and services.

Above all, Kotkin said, cities need to stress the unique, rather than trying to turn each street into a replica of suburbia.

"Charles Street is one of the greatest streets in America," he said, adding that the goal should not be "how to make it look like Tysons Corner. You have to market Baltimore as something unique. There are no more 1920s buildings being built."

Pub Date: 3/26/99