BELGRADE, Yugoslavia -- It's not NATO bombs that frighten Serbia's dwindling community of opposition politicians, free-thinking academics and independent journalists.

It's the anticipated backlash from Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic and the assorted police, judges and street thugs who can make life difficult for dissidents in this Balkan capital.

As Serbia braced for Western bombing yesterday, opponents of the Milosevic regime prepared for the worst.

"Every time the U.S. administration does something to Milosevic, he takes revenge on us," said Slavko Curuvija, a newspaper publisher who faces jail and heavy fines for running afoul of the country's draconian press laws.

Newspapers and radio stations have been shut, the university has been purged, and opposition parties have been co-opted.

Dissidents say bombing will bolster Milosevic in Yugoslavia.

'Dangerous for some'

"We will have a difficult situation for people fighting for democracy," said Vesna Pesic, leader of the tiny Civic Alliance Party. "We might expect this chaotic situation to be dangerous for some people."

Serbian authorities took the first repressive action early yesterday morning when they shut independent radio station B-92 and detained Veran Matic, the station's boss, for eight hours.

"For the programs we make, I can go to prison," said Matic, an internationally recognized journalist who has been feted by MTV and greeted by first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Matic said his release was as bizarre as his arrest, which came after authorities entered the station and told the journalists to back off from computers and drop their cellular telephones.

"Without any explanation or paper, the guard told me to leave," he said. "It is typical for this regime. Quite often we are banned, and there are no papers. It is so-called virtual repression. The nature of the regime is not to work in favor of a simple citizen."

B-92 is trying to broadcast over the Internet and via satellite. But it can't be heard over the air in Belgrade.

"People in Belgrade still have options and can maintain critical thinking," said Duska Anastasijevic, a top executive at the station. "Outside Belgrade, people believe in state television. State TV tells people things they want to hear, such as. 'We are powerful and everyone is against us.' "

Free hand for a purge

But it's the freethinkers who face the greatest problems in Belgrade.

"We fear any military confrontation will give the leadership free hands to purge the remaining independent forces in Serbia," Anastasijevic said. "There is considerable fear with intellectuals. And it's not just a prima donna fear. There is a real fear that they can come and get you."

They also live in fear of supporters of Vojislav Seselj, the leader of the ultranationalist Radical Party.

"Seselj is threatening all the time internal enemies," Pesic said. "He has paramilitaries at his disposal."

The regime can also defeat the dissidents by having them fired from their positions.

Vojin Dimitrijevic felt the power of the Milosevic regime in the autumn when he was fired as head of the international law department at Belgrade University.

The human rights campaigner is limited to writing reports, lobbying foreigners and hoping that democracy one day will take root in what's left of Yugoslavia.

But he expects hard times here in the next few days as the country's rulers cope with airstrikes and the continuing chaos in Kosovo, the separatist Serbian province where ethnic Albanians outnumber Serbs 9-to-1.

Easiest targets for revenge

"Revenge against Albanians and NATO is impossible," Dimitrijevic said. "But those against the wars of the last 10 years are the easiest targets."

He said the true victims of the bombing will be "the only Serbs you could count on to play a constructive role after the regime disappears."

Zoran Djindjic, leader of the opposition Democratic Party, said life after bombing could be far from predictable. Two years ago, Djindjic and the Together coalition rattled the Milosevic regime when they led street demonstrations.

"Serbia is an unstable country," he said. "Bombing is the opening of a Pandora's box, and everything can come out. There are enormous social tensions here, huge frustrations and aggression among the people."

Asked if a coup could take out Milosevic, Djindjic said, "I don't see the actors."

"Serbia has two faces -- fear and hope," he added. "We are a polarized society."

Pub Date: 3/25/99